Hypothesis Tree -�Guidance and Template

Capability Building

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 Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License - �you may use and share this file, but please attribute it to thepsc.co.uk

 Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License - �you may use and share this file, but please attribute it to thepsc.co.uk

Hypothesis Tree

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Template

 Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License - �you may use and share this file, but please attribute it to thepsc.co.uk

How to use a Hypothesis Tree (from our FEP & PSAT programmes)

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What is this tool?

A hypothesis tree helps to organise thoughts on ‘the answer’ and show the gaps in your logic. �It radically reduces the overall work required to develop insight into recommendations or options, as you focus resources on filling the gaps to support or disprove your working hypothesis.

Tips for developing insight with hypothesis trees

• Start by stating what you believe (based on the available evidence) to be the best answer(s) or options(s) for the basic question or problem. Then add the supporting evidence below. Keep asking “Why?” and “How?” until the logic and evidence are rock-solid
• Ensure the ANSWERS at each level (a horizontal cut) are independent (Mutually Exclusive) – but unlike issue trees, they do NOT need to be complete (Collectively Exhaustive). Only the evidence sufficient to disprove or prove the point is necessary
• Use existing frameworks where possible – if one doesn’t exist, invest the time in developing your own and testing it with others
• Aim to capture existing preconceptions/myths so they can be discussed. And give stakeholders plenty of time to react to your emerging hypotheses of options and recommendations.

When to use this tool?�The biggest trap you can fall into is leaving the development of insights and hypotheses until the end of the project. Keep iterating the tree throughout the project – the answers to your first issue tree will drive a first set of hypotheses, which will allow you to refine the issue tree, break the problem down more meaningfully, and build an improved set of hypotheses based on the evidence.

Find more tools, templates and videos at:

thepsc.co.uk/capability-building/

 Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License - �you may use and share this file, but please attribute it to thepsc.co.uk