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�Coping with Complexity: �An adaptive peace approach

Cedric de Coning

Research Professor, NUPI

cdc@nupi.no

https://cedricdeconing.net

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Everyday and Scientific Complexity

Complex Emergencies

Multiple actors
Multi-dimensional
Simultaneity

Science of Complexity

Highly dynamic
Non-linear
Emergent
Self-organising

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	Determined-design Peacebuilding	Adaptive Peacebuilding
Results framework	Pre-determined outcomes	Outcomes emerge out of participatory and adaptive approach and is context specific
Theory of change	Pre-determined linear causal theory of change	Inductive process of learning from experience and adapting to feedback
Localisation	Affected society consulted about how to implement pre-designed programme	Affected society determines objectives, co-design programme, steers implementation, participate in monitoring and evaluation
Relationship between peacebuilders and community	Process is driven by peacebuilders, community is consulted	Process is driven by community, peacebuilders provide support
Role of Monitoring and Evaluation	Monitoring and evaluation to identify results for purposes of accountability to funders	Monitoring and evaluation to generate learning that informs adaptation and makes peacebuilding more flexible and nimble
Project cycle	Project start with assessment and end with evaluation.	Process is iterative, with assessments and evaluation part of the ongoing cycle of learning

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Implications for:

How we understand or make sense of conflict systems

How we can try to influence complex social and ecological systems

How we cope with the complexity of undertaking peacemaking, peacekeeping and peacebuilding interventions

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�Adaptive Peacebuilding approach to understanding or sense-making

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Adaptive Peacebuilding approach to influencing social-ecological systems

Clarify what you need to achieve (intent)

Assess ‘problem’ and design multiple interventions (variation)

Implement several interventions simultaneously and monitor effects (feedback)

Adapt: stop those that don’t work, adjust those that show promise, scale-up those that work, introduce new variations of those that show promise (selection)

Repeat the cycle regularly (iterative)

Doing-whilst-learning & learning-whilst-doing�

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Adaptive Peacebuilding approach to undertaking peacebuilding

Process (planning & management)

Purposeful self-organization
Not control

For: Stimulate resilience

Connect information circuits
Create hubs/networks to link dimensions and scale

Against: Disrupt resilience

Disrupt flow of information, networks, resources

Shared vision

Shared understanding
Strategic framework (distributed & connected plans)
Regularly come together to take stock & adapt

Enable

Information & Analysis

MