අපේ ආර්ථිකයට මොකද වුණේ?
සංඛ්යා දත්ත ඇසුරින් කෙරෙන විග්රහයක්
E M M K Ekanayake
Deputy Director
Department of Census and Statistics
Outline
Sri Lankan Economy: Current Situation
World Richest Characters (top 5 ranks, 2022)
“Twitter” Deal by Elon Musk was $44 Bn in April 2022
Current Situation
| Economic Indicator | USD Value | Rupee Value |
| GDP, 2021 | USD ($) Mn 83,878 | Rs. Mn 16,809,309 |
| Government Income, 2021 | | Rs. Mn 1,463,810 |
| Government Expenditure, 2021 | | Rs. Mn 3,521,735 |
| Budget Deficit, 2021 | | Rs. Mn 2,057,925 |
| Exports, 2021 | USD ($) Mn 12,499 | Rs. Mn 2,486,943 |
| Imports, 2021 | USD ($) Mn 20,637 | Rs. Mn 4,104,218 |
| Trade Balance, 2021 | USD ($) Mn -8,139 | Rs. Mn -1,617,274 |
| Total Domestic Debt, 2021 | | Rs. Mn 7,422,527 |
| Total External Debt, 2021 | USD ($) Mn 50,724 | Rs. Mn 10,166,846 |
| Exchange Rate, May 2022 | 1 USD = Rs. | 364.45 |
| Interest Rate, policy bank rate, May 2022 | | 17.5% |
| Inflation, April 2022 | 21.5 % NCPI | 29.8 % CCPI |
| Growth in Money supply (M1) | 2021/20 | 24% |
Monthly challenge to the treasury
| Variable | Expected Value |
| External Trade | |
| Doller demand for Monthly Imports (Avg. of 2019/2021) | USD Mn 1500 - 1700 |
| Monthly allocation of Debt service (interest and installment) | USD Mn 300 - 500 |
| Doller income from Monthly Exports (Avg. of 2019/2021) | USD Mn 800 - 1000 |
| Earnings from Tourism (monthly average) | USD Mn 150 - 170 |
| Remittances and other primary income (monthly average) | USD Mn 200 - 250 |
| Government Income and Expenditure | |
| Total Salary Bill, Monthly average | Rs. Bn 70 - 80 |
| Other recurrent expenditures, Monthly average | Rs. Bn 160 |
| Capital expenditures, Monthly average | Rs. Bn 60 |
| Tax Income, Monthly average | Rs.Bn 108 |
| Other Income, Monthly average | Rs. Bn 13 |
External Balance
Expected Monthly Deficit
= USD Mn 600
Domestic Balance
Expected Monthly Deficit
= Rs. Bn 150
Government Income, Expenditure �and Budget Deficit
Government Finance (Rs. Million)
Government Borrowings, Rs. Million
Year | Foreign Borrowings | Domestic Borrowings | Total Borrowings |
1990 | 11,644 | 13,508 | 34,733 |
1995 | 21,224 | 33,972 | 34,467 |
2000 | 495 | 118,500 | 166,273 |
2005 | 47,773 | 123,604 | 165,546 |
2006 | 41,942 | 163,805 | 264,712 |
2007 | 100,907 | 145,137 | 140,494 |
2008 | (4,643) | 314,287 | 545,094 |
2009 | 230,807 | 245,554 | 489,342 |
2010 | 243,788 | 202,229 | 421,185 |
2011 | 218,956 | 231,224 | 517,679 |
2012 | 286,455 | 202,511 | 326,211 |
2013 | 123,700 | 392,390 | 604,913 |
2014 | 212,523 | 378,721 | 615,524 |
2015 | 236,803 | 592,699 | 984,613 |
2016 | 391,914 | 248,411 | 687,655 |
2017 | 439,243 | 294,251 | 617,786 |
2018 | 323,535 | 437,234 | 979,875 |
2019 | 542,641 | 896,448 | 813,249 |
2020 | (83,199) | 1,750,887 | 1,736,986 |
2021 | (13,901) | 2,071,826 | 2,071,826 |
Debt statistics from 1990 (Rs. Million)
Year | Domestic Debt (Rs. Mn) | Foreign Debt (Rs. Mn) | Total Debt (Rs. Mn) |
1990 | 133,896 | 176,883 | 310,779 |
1995 | 289,410 | 346,286 | 635,696 |
2000 | 676,660 | 542,040 | 1,218,700 |
2005 | 1,270,119 | 956,620 | 2,226,739 |
2010 | 2,570,059 | 2,024,583 | 4,594,642 |
2015 | 5,055,159 | 3,544,031 | 8,599,190 |
2016 | 5,433,073 | 4,045,796 | 9,478,869 |
2017 | 5,664,215 | 4,718,618 | 10,382,832 |
2018 | 6,071,001 | 5,959,547 | 12,030,548 |
2019 | 3,075,912 | 9,955,631 | 13,031,543 |
2020 | 5,975,556 | 9,141,691 | 15,117,247 |
2021 | 7,422,527 | 10,166,846 | 17,589,373 |
At the end of 2021, Total Foreign Debt was $ 50.7 Billion
Money Supply, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate �and Inflation
Money Supply (M1 and M2)
Year | Narrow Money Supply (M1, Rs. Bn ) | Broad Money supply (M2, Rs. Bn) |
2010 | 407 | 1,813 |
2011 | 439 | 2,193 |
2012 | 450 | 2,593 |
2013 | 485 | 3,059 |
2014 | 612 | 3,461 |
2015 | 715 | 4,057 |
2016 | 777 | 4,824 |
2017 | 793 | 5,665 |
2018 | 831 | 6,427 |
2019 | 865 | 6,913 |
2020 | 1,177 | 8,496 |
2021 | 1,460 | 9,639 |
Demand And Supply of Foreign Currencies
USD Million
Exchange Rate (USD, 1$=Rs.?)
