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�� Maj Gen PK Mallick, VSM (Retd)

Indian Institute of Mass Communication, New Delhi

10 September, 2024

Psychological Warfare

RECAP

OVERVIEW

Technical Operations Vs Inform and Influence Operations

Decoding the Jargon �Terminology Confusion

Terminology

• Information Operation
• Psychological Operation
• Strategic Communications
• Influence Operations
• Perception Management
• Cyber-enable Influence/Information warfare and Manipulation (IIWAM)
• Cognitive Operation
• Political Warfare
• Public Information Warfare
• Public Field Diplomacy
• Information advantage
• Or other similar terms?

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Relationship Between �SC, IO, PD and PA

Public Diplomacy Definition

Psychological Warfare

�Why Psychological Warfare? �

In traditional international conflicts, the side with the stronger military force tended to win. In today’s information age, it is often the party with the stronger story that wins. —Joseph S. Nye, Jr.

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Americans today live in a media renaissance: Consumers have a breathtaking array of news and entertainment choices; individuals can turn themselves into news outlets on the Internet; cable and satellite television, along with satellite radio, supplement traditional broadcasting networks; and newspapers from around the world are available online. —The Washington Post

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More than half of this battle is taking place in the battlefield of the media. We are in a media battle, a race for the hearts and minds of our Umma [community of Muslims]. —Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda deputy

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Indian Army Doctrine

• Forms of IW (October 2004, pg 20)
• Command and Control Warfare (C²W)
• Intelligence Based Warfare (IBW)
• Electronic Warfare (EW)
• Psychological Warfare
• Cyber Warfare
• Economic Information Warfare
• Network Centric Warfare (NCW)
• IW battle space deals with physical, information infrastructure and perceptual realms. From IA’s perspective, IW will comprise Cyber Warfare, Psychological Warfare and EW. (November 2010, pg 53)
• Land Warfare Doctrine, 2018 also states IW consists of EW, Cyber and Psychological Warfare, Page 10.

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SOCIAL MEDIA

�https://youtu.be/wwYH6TRE4dY?si=ILCM2Tf_qjAlLFeA�

“I began to understand that I was caught up in two wars: one fought on the ground with tanks and artillery, and an information war fought largely, though not exclusively, through social media. And, perhaps counter- intuitively, it mattered who won the war of words and narratives (rather) than who had the most potent weaponry.”��� —David Patrikarakos, War in 140 Characters, 2017

BOOK COVER

Hostile Social Manipulation

USA EXAMPLE

Roles and Responsibilities

• The Department of State carries out Public Diplomacy as an essential part of foreign policy.

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• The Department of State distinguishes between Public Affairs, which includes outreach to domestic publics, and Public Diplomacy (PD) / which seeks to promote the national interest of the United States through understandingly engaging, informingly and influencing foreign publics/ and by promoting mutual understanding between the people of the United States and people from other nations around the world.

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• The Department of Defense (DOD) is a key contributor to our communication and engagement efforts. The key elements of DOD involved include, but are not limited to: information operations (IO), defense support to public diplomacy (DSPD), public affairs (PA) , and civil affairs (CA) all working together to accomplish military objectives that support national objectives.

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• Broadcasting Board of Governors The Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG) is responsible for non-military, international broadcasting sponsored by the United States Government, including the Voice of America (VOA). Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), Radio Free Asia (RFA), Radio and TV Marti, and the Middle East Broadcasting Networks (MBN)-Radio Sawa and Alhurra Television.

Roles and Responsibilities

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• United States Agency for International Development The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) works to inform recipients and partners of U.S. humanitarian and development aid initiatives.

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• Office of the Director for National Intelligence (ODNI) is responsible for coordinating the efforts of intelligence agencies to conduct research and analysis on foreign public opinion, communication modes and mechanisms, and violent extremist communication .

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• National Counterterrorism Center coordinates, integrates, and synchronizes United States Government efforts to counter violent extremism and deny terrorists the next generation of recruits.

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• Other departments and agencies with specific subject matter expertise and related communication and engagement capabilities may be asked to participate in communication and engagement strategy development and implementation as needed.

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HOW DO YOU CARRY OUT PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE

How to Plan- Ask Questions

• What types of information do you want to communicate and how will this help in achieving the goals you have aimed for?
• What categories of target audiences will it help you the most to influence in your intended ways?
• What do you know about the target audiences? What do those audiences want, value, need, fear, etc.?
• What are the favourite means of information sharing and communication among the target audiences?
• How do the target audiences now view the influencer? What are those views based on?
• While pursuing your influence campaign objectives what peer competition, potential allies, and enemies should you keep in mind?
• How will you know which types of information resonate among target audience and how will you adjust your efforts according to that analysis?
• Will you need to disguise the origins of the influence campaign using deception, proxies, and digital influence mercenaries?
• How will you recognise you have achieved your influence goals? What data will you analyse and when will you assess this?

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A typical offensive strategy against a target population may consist of following steps

• Break down population into communities based on number of criteria like hobbies, politics, interests, concerns, needs etc.

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• Find the social dynamics of communication and flow of ideas within each community.

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• Locate who in each community is most susceptible to given types of messages.

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• Find out what narratives of different types lead the discussion in each community.

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• Using all of the above design and push a narrative likely to succeed in displacing a narrative unfavourable to you with one that is more favourable.

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• Use continuous monitoring and interaction to determine the success of your effort and adjust in real time.

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Professional Skill Sets that have Direct Relevance to

Psychological Warfare

• Communications technologists can provide insight toward methodologies that maximize utility of existing communication modalities, as well as identify emerging technical capabilities.

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• Behavioral scientists and cultural anthropologists provide deep understanding of human cultures, identities, attitudes, and behaviors.

