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Support for Biden’s Tax Plans�in Arizona

Findings from a Poll of Arizona Registered Voters

July 2021

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Survey Methodology

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ALG Research and Hart Research conducted an online survey of Arizona registered voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish.

The survey consisted of N=500 voters.

Interviews were conducted July 13-19, 2021.

The 95% confidence interval is ± 4.4 percentage points. The 95% confidence interval for subgroups varies and is higher.

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Key Findings

“Ensuring that the wealthy and corporations pay their fair share in taxes” is a top priority for Arizona voters today, even ahead of important goals like “creating jobs” and “rebuilding America’s infrastructure,” and ahead of “reducing the national debt.”
Two-thirds (65%) of Arizona voters support President Biden’s American Families Plan, and 68% see his proposals to raise taxes on the wealthy and corporations as a strong reason to support it.
Biden’s proposal to raise taxes on those making over $400,000 meets with wide approval (71% support) in Arizona, including his proposal to tax capital gains at the same rate as income from wages (61% support). Arizona voters believe that raising taxes on those earning $400,000 or more will help the economy by a 35-point margin.
Increasing the corporate tax rate to 28% is embraced by 62% of Arizona voters, who also favor taxing foreign profits at 28% (66% support), setting a minimum corporate tax rate of 15%, and taxing stock buybacks.
The voters of Arizona would go even further than President Biden in raising taxes on the wealthy, embracing proposals to establish a wealth tax (72% support), expand the estate tax (62% support), and eliminate “dynasty trusts.”
Swing voters in next year’s congressional election are particularly motivated by tax fairness concerns and consistently support progressive tax policies at a higher level than the electorate overall.

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TAX FAIRNESS

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“Ensuring the wealthy and corporations pay their fair share in taxes” is a top-tier priority for Arizonan voters, ahead of “creating jobs,” “reducing the national debt,” and “rebuilding America’s infrastructure.”

It ranks well-ahead of public education, clean energy, and making housing more affordable.

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SWING VOTERS*
40
31
33
36
30
28
28
33

Issue Priorities for the President and Congress: Top Tier

*Voters who are undecided on a generic congressional ballot

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A majority of Arizona voters believe that raising taxes on those earning $400,000 or more will help the economy.

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HELP – HURT

+35	+42

Do you think raising taxes on those earning over $400,000 a year right now would:

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THE AMERICAN FAMILIES PLAN

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Two-thirds of voters in Arizona support President Biden’s American Families Plan.

Majorities of Democrats and Independents support the plan, as do nearly four in ten Republicans.

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The American Families Plan will make health insurance, childcare, housing, and college more affordable; make community college debt-free for those who qualify; and ensure that all workers have paid family and medical leave. It would also expand access to affordable home- or community-based care for seniors; make the expanded child tax credit for low- and middle-income families permanent; make pre-school available to all 3- and 4-year-olds; and expand the use of clean energy. The cost of this plan would be roughly $4 trillion. It would be paid for by raising taxes on corporations and those earning over $400,000 a year. It would not raise taxes on anyone making less than $400,000 a year.

+37	+88	+40	-15

NET SUPPORT

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Support for the plan exceeds Senator Sinema’s positive job rating by 21 points.

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Support for AFP	SUPP.	OPP.	NET SUPP.	AFP SUPP. – SINEMA POS. JR
Overall	65	28	+37	+21
Democrats	93	5	+88	+35
Independents	64	24	+40	+26
Republicans	39	54	-15	0
White	62	31	+31	+14
Latino	77	14	+63	+44
Women	66	26	+40	+33
Men	63	31	+32	+6
18-39	80	11	+69	+33
40-59	67	28	+39	+24
60+	48	46	+2	+6
White Non-college	61	33	+28	+20
White College	65	29	+36	+4
HH Income <$75k	61	31	+30	+25
HH Income $75k+	72	24	+48	+15

This gulf is most prominent among Latinos, women, voters under 60, and those making less than $75k.

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That the Families Plan would raise nearly $4 trillion from corporations and the wealthy and would NOT raise taxes on anyone making less than $400k makes two-thirds of voters feel more favorable about the plan.

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MUCH MORE / MUCH + SMWHT MORE
SWING VOTERS
27 / 61
30 / 63

Please indicate whether this [element of President Biden’s American Families Plan] makes you feel much more favorable, somewhat more favorable, somewhat less favorable, or much less favorable about the plan.

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By a 15 to 1 ratio, Arizona voters would rather the plan be paid for by raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy than borrowing and increasing the debt.

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RAISE TAXES ON WEALTHY– INCREASE DEBT

+56	+53

Which of these do you think is the better way to pay for President Biden's American Families Plan?

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TAX PROPOSALS

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President Biden’s proposals to raise taxes on the wealthy and corporations generate strong support across the board with Arizona voters.

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NET SUPPORT
OVERALL	SWINGS
+52	+56
+47	+46
+43	+36
+37	+29
+36	+38

Biden’s Tax Proposals

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In a back-and-forth on the corporate tax rate, Arizona voters side with raising it by a 33-point margin.

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Supporters say it’s time corporations paid their fair share - last year 55 big corporations paid no federal income taxes. Increasing the corporate tax rate will raise $900 billion, which could be used to create jobs and make healthcare, eldercare, childcare, college and housing more affordable.

+33	+31

NET

SUPPORTERS

Debate Over Raising Corporate Tax Rate

Opponents say that increasing the corporate tax rate will make American companies uncompetitive with Chinese and other foreign businesses, increase prices for consumers, and cause businesses to slash jobs, cut wages, and move jobs overseas, costing millions of American jobs.

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We win a debate over raising the top tax rate on investment income by 23 points overall and by 22 points among swing voters.

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Supporters say that many teachers, factory workers, and other average Americans pay a higher tax rate on their wages than millionaires pay on their investment income. It’s time to close this loophole and end this rigged arrangement.

+23	+22

NET

SUPPORTERS

Debate Over Raising Tax on Investment Income for Millionaires

Opponents say this proposal will nearly double the tax rate on investment income, which will mean fewer new businesses being created, less investment in existing businesses, and a lot fewer jobs being created.

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At least three in five Arizona voters support raising the corporate tax rate on foreign profits, implementing a minimum tax on corporations, and taxing stock buybacks.

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Proposals to Raise Taxes on Corporations

*Included the following intro language: “Increasingly corporations are distributing their profits to shareholders through stock buybacks instead of reinvesting those profits in their business.”

NET SUPPORT
OVERALL	SWINGS
+48	+57
+46	+41
+41	+34

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Other proposals to raise taxes on the wealthy receive strong support from Arizona voters.

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NET SUPPORT
OVERALL	SWINGS
+52	+51
+44	+39
+39	+26
+36	+27
+35	+23

Proposals to Raise Taxes on Wealthy

*Included the following intro language: “Currently, some very wealthy people put assets into so-called ‘dynasty trusts,’ which allow their wealth to be passed down to heirs over multiple generations without paying any estate taxes.”

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Voters in Arizona think creating a fairer system is a better reason to raise taxes on the wealthy and corporations than funding investments in other priorities.

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Which of the following do you think is a better reason to raise taxes on the wealthy and corporations?

FAIR SHARE – INVEST

+16	+18	+30