Covid 19 & Impacts

April 25

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Project Factrics

Vincent DH Lee

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Intro

Who? For whom?

• Member of SaaS Study
• 17 years for the finance division in the finance companies

- Front office to Back office, Funding to Investing, Buy side and Sell side

• SF and Bay Area 2.3 years (MBA, MSBA)

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• Covid 19, Biological War, Sudden Attack
• Invisible enemy so unpredictable
• Share the idea what happen now

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What’s in it for me? Your money / Your company / You

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Now

Global Value Chain collapse - Supply to Demand

Optimization

- Supply chain

- Logistics

- Globalization

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Reshoring

- Out of china

- Essential manufacturing

- Isolation

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Meltdown

- From Supply Chain

- To Demand

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Comments

Conditions to survive - Most important thing ?

Defense

- Cash

- Demand

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Resilience

- Industry

- Country

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Stability

- Ownership

- Support

Comments

Upcoming - Prepare for the 2nd wave (how ?)

Different

- Host

- Flow

- Response

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Resilience?

Great Recession?

- Capacity

- Chain reaction

- Optimization

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System default

- Company to Country

- Bailout & Imbalance

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Comments

(Source : KTB투자증권)

Changes

Coronomics

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Operating logics -> dynamics

Community

Past / Future

(Change/Unchanged)

New opportunity

→ New actions

Leading at conversation

Prepare all these four stages

Good

- Data trading

- Video Conferencing

- Social Media

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Bad

- Brick & Mortar

- Retail

- Travel

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Comments

Two side effects - Rising of Untact

Happy Untact

- Amazon

- Facebook

- Zoom

- Netflix

- Google

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Sad Geek

- Wework

- AirBnB

- Uber

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Comments

Quantitative easing - Endless stimulation

Memory in 2008

- Concern about inflation

- Helicopter money

- No inflation

- Somewhere

: Housing, Stock (US)

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Divide

- Tech vs Non tech

- Geek

- Inequality

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Comments

Predictions

IMF 2020 Outlook (Apr 14) - Darkness

Isolation

- Immigration

- Propaganda

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Stimulation

- New deal Plan

- Money printing

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Retaliation

- Indemnity

- Outframing

Comments

Tech view & investment - 5G - ETF

Asset targeting

- Passive fund

- ETF

- 5G theme

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Bet driver

- 5G speed

- Corona

- Digital transformation

Comments

Recovery bet - V / U / W

Forget

- ‘V’ Rebound

- Covid will be back

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Defence > Resilience

- Cash

- Massive lay-off

- Replancement

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Unemployment rate

Comments

Unemployment rate - getting worse?

26.5M for 5 Weeks

Lack of Social Welfare

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Moral Hazard

- Liquidity first

- Management first

- Poorest pays high price

Comments

Data

Korea - FX Rate War

Past

- Binding to RMB

- Current surplus +

- Foreign exchange reserves +

- Foreign investment +

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Current

- Instable (Exodus or not)

- Shield power (China)

- FX Swap line (US)

Comments

China - Too hard to ignore

Chinese dream

- Financial market open

- Domestic demand

- Skilled Labor

Who knows?

- Number

- Reliability

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Comments

Gold?

Last Resort

- Pessimist’s bet

- Gap btw real & paper

Timing

- Too risky to hop in

- Momentum based

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Shy Gold

- Risk Appetite

Comments

Wrap-up

where are we?

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Appendix.

Preparing for the expected loss ?

한국 : 삼성증권 0416 리포트 : Sector Update : Bank

Expected Loss

- EL = PD * LGD * EAD

- 2008 Base adjusted testing

Credit risk coming

- Default of companies

- Debt driven

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Mitigation

- Support by federal gov.

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Comments

Cycle positioning

Before Corona

- Fourth dimension

After Corona

- Second dimension

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Worst

- First dimension

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Best

- Third dimension

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Comments