Winning the Midterms
OCTOBER 17, 2022
The sky is falling!
Is the sky is falling?
The New York Times Poll
SEPTEMBER VS OCTOBER
The New York Times Poll
SEPTEMBER VS OCTOBER
SEPT VS OCT (SEPT TURNOUT)
Midterm Results – Republican Turnout
Midterm Results – Turnout Parity
Midterm Results – Democratic Surge
June 14, 2022
FiveThirtyEight Revisions
FIRST TERM PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL
PRESIDENTIAL PARTIES IN SPECIAL ELECTIONS
J6 Hearings, Dobbs Changes Everything�President’s Party’s Generic Ballot
J6 Hearings, Dobbs Changes Everything�President’s Party’s Generic Ballot
PRESIDENT’S PARTY’S GENERIC BALLOT
CONGRESSIONAL RACE RATINGS
It’s a good thing we didn’t listen to them!
Dems know the Jan. 6 hearings won't help in November. They're leaning in anyway
(“Democrats will attempt to pierce many voters’ malaise on the subject ... many [Democrats] privately say they don’t see the hearings dramatically reversing the headwinds against them”)
ade-for-TV Jan. 6 hearings won’t rescue Democrats (“Democrats think voters will be so gob-smacked by the revelations of the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack that they will forget about soaring gasoline and food prices, rising crime, a 15,000-person caravan of people about to cross our southern border, the baby formula shortage and power brownouts, which are likely to hit our country this summer.”)
The January 6 committee’s biggest task is getting people to care
(“Sadly, we have every reason to expect the committee to fail at these tasks. In the nearly year and a half since the Capitol riot, it has only grown dimmer in the public imagination. “I’m quite skeptical [that hearings will] lead to a concrete shift in public opinion on the attack,” says Brendan Nyhan, a Dartmouth political scientist.”)
The Democrats Need to Move on From Donald Trump and January 6th
(“The myopic focus seems pathological. It’s politically misguided. And it’s very, very played out.”)
Democrats Need More Than January 6 Hearings to Save Them (“... there’s more to politics than spectacle”)
Democrats Risk Getting 'Destroyed' in Midterms Without Economic Message: Strategists
(“The party's focus on Donald Trump's role in the Capitol siege has overshadowed their economic gains (Democratic strategists.))
J6 Hearings, Dobbs Changes Everything�President’s Party’s Generic Ballot
JUNE 2022
OCTOBER 2022
Winning the Midterms
OCTOBER 17, 2022
Winning the Midterms
OCTOBER 3, 2022
Cook Midterm House Ratings Changes – �June to September
Change in President’s First Term Approval – �June to September
Presidential Parties in Special Elections
US Senate Reversal
FiveThirtyEight Revisions
MAJOR PARTY CANDIDATES TO REJECT THE LEGITIMACY OF THE PREVIOUS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Post-Election Preview
OCTOBER 3, 2022
Republicans were nearly as ready Democrats to trust the 2020 vote count until the vote was counted
Asymmetric Confidence in the 2020 election
Same as it ever was
Remember Blue Shift
Percent Reported – First 48 Hours
Winning the Midterms
SEPTEMBER 19, 2022
Overview
What’s at Stake
Understanding Midterms
How We Win
What’s at Stake
House of Representatives
Senate
Governors – Secretaries of State – Attorneys General
State Legislatures
Ballot Initiatives
Voted against Electoral College, J6 etc
Parents Bill of Rights
Illegal Immigration
Prosecute Members of J6 Committee
Impeachment
Debt Ceiling
Hunter Biden
Afghanistan
Speaker McCarthy
58 Key Races:�- CA (8)�- NY (6)�- IL, MI, NV, OH, OR, PA, TX (3)�- AZ, NC, NH, VA, WA (2)�- AK, CO, CT, IA, IN, KS, ME, MN, NE, NJ, NM, RI, WI (1)
Majority Leader Mitch
No!
10 Key Races�(45-45)�- Likely ahead: AZ, CO, NH, PA�- Toss-up: GA, NV, WI�- Stretch: FL, NC, OH
Electoral College 2024��
Electoral College 2024��
Electoral College 2024��
16 Key Races�- Lean Democratic: CO, CT ME, MI, MN, NM, PA�- Toss-up: AZ, GA, KS, NV, OR, WI�- Stretch: AK, FL, TX
Understanding Midterms
What’s at Stake
Understanding Midterms
How We Win
PRESIDENTS LOSE 90 PERCENT OF MIDTERMS
PRESIDENTS’ VOTERS STAY HOME
AMERICANS DON’T LIKE THEIR PRESIDENTS
How We Win
What’s at Stake
Understanding Midterms
How We Win
THE LARGEST TURNOUT SURGE - EVER
NEW MIDTERM VOTERS
WE TOOK THE HIGH GROUND
GENERIC BALLOT TURN-AROUND
PRESIDENTIAL PARTIES IN SPECIAL ELECTIONS
MAJOR PARTY CANDIDATES TO REJECT THE LEGITIMACY OF THE PREVIOUS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
TRUMP IN COURT
Forecasting
The Urgency of Now
This week: NC, PA, WI, MN, MI
In 2 Weeks: FL
In 3 Weeks: GA, OH, AZ
We Decide