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• Educators with knowledge of culturally relevant pedagogies offer valuable perspectives.

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• Historians are versed in cultural perspectives and can act as interpreters of current and future events.

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• Economists provide data models to understand and forecast financial events.

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• Religious scholars and leaders offer insight into important dimensions of cultural life.

Ethnography �A typical professional ethnographers does the following

• Learns the local language.
• Works to build rapport with key members of the local community and gains “entry” into that community.
• Spends multiple hours per day for months or even years observing how people go about their everyday business and recording these observations.
• Transcribes and codes these observations into field journals to be used as primary source materials.
• Analyses this data to assess patterns of behaviour.
• Conducts formal and informal interviews with key informants, focus groups or target populations to cross-reference different interpretations and learn the underlying meaning.

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• What kind of socio-cultural knowledge do you need to influence someone else?

• States or state actors:
• History, international relations, psychology, political economy
• Well-developed capability
• Non-state or sub-state actors:
• Social sciences such as sociology (demographics, polling), anthropology, area studies
• Problem: Very mixed capability

• What is Ethnography?

What a typical ethnographer does:

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• Learns the local language
• Works to build rapport with key members of the local community and gains “entry” into that community
• Spends multiple hours per day for months or even years observing how people go about their everyday business and recording these observations
• Transcribes and codes these observations into field journals to be used as primary source material
• Analyzes this data to assess patterns of behavior
• Conducts formal and informal interviews with key informants, focus groups or target populations to cross-reference different interpretations and learn underlying meaning

These practices enable the ethnographer to develop an understanding of underlying meanings, shared world view, and ultimately a tacit understanding of “ what makes that group of people tick.”

Professional Skill Sets that have Direct Relevance to

Strategic Communication

• Linguists and translators develop cultural sensitivities that are of great value in the selection of key words, messages, and communication formats that resonate with intended audiences.

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• Political scientists provide insights into power and influence in modern societies.

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• Librarians and researchers provide expert information access and data management skills and have country- and culture specific knowledge, contacts, and capabilities.

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• Corporate business managers and entrepreneurs have country and regional cultural experience, as well as ongoing relationships with international audiences, government leaders, and nongovernmental voluntary organizations.

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• Marketing managers of products and services are accustomed to leading the complex and interdisciplinary management process associated with building and maintaining brand equity.

Professional Skill Sets that have Direct Relevance to

Strategic Communication

• Market researchers who advise U.S. global brand management teams have developed a wide range of measurement techniques to research and monitor international consumer interests, attitudes and preferences.

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• Advertising copywriters, art directors, and media planners have proven abilities to transform copy and media strategies into compelling messages, events, and programs, as well as identify media vehicles that attract target audiences.

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• Producers and directors of films, television programming, radio, video games, and advertising commercials are expert in crafting compelling and persuasive storylines and images.

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• Artists, authors, and musicians live lives of demonstrated creativity that transcends national boundaries, and their personal stories and bodies of work offer windows into the American population.

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• Retired government officials can provide historical perspective as well as program continuity.

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Psychological Warfare

Lessons Learned…….

• Credibility and legitimacy are paramount.
• Media isn’t the only thing, but it’s everything.
• Imagery wins.
• Speed counts.
• Massage must be simple and memorable.
• Opinions are shaped by engagement.
• Listing is as important as talking.
• Use every channel.
• Research and measurement are essential.
• Communication strategy must be embedded in national strategy.
• Be prepared for “casualties”

BREAK

Examples of Others

China

The ‘Three Warfares’ :

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• Psychological Warfare seeks to disrupt an opponent’s decision-making capacity; create doubts, foment anti-leadership sentiments. Deceive and diminish the will to fight among opponents.

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• Legal Warfare (“lawfare”) can involve enacting domestic law as the basis for making claims in international law and employing “bogus” maps to justify China’s actions.

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• Media Warfare is the key to gaining “domestic over the venue for implementing psychological and legal warfare”.

• Confucius Institutes. Network of 1,086 affiliates (440 institutes and 646 classrooms) in 120 countries.

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• China now has over 400,000 international students studying at its universities.

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• CCTV broadcasts globally on television, radio, and online in English, Russian, Spanish, and Arabic, as well as Chinese.

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• Chinese embassies have successfully pursued cultural programmes and events around the Chinese New Year.

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• China’s spending on soft power over the last decade has hit $10 billion a year, according to David Shambaugh of George Washington University.

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• China’s soft power still languishes far behind that of its western rivals in most comparative studies: 28th out of 30 in Portland’s 2016 report on soft power or 20th out of 25 according to Monocle.

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Use of Soft Power

India

PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE �VS �PERCEPTION MANAGEMENT

Indian Public Diplomacy Activities

• Indian Public Diplomacy goes back to the days of Chanakya who advocated the quality of listening as one of the most important attributes of an ideal king.

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• Public Diplomacy Division of the Ministry of External Affairs was established in May 2006 with an aim to “educate and influence global and domestic opinion on key policy issues and project a better image of the country commensurate with its rising international standing.”

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• Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR) founded in 1950, is the pre-eminent instrument of cultural diplomacy.  Maintains only 24 cultural centres outside India to project Indian culture to local people.

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• Ministry of Information and Broadcasting lends support to the public diplomacy initiative with the ministry’s strategic use of the media.

PM’s Interview in BBC before 1971 War

Future Trends

Cognitive Warfare

GOOGLY

Source: https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/121206_brooksmemo.pdf

‘Although combat in Afghanistan and Iraq continues to require the defeat of the enemy on physical battlegrounds, U.S. commanders have discovered that lasting success over terrorist and insurgent groups requires winning on the battleground of perception … Ideas are weapons in the information age.

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---- McMaster

THANK YOU

Q & A