Multi-Criteria Analysis for the assessment of risk mitigation strategies:
from the single risk to the multi-risk approach
Simona Muratori - Poliedra
Daniela Molinari - Polimi
Alice Gallazzi - Polimi
Single risk approach MCA procedure for the assessment of flood risk mitigation measures
Multi risk approach Flood, Drought, Earthquake, Volcano, Landslide
SINGLE RISK PROCEDURE DEVELOPMENT
LITERATURE ANALYSIS
EXPERTISE
DEFINITION OF THE MCA PROCEDURE STRUCTURE
TEST ON 3 CASE STUDIES at different levels of design
Design level?
preliminary
final
PROCEDURE 1
PROCEDURE 2
NO
YES
Final design financed
NO
YES
Realization financed
PROCEDURE FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF FLOOD RISK MITIGATION MEASURES – STEP0
PROCEDURE FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF FLOOD RISK MITIGATION MEASURES
STEP1 – PROJECT QUALITY
STEP2 – FEASIBILITY AND RELIABILITY
STEP5 – STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT
STEP4 – ENVIRONMENTAL & SOCIAL IMPACTS
STEP3 – FLOOD RISK MITIGATION
no
no
no
no
no
yes
yes+
yes+
yes
yes+
MULTI-RISK APPROACH WITHIN THE RETURN PROJECT
Defining national guidelines for the evaluation of the effectiveness of alternatives of intervention in natural risks management, by considering in detail Multi Criteria Analysis
by characterizing intervention alternatives, in terms of:
- multi-risk context
- different phases of the risk chain
- structural and non- structural measures
The reference context is a coexistence of different risks; we do not consider the dynamics of a single event
The evaluation is always carried out ex-ante to assess the effectiveness of an intervention strategy 🡪 definition of indicators
STARTING POINT THE MCA FLOWCHART
STARTING POINT THE MCA FLOWCHART
The matrix “Hazards-Impacts” as foundation for implementing MCA in natural risk management
Matrix hazards-impacts
Abacus of alternatives
Performance matrix
Characterization of interventions in terms of phase, spatial and temporal scale of effectiveness, and risk reduction (in a multi-risk context)
Definition of attributes and indicators significant for Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) purposes
Definition of exposed elements and expected impacts (attributes and their respective indicators)
METHODOLOGY
Individual well- being
Built environment
Public services
Environmental systems
Communities
Businesses activities
Financial system
Direct and indirect impact on physical and mental health, displacement of people and disruption of socio-economic well-being of individuals
Physical and economic impact on on built environment, from residential, production and cultural use, to infrastructure building
Economic impact of production factors, including industrial, agricultural, cultural and touristic activities
Impact on public services availability that does not have a pure physical component
Impact on ecosystems and natural biodiversity
Impact on the capacity of the population to identify as part of a community
Impact on the credit worthiness and reputation of companies
CLASSIFICATION OF THE EXPOSED ELEMENTS
Matrix Hazards -Impacts
DEFINITION OF ATTRIBUTES AND INDICATORS FOR INDIVIDUAL RISK
Matrix Hazards -Impacts
DEFINITION OF ATTRIBUTES AND INDICATORS FOR INDIVIDUAL RISK
Individual well-being
Deaths and injuries
Impact on physical and mental health
Affected people
Impact on economic well-being
Built environment
Damage to private commercial assets
Damage to private industrial assets
Damage to private agricultural assets
Damage to public assets
Damage to liefelines
Damage to cultural heritage
Damage to non-productive private assets
Businesses activities
Impact on primary sector
Impact on secondary sector
Impact on tertiary sector
Public services
Disruption of public utility services
Disruption of utility services
Impact on emergency cost
Environmental systems
Impact on surface hydrosphere
Impact on underground hydrosphere
Impact on geosphere
Impact on atmosphere
Impact on biosphere
Communities
Impact on society
Impact on cultural identity
Financial system
Impact on financial stability
Impact on economic reputation/worthiness
Matrix Hazards -Impacts
MERGE/ADAPTATION TO MULTI-RISK CONTEXT
DEFINITION OF ATTRIBUTES AND INDICATORS FOR INDIVIDUAL RISK
TWO-LEVEL ATTRIBUTES
Individual well-being
Deaths and injuries
Impact on physical and mental health
Affected people
Impact on economic well-being
Deaths
Injuries
Impact on infectious diseases
Impact on mental health problem
Impact on respiratory diseases
Impact on eye diseases
Impact on skin diseases
Directly affected people
Indirectly affected people
Evacuated people
Relocated people
Impact on consumption costs
Impact on employment/income
Impact on poverty
Matrix Hazards -Impacts
DEFINITION OF ATTRIBUTES AND INDICATORS FOR INDIVIDUAL RISK
ONGOING/NEXT STEPS
1. Definition of indicators for the Italian context (data, evaluation method, metric)
- based on available (free) data
- spatial scales: Sub-municipality, Municipality, Multi-municipality, National, Global
- quantitative (when possible)
- use of proxy
2. Link with abacus of alternatives
3. Definition of the MCA procedure and methodology
SIMONA MURATORI
POLIEDRA
+39 02 2399 2908
simona.muratori@polimi.it
www.poliedra.polimi.it
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Contact details