Today; 1 USD ($) = Rs. 364.45
Inflation
| NCPI (Y-O-Y%) | CCPI (Y-O-Y%) |
January 2022 | 16.8 | 14.2 |
February 2022 | 17.5 | 15.1 |
March 2022 | 21.5 | 18.7 |
April 2022 | | 29.8 |
Sri Lanka’s Inflation was 132% in End of April 2022
Professor Steve Hanke of John Hopkins University, USA
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Growth
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Rs. Million
Year | GDP at Current price | GDP at Constant (2010) price |
2010 | 6,413,668 | 6,413,668 |
2011 | 7,219,106 | 6,952,720 |
2012 | 8,732,463 | 7,588,517 |
2013 | 9,592,125 | 7,846,202 |
2014 | 10,361,151 | 8,235,429 |
2015 | 10,950,621 | 8,647,833 |
2016 | 11,996,083 | 9,035,830 |
2017 | 13,328,103 | 9,359,147 |
2018 | 14,290,907 | 9,665,379 |
2019 | 14,997,157 | 9,890,468 |
2020 | 15,027,374 | 9,532,909 |
2021 | 16,809,309 | 9,881,397 |
GDP in dollar terms, 2021; USD ($) Mn 83,878
Q GDP at Constant (2010) Prices
Sectoral Contribution
20
# | Industry Group | Share (%) (2019) | Growth of Decade 202 (%) | Contribution to Growth (%) | Rank (GVA) |
1 | Agriculture | 6.96 | 26.23 | 4.11 | 4 |
2 | Industries | 26.37 | 52.63 | 25.88 | 2 |
3 | Services | 57.44 | 62.11 | 62.62 | 1 |
4 | GVA | 90.77 | 55.89 | 92.61 | |
5 | Taxes on products | 9.61 | 38.12 | 7.54 | 3 |
6 | Subsidies (-) | - 0.38 | 16.13 | - 0.15 | |
7 | GDP | 100.00 | 54.19 | 100.00 | |
Contribution to Growth by Economic Activity
21
GDP Growth
Year | Growth Rate |
2011 | 8.40 |
2012 | 9.14 |
2013 | 3.40 |
2014 | 4.96 |
2015 | 5.01 |
2016 | 4.49 |
2017 | 3.58 |
2018 | 3.27 |
2019 | 2.33 |
2020 | (3.62) |
2021 | 3.66 |
Outliers
Q2 2020 and
Q2 2021
Post-war period (2010/12)
Post-war construction ended (2013)
Last Q of Govt. (2010/14)
First Q of Govt. (2015/19)
Govt. Change (Q4 2018)
Easter Attack April 21 (Q2 2019)
Global COVID19 Impact
(Q1 2020)
COVID19 impact (Q2 2020 to Q4 2021)
Note that two outliers are treated as “0”
International Trade, Trade Balance Overall Balance
Imports, Exports and Trade Balance (USD Mn)
What are the other sources of financing trade balance?
Workers Remittances (USD Mn)
Earnings from Tourism (USD Mn)
How it was balanced?
Trade, Transfers, Primary Income, FDI, Trade Balance, Current Acc Balance & Overall Balance
Monthly challenge to the treasury and Result
Monthly challenge to the treasury
| Variable | Expected Value |
| External Trade | |
| Doller demand for Monthly Imports (Avg. of 2019/2021) | USD Mn 1500 - 1700 |
| Monthly allocation of Debt service (interest and installment) | USD Mn 300 - 500 |
| Doller income from Monthly Exports (Avg. of 2019/2021) | USD Mn 800 - 1000 |
| Earnings from Tourism (monthly average) | USD Mn 150 - 170 |
| Remittances and other primary income (monthly average) | USD Mn 200 - 250 |
| Government Income and Expenditure | |
| Total Salary Bill, Monthly average | Rs. Bn 70 - 80 |
| Other recurrent expenditures, Monthly average | Rs. Bn 160 |
| Capital expenditures, Monthly average | Rs. Bn 60 |
| Tax Income, Monthly average | Rs.Bn 108 |
| Other Income, Monthly average | Rs. Bn 13 |
External Balance
Expected Monthly Deficit
= USD Mn 600
Domestic Balance
Expected Monthly Deficit
= Rs. Bn 150
The Result from April 2022
General Treasury become “Empty”
Foreign Reserves value become “Zero”
Central Bank officially announced that we are unable to pay foreign loan interests and installment
Fitch rating become “RD”
S&P rating become “SD”
Moody's rating become “Ca”
We are not in a position to borrow foreign loans anymore except FDI, free grants or aids
Thank You!�����Q&A