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Climate Proxies

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Proxy Mathematical Models

  • How many years, after this tree started growing, did it first experience a drought?

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Proxy Data

(Proxy Mathematical Models)

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Proxy Mathematical Models

How tall was Robin Hood?

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Proxy Data

(Proxy Mathematical Models)

Small Shoes

Big Shoes

Height

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Average Shoe Length

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Page #

Developing Mathematical Proxies. Bill G. 6/29

Tree Ring = (0.33 SGI * Precipitation) + 0.99 SGI

Growth rainfall deviation

Index

Precipitation = Tree Ring Index - 0.99 SGI rainfall

0.33 sgi/rainfall deviation

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Proxy Mathematical Models to Reveal Ancient Climates

The goal of this analysis was to develop a proxy mathematical model to estimate the temperature in Northwestern Canada back to the year 1780. Temperatures would be estimated based on the relationship between direct measurements of Oxygen-18 in tree ring cellulose and temperatures taken between 1927 and 2003.

O-18 Deviation

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There is a strong correlation between the temperature during a snowstorm, and the ratio of water molecules containing the heavier oxygen-18 isotope.

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Average Isotopic Mass of Oxygen from Water Molecules

Ice Core #3

Age of Ice

20,000 years BP

Ocean

Standard

Core

#

Age of Ice

Avg. oxygen

isotopicmass (g)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

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Average Isotopic Mass of Oxygen from Water Molecules

Ice Core #3

Age of Ice

20,000 years BP

Ocean

Standard

Ocean

Standard

Core

#

Age of Ice

Avg. oxygen

isotopicmass (g)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Delta O Deviation

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Ocean

Standard

Ocean

Standard

Core

#

Age of Ice

Avg. oxygen

isotopicmass (g)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Delta O Deviation

Mass Deviation = Avg. Mass Water - Avg. Mass Ocean Standard

Ice Core Oxygen isotopes Oxygen Isotopes

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Average Isotopic m Mass of Oxygen Isotopes

Warm

Cold

Average Isotopic Mass of Oxygen in the Ocean Standard

Delta-Ocean Standard

Delta O Deviation (g)

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Climate Proxies