ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF GEOMAGNETIC STORMS ON FLIGHT DISRUPTIONS
Alan Propisnoy1, Alex Wang1, Arsh Purohit1, Harryram Persaud1, Isaiah Jamna2, Somdat Kissoon3, Andrew Singh3, Nazrul Khandaker3 (1) Brooklyn Technical High School, Brooklyn, United States, (2) Sophie Davis CUNY School of Medicine, Manhattan, United States, (3) York College of CUNY & JFKR Aviation and Aeronautics Academy Academy, Earth and Physical Sciences, Geology Discipline, Jamaica, United States
References
An enormous thanks to The Port Authority of NY & NJ, A New JFK, York College, Delta, American Airlines, JFK Millennium Partners and The New Terminal JFK International Airport, whose research grants made this STEM project possible.
Acknowledgements
We recognize that although our approach might be effective when analyzing the possible correlation between geomagnetic storms and flight disruptions, it might be limited due to the many factors that might contribute to a potential flight disruption. We understand that our research may not be completely conclusive, as our models consider geomagnetic storms and their intensity as a sole factor.
However, we plan to implement next steps that will address some of these limitations. For example, to improve the model’s accuracy, we might consider a more complete data set that measures other factors relating to geomagnetic storms. Additionally, we plan to add to the regression model itself by considering additional variables that might have an effect on flight time. Also data availability and accuracy of DST and AP values for geomagnetic storms is very inconclusive and inaccurate in some cases due to lack of public and accessible data on them.
Finally, we might improve our scientific method by considering control variables, in this case, normal flight patterns, or by implementing a more sophisticated method for significance testing.
Conclusion
No strong correlations were found between flight delays and geomagnetic storm parameters, such as storm distance, storm speed, Planetary K-Index (Kp) maximum, North-South orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz), equivalent amplitude of magnetic activity (Ap), and total strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bt).
The correlation matrix indicates negligible correlations: 0.019 between Ap and delay, -0.013 between Dst and delay, and 0.07 between Kp max and delay.
Note that there is a weak correlation since these values are close to 0. The scatter plots confirm these findings as data points are clustered at 0 and 1 for delay regardless of the Ap value.
However, the correlation matrix reveals stronger correlations between other variables, including a strong negative correlation of -0.81 between Dst and Ap, a strong positive correlation of 0.85 between Ap and Kp max, and a strong negative correlation of -0.93 between IMF Bt and IMF Bz. The correlation values between DST and AP being strong is due to them being complementary in nature and being intensity values for geomagnetic storms Dst measures the intensity of the ring current (negative values indicate stronger storms), while Ap measures the overall planetary geomagnetic activity. During a geomagnetic storm, when Dst is strongly negative, Ap is usually elevated because the storm’s effects are global and intense.
These strong correlations align with scatter plots showing a clear, consistent relationship between these variables.
Results
There are about 45,000 flights daily from all over the world (FAA, 2024). One factor that can affect those daily flights is space weather, such as geomagnetic storms.
Geomagnetic storms are a danger to technology because of their devastating consequences to aviation systems, such as by degrading the accuracy and reliability of GPS systems which disrupt global communications and navigation (NASA, 2022). Therefore it is crucial to learn about how they specifically affect those systems and have plans for them when they do.
Background
To test our hypothesis, we collected data on the occurrence of geomagnetic storms and commercial flight disruptions. Specifically, we gathered information on the intensities, locations, and dates of geomagnetic storms, along with similar metrics on aviation disruptions.
In order to collect data, we’ve reached out to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, who provided us with data detailing the information of every flight from JFK to LAX between January 1st, 2023 to January 1st, 2024, specifically if or when a flight was delayed and the amount of time that the flight was delayed for.
We’ve also utilized data from an open online source that mapped the occurrences of solar storms and their intensities. We then used a linear regression artificial intelligence model to assess the correlation between these two factors, subsequently determining whether the correlation was significant.
Methodology and Data Collection
Our research explores the impact of space weather variations, particularly geomagnetic storms, on commercial aviation. We believe that changes in space weather, especially the occurrence of geomagnetic storms, would have a major impact on commercial aviation.
We hypothesize that there would be a significant correlation between aviation disruptions, including flight delays, reroutes, etc. and the severity of geomagnetic storms. Furthermore, we expect to find a significant correlation between aviation disruptions, such as flight delays and reroutes, and the severity of geomagnetic storms.
Hypothesis
Our findings do not support our hypothesis that the occurrence of geomagnetic significantly affects commercial aviation systems and flight delays.
Instead of observing strong correlations between the related factors such as geomagnetic storm distance, storm speed, Planetary K-Index (Kp), orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz), and equivalent amplitude of magnetic activity (Ap), we’ve found that the correlations we observed between storm parameters and flight delays were very weak, indicating that geomagnetic storms are not a major factor in causing delays.
Specifically, our linear regression-based model suggests negligible correlations: 0.019 between Ap and delay, -0.013 between Dst and delay, and 0.07 between Kp max and delay, which are confirmed by scatter plots.
These findings are significant as they suggest that an alternate method of planning for flight engineers and planners is necessary. A weak correlation is indicative that engineers and planners should prioritize other factors that are more likely to influence aviation reliability when addressing potential delays in commercial flight planning.
Discussion
Figure 1: Image of multiple flights delayed (iStock, credit bunhill, 2008).
