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Powering Texas Forward:

The regulatory response to Winter Storm Uri &

our thirst for double the power by 2030

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Jared Patterson �Executive Vice President, �Able Power Management

Twenty-One Year ERCOT Vet

Current Four-Term Texas House Member

Past President of TEPA, NTAEE, & TCMA

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Advising at the intersection of markets,

policy, and reliability

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But wait… where were we before Uri?

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The problem… Pre-Uri Fragility

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  • 2019 filed HB 2908 to address Production Tax Credit for wind power
    • PTC allowed wind generators to break-even at -2.3 cents per kWh, deflating market and displacing investment in thermal generation�
  • Hogan Report (Harvard Electricity Policy Group) identified renewable subsidies as a major external challenge�
  • Brattle Report (by ERCOT) showed target reserve margin at 13.75%, but after coal plant retirements the summer 2019 RM at just 7.4%�
  • PUC responded by shifting ORDC, adding $2.5B in new costs by 2020�
  • Major ERCOT grid issue in August 2019

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The shock… Winter Storm Uri

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The response… Policy + Market Design

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The 2021 & 2023 Sessions�Texas Responded Aggressively Post-Uri

  • Governance Reset
    • New PUC, New ERCOT Board, New ERCOT CEO, New Comms Strategy

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  • Reliability Mandates
    • Winterization and consumer price protection (lower price cap)

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  • Market Changes
    • Market Redesign (PCM), New Ancillary Service (ECRS), Incentives (TEF)

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Not just Uri.

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Also, a growing peak demand year-round at a pace faster than policy can respond.

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The new problem… Demand Explosion

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New All-Time Winter Peak Demand Set

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Not just Winter, Summers have been brutal, too.

In 2022, ERCOT hit 11 new all-time peak demand records, including eclipsing 80,000 MWs for the first time ever.

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In 2023, ERCOT hit 10 new records and surpassed 85,000 MWs.

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What’s driving it?

  • Population growth
    • 1,600 net new residents every day in Texas

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  • Economic Expansion
    • Texas now 7th largest global economy

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  • DATA CENTERS
    • US has 100 GW of data centers coming online over ten years, more than 10X the summer peak demand of NYC

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Forecasted Peak Demand Growth

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The tension… Renewables vs Reliability

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The data center shock is just beginning.

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What must happen next

Accelerate Dispatchable Buildout

Gas, Nuclear, Storage

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Stabilize Market Design

Reduce regulatory uncertainty

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Plan For Long Term Load Growth

Data centers, electrification

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Texas is no longer planning for peak demand… We’re chasing it.

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The ask… What Must Be Done Now?

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The bottom line.

The next crisis won’t be caused by weather; it’ll be caused by growth.

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You’re in a lifetime contract for electricity but only know your price for the next few years. Meanwhile –�

    • Demand will double�
    • Reliability risk is rising�
    • Policy is still catching up

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Are you actively managing the market or is it managing you?