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LA K16 Community of Practice

August 7, 2025

SYNTHESIS OF EVIDENCE

College Promise

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What are College Promise Programs?
What are the positive outcomes?
What are the limitations & mixed results?
What are the design features that matter?
What do we not yet know about the program’s effectiveness?
What are the implications for practice?

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What are College Promise programs?

Programs meeting three criteria:

(1) central goal of increasing higher education attainment,

(2) financial award beyond existing federal/state aid,

(3) "place-based" student eligibility requirement such as living in designated city or attending specific school (Perna & Leigh, 2018; Perna & Smith, 2020)

Also known as "free tuition" programs emerging across the U.S. as mechanisms for improving college access and affordability (Dowd et al., 2020; Perna & Leigh, 2018)

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216

College

Promise

Programs

nationwide

(121 are in

California alone!)

Source: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 2025; Rauner & Smith, 2020

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Key Program Variations

Sponsorship

Award Structure

Institutional Coverage

Eligibility Criteria

Sponsorship: State governments, municipalities, colleges, foundations, nonprofits, corporations (Miller-Adams, 2015)

Award Structure: "First-dollar" (like original Kalamazoo) vs. "last-dollar" (most common since Tennessee Promise) (Miller-Adams, 2015; Monaghan, 2023)

Institutional Coverage: Community college only vs. broader postsecondary options (Perna & Leigh, 2018)

Eligibility: Universal vs. need-based vs. merit-based requirements (Perna & Leigh, 2018)

key differentiators: state vs. non-state sponsorship, financial award structure (first/last dollar), institutional coverage, eligibility criteria (universal vs. merit/need-based) (Perna & Leigh, 2018)

In the research, programs are categorized by sponsorship, financial reward structure, institutional requirements, and eligibility criteria

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What are

the positive outcomes?

College Enrollment & Completion

Place-based scholarship programs increase college enrollment and completion (Bartik et al., 2017; Swanson et al., 2020)
Programs providing financial awards for community college attendance increase enrollment (Li & Gándara, 2020)
Net benefits found for Promise students, with higher benefit-cost ratios for non-Whites (Bartik et al., 2016)
For another major US city, it is estimated that future benefits to individuals and taxpayers would exceed $25 million spent on financial awards (Page, Iriti, et al., 2019)

Supporting Interventions

Need-based grant aid positively affects college enrollment, persistence, and completion (Castleman & Long, 2013; Goldrick-Rab et al., 2015)
Generous grant aid with clear, targeted messaging improves outcomes (Dynarski et al., 2018)
Comprehensive student supports show positive effects (Iriti et al., 2018; Page, Kehoe, et al., 2019)

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What are the

community- level

impacts?

Able to achieve broader community goals: reversing outmigration, stabilizing populations and housing values, thus driving new economic development (Miller-Adams, 2015)

Serve as catalysts bringing local actors into alignment around shared educational goals (Miller-Adams, cited in Upjohn Institute, 2021)

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What are the limitations & mixed results?

Program Design Matters

The amount of funding for students doesn’t not appear to college enrollment due to academic eligibility requirements that were too high and absence of mechanisms to help students learn about/meet requirements (Harris et al., 2020)
Some studies show community college promise programs are unrelated to educational attainment of a county (Ruiz et al., 2020)

Equity Concerns with "Last Dollar" Approach

Students with lowest family incomes receive no new funding from last-dollar programs when Pell + state grants exceed tuition
Low-income students receive no help with non-tuition costs (books, food) that limit engagement and success (Goldrick-Rab, 2010; Peters et al., 2018)

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Weighing out

programs features

that matter

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Full time enrollment requirements may improve competition but…

reduce equity for low-income students who need to work

Weighing

program design decisions

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Academic requirements may increase reported success rates but…

resources and support are not available to many advantaged students to increase access

Weighing

program design decisions

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Weighing

program design decisions

Place-based requirements and application processes help programs choose students but…

can create barriers for those who could benefit or unable to produce the right evidence

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Requirements for enrollment directly after high school graduation could improve outcomes for all students, particularly low-socioeconomic students

and yet that scale is difficult to build and maintain

Weighing

program design decisions

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Needed resource beyond financial aid

Personnel investments in oversight, data collection, student support, and recruitment affect outcomes
Facilities and materials for communication/ marketing influence program awareness
Programs may shift institutional resources away from other student supports, creating financial and political tension

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Questions not (yet) addressed

(where evidence is lacking)

Are there causal relationships
What are the true program costs
How variation in design affect impact
What are the long-term outcomes?
What the the student outcome relative to need?

