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Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) Mental Models for Lobster Fishery Agent Based Model (ABM)

NSF NNA Researcher Meeting | 05/01/2025

Jay Kim | Kanae Tokunaga

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Lobster Fishery Decision Making

Complex feedback of decision making and human behavior that manifests as fishing effort

Scaled up to # active vessels, per region, per month, over years

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Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM)

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  • participatory learning and mapping method
  • Semi-quantitative metrics from qualitative variables
  • Structured or open ended group discussion and collective learning

Mental Models of lobster fisher decision making concerning lobster fishing

“What are the important factors (variables) that influence the decisions you make when you go fishing (fishing behavior)?”

“What changes (in self or environment) need to happen in order for you to change your behavior (make different decisions)?”

  • Daily fishing decision on the water
  • Long term business strategies
  • Priorities and trade-offs
  • Key variables and points of change

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Focus Group and Individual Interviews

Semi-structured, using Mental Modeler

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  • NNA All Hands; Nov 21, 2024; Portland, ME, USA
    • Practice Focus Group
  • Lobster Town Meeting; Jan 28, 2025; Bar Harbor, ME, USA
    • Focus Group # 1, # 2
  • Focus Group #3; April 08, 2025; GMRI, ME, USA

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Engagement during

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  • Maine Fishermen’s Forum; Feb 28, 2025; Rockland, ME, USA
  • Seafood Expo North America; March 16, 2025; Boston, MA, USA

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Short-Run Production Model

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Long-Run Investment Model

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Previous Bioeconomic Models

Holland (2011)

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Boenish & Chen (2016)

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Wilson, Yan, & Wilson (2007)

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Our Production Function Theory

Fishers are maximizing Catch per Trap.

Assuming a Trap Catchability of 1, actual catchability is a function of the Effectiveness of Bait, Quantity of Bait, and Soaktime of Bait

However, Effective Fishing Effort is realized by fishers as # of Traps Fished and Frequency of Trips taken

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ie: 3 sets of 200 traps, 3 trips a week

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The Fishing Strategy is determined by the type of fisher and their available capital. The fisher optimizes their bait choices for the given soak time determined by their fishing strategy.

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Population Dynamics Model

Stock Density, �Center Mass Distance to Shore, Abundance

Fishing Mortality

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Dayton & Tokunaga (2023) Latent Fishing Classes

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Current and Future Research Objectives

  • Operationalize ABM model parameters
  • Finish Qualitative Analysis
  • Analysis of MCCF Cost Survey
  • Develop Follow-Up Industry Survey for ABM

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Planned Publications

  • Lobster fishing FCM mental models
  • ABM structure, modeling, tuning, results
  • Bioeconomic analysis

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Planned Products

  • Coupled interactive model with PopDy
  • Social indicators under different scenarios