Figure 2: Table displaying the correlations between geomagnetic storm factors
Figure 3: Graph of correlation between geomagnetic activity and flight delays
Figures 4 & 5: Graphs of the correlation between atmospheric activity and daily average level of geomagnetic storms with flight delays respectively.
Figures 6: Major geomagnetic storm made visible auroras (CC BY 2.0, 2011)
References
Content
Websites you plan to use as sources
Copy the slide if you need more than one.
https://www.weather.gov/safety/space-storm-types- Type of weather storms
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/flight-condition- Flight Conditions
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/top-50-geomagnetic-storms/year/2024.html- Geomagnetic storms (germany)
https://science.nasa.gov/heliophysics/focus-areas/magnetosphere-ionosphere/- Magnetospheres
https://www.universalweather.com/blog/international-standard-atmosphere-how-it-affects-flight-understanding-the-basics/- Internation standard atmosphere (why it important and how it works)
https://skybrary.aero/sites/default/files/bookshelf/3702.pdf- Impacts of space weather on aviation (stats and information)
https://www.nstb.tc.faa.gov/- Geographical positions (where stuff is)
https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/matinsajadi/flights- Information on flight data set (how to do it)
https://rdr.ucl.ac.uk/articles/dataset/Geomagnetic_Storm_List_for_2012_-_2018/11535009- Data set (time y/m/d)
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/space-weather-impacts-climate- Space weather impacts on climate
https://www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams/policy/studies-analysis/space-weather-and-aviation/#:~:text=Space%20weather%20phenomena%20(geomagnetic%20storms,system%20disruptions%3B%20and%20avionics%20errors.
https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/dronio/SolarEnergy
https://www.kaggle.com/code/impratiksingh/unsupervised-learning- General Reference Data Plotting (K-means charts):
https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/techops/navservices/gbng/vor#:~:text=VOR%20operates%20in%20the%20108.0,is%20flying%20from%20a%20VOR. - Plane Navigation System Operations
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-flares-radio-blackouts - Radio Blackout/Solar Flare General Information
https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/solar/solarflares.html- Solar flare data
https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/by_the_numbers source
can u make the correlation one like a graph thats readable
Websites you plan to use as sources 2
Copy the slide if you need more than one.
https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/heliodata/instruments-solarflares - Kaggle solar flare/ radio blackout data set (more important)
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/nmp/st5/SCIENCE/effects2.html - Systems of Flight affected through Space weather
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-30424-2#:~:text=Further%20studies%20show%20that%20the,improving%20the%20flight%20delay%20predications. - Sample Research
https://www.flightconnections.com/flights-from-new-york-city-jfk - Flight from JFK to places around the world
https://www.weather.gov/fsd/sunspots#:~:text=If%20sunspots%20are%20active%2C%20more,geomagnetic%20storm%20activity%20for%20Earth. - Sunspot regions causing more SolarFlares
https://www.lawa.org/lawa-investor-relations/statistics-for-lax/10-year-summary/passengers
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18-Ed4VeI6LS6jH0OvNbuRTfvso1sTsS42zE75DOI3Fo/edit?usp=sharing- Spreadsheet data
GSA Abstract 2000 characters without spaces
https://gsa.confex.com/gsa/2024AM/top/papers/viewonly.cgi?password=475857&username=403104
Geomagnetic storms, which result from intense solar activity such as solar flares, are known to produce fierce emission of electromagnetic radiation in the Sun's atmosphere. When coupled with other eruptive solar events like coronal mass ejections, solar storms can disrupt the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere.
Between 2023 and 2024, there were about 3773 flights from JFK to LAX; of those flights, 30.4% were delayed. During this same year, around 50 geomagnetic storms occurred, which may have influenced some of these flights.
This study aims to investigate the potential impact of geomagnetic storms on flight times and delays by analyzing the deviations from scheduled flight times and delayed flights. This data was generously provided by the Port Authority of NY and NJ.
The possible reasons for these delays include disruptions to sensitive aviation systems such as navigation systems, GPS, and communication systems, which are critical for maintaining flight paths. The study explores the potential correlation between geomagnetic storm occurrences and flight delays or cancellations.
The data obtained included: date and time of each flight, if the flight was delayed, and the amount of time the flight was delayed. The reason for each delay was not contained in the dataset and will be incorporated into future research.
A linear regression model was used to analyze flight and geomagnetic storm data to determine if there was a correlation between delays and storms.
No strong correlations were found between flight delay and the following geomagnetic storm-related parameters: storm distance, storm speed, Planetary K-Index (kp) maximum, North-South orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz), equivalent amplitude of magnetic activity (Ap), and total strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bt).
This suggests that delay is not significantly influenced by these parameters. However, this could reflect the very limited public data on geomagnetic storms. In the future the model will be reevaluated and attempts to gather more data will be made in order to create a more precise model.
Other files
Abstract was here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1y8CIXCBV45kBfY3u4sq5VRHH_uTvdlysOuQid59xNcs/edit
Results were here:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1pL0JWVzM70q5mW_r9QJEu32osKLE-FOpXse2a0dJuWk/edit
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1y8CIXCBV45kBfY3u4sq5VRHH_uTvdlysOuQid59xNcs/edit- Abstract
Background info and or Introduction
There are about 100,000 flights daily from all over the world. One factor that can affect those daily passenger/crew are storm such as geomagnetic storm. Geomagnetic storms are a danger to people because of their devastating consequences to passengers safety therefore it is crucial to learn about and prepare for.