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Study Limitations	Research Needs
Most benefit-cost estimates not transferable across programs due to design differences	More randomized controlled trials like Harris et al. (2020)
Selection effects not always adequately controlled for in eligibility requirement studies	Systematic tracking of all program costs using "ingredients approach" (Levin et al., 2018)
Limited longitudinal data on program evolution and adaptation	Studies examining programs' effects on institutional culture and resource allocation

Evidence Considerations

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academic preparation and support

access to college planning information and navigational strategies

development of self-efficacy

strategies of socialization and acculturation

financial aid and financial planning skills

(Tierney et al., 2005 in Millett et al., 2018)

Evidence-based competencies for college success

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Practice Implications

Recognize programs may have different outcomes for different student groups
Consider equity implications of last-dollar financial awards
Acknowledge that eligibility requirements affect both efficiency and equity
Invest in comprehensive supports beyond financial aid (personnel, facilities, data systems)
Others?

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Work Cited

Castleman, B. L., & Long, B. T. (2013). Looking beyond enrollment: The causal effect of need-based grants on college access, persistence, and graduation (NBER Working Paper No. 19306). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w19306

College Promise. (2021). MyPromise database. https://www.mypromisetool.org/?source=college-promise-web

Dowd, A. C., Rosinger, K. O., & Castro, M. F. (2020). Trends and perspectives on finance equity and the promise of community colleges. In L. Perna (Ed.), Higher education: Handbook of theory and research (Vol. 35, pp. 517–588). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-31365-4_7

Dynarski, S., Libassi, C. J., Michemore, K., & Owen, S. (2018). Closing the gap: The effect of a targeted, tuition-free promise on college choices of high-achieving, low-income students (NBER Working Paper No. 25349). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w25349

Goldrick-Rab, S. (2010). Challenges and opportunities for improving community college student success. Review of Educational Research, 80(3), 437–469. https://doi.org/10.3102/0034654310370163

Goldrick-Rab, S., Kelchen, R., Harris, D. N., & Benson, J. (2015). Reducing income inequality in educational attainment: Experimental evidence on the impact of financial aid on college completion (IRP Discussion Paper No. 1393-12rev). Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.

Bartik, T. J., Hershbein, B., & Lachowska, M. (2016). The merits of universal scholarships: Benefit-cost evidence from the Kalamazoo Promise. Journal of Benefit Cost Analysis, 7(3), 400–433. https://doi.org/10.1017/bca.2016.22

Bartik, T. J., Hershbein, B., & Lachowska, M. (2017). The effects of the Kalamazoo Promise Scholarship on college enrollment, persistence, and completion (Working Paper No. 15-229). W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. https://doi.org/10.17848/wp15-229

Bell, E., & Gándara, D. (2021). Can free community college close racial disparities in postsecondary attainment? How Tulsa Achieves affects racially minoritized student outcomes. Community College Review, 49(3), 279–306. https://doi.org/10.1177/00915521211000038

Callahan, K., Hagood, S., Meehan, K., & Kent, D. (2019). The case of Tennessee Promise: A uniquely comprehensive program. Research for Action.

Carruthers, C. K., & Fox, W. F. (2016). Aid for all: College coaching, financial aid, and post-secondary persistence in Tennessee. Economics of Education Review, 51, 97–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2015.06.001

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Work Cited, Cont.

Li, A. Y., & Gándara, D. (2020). Program design matters: A difference-in-differences analysis of "promise" impacts on first-time college enrollment. American Educational Research Association. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvxw3phv.13

Miller-Adams, M. (2009). The power of a promise: Education and economic renewal in Kalamazoo. W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.

Miller-Adams, M. (2015). Promise nation: Transforming communities through place-based scholarships. W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. https://doi.org/10.17848/9780880995061

Miller-Adams, M. (2021). The path to free college: In pursuit of access, equity, and prosperity. Harvard Education Press.

Millett, C., Saunders, S. R., & Fishtein, D. (2018). Examining how college promise programs promote student academic and financial readiness. ETS Research Report Series, 2018(1), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1002/ets2.12229

Monaghan, D. B. (2023). How well do students understand "free community college"? Promise programs as informational interventions. AERA Open, 9, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1177/23328584231166948

Page, L. C., Iriti, J. E., Lowry, D. J., & Anthony, A. M. (2019). Postsecondary access and success: Investigating the impact of the Pittsburgh Promise. Education Finance and Policy, 14(4), 572–600. https://doi.org/10.1162/edfp_a_00257

Harris, D., Farmer-Hinton, R., Kim, D. H., Diamond, J. B., Reavis, T. B., Rifelj, K. K., Lustick, H. A., & Carl, B. (2020). The promise of free college and its potential pitfalls: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial of a performance-based aid program. American Educational Research Association. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvxw3phv.9

Hartig, H. (2020, February 21). Democrats overwhelmingly favor free college tuition, while Republicans are divided by age, education. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/02/21/democrats-overwhelmingly-favor-free-college-tuition-while-republicans-are-divided-by-age-education/

Iriti, J., Page, L. C., & Bickel, W. E. (2018). Place-based scholarships: Catalysts for systems reform to improve postsecondary attainment. International Journal of Educational Development, 58, 137–148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijedudev.2017.02.002

Jones, T., Miller-Adams, M., & Barker, K. (2020). Promise programs in practice: A national scan of 2019 program operations. W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.

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Work Cited, Cont.

Peters, E. E., Roberson, A. J., & Voight, M. (2018). The burden of non-tuition costs. Institute for Higher Education

Poutré, A., & Voight, M. (2018). The state of free college: Tennessee Promise and New York's Excelsior Scholarship. Institute for Higher Education Policy.

Rauner, M., & Smith, A. (2020, February). College promise programs: A description of the California landscape. WestEd. https://californiacollegepromise.wested.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/CCPP-Research-Brief-2-022720-final.pdf

Ruiz, R., Leigh, E. W., Napier, A., & González Canché, M. S. (2020). Community college promise programs and local impact: Aggregate effects of college attainment in three promise communities. American Educational Research Association. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvxw3phv.14

Swanson, E., Watson, A., & Ritter, G. W. (2020). Promises fulfilled? A systematic review of the impacts of college promise programs. American Educational Research Association. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvxw3phv.6

Tierney, W. G., Corwin, Z. B., & Colyar, J. E. (2005). Preparing for college: Nine elements of effective outreach. SUNY Press.

Page, L. C., Kehoe, S. S., Castleman, B. L., & Sahadewo, G. A. (2019). More than dollars for scholars: The impact of the Dell Scholars Program on college access, persistence, and degree attainment. Journal of Human Resources, 54(3), 683–725. https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.54.3.0516.7935R1

Perna, L. W., & Leigh, E. W. (2018). Understanding the promise: A typology of state and local college promise programs. Educational Researcher, 47(3), 155–180. https://doi.org/10.3102/0013189X17742653

Perna, L. W., & Leigh, E. W. (n.d.). Penn AHEAD College Promise database. Alliance for Higher Education and Democracy, University of Pennsylvania. https://www.ahead-penn.org/creating-knowledge/college-promise

Perna, L. W., & Smith, E. J. (Eds.). (2020). Improving research-based knowledge of college promise programs. American Educational Research Association. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvxw3phv

Perna, L. W., Wright-Kim, J., & Leigh, E. W. (2020). Is a college promise program an effective use of resources? Understanding the implications of program design and resource investments for equity and efficiency. AERA Open, 6(4), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1177/2332858420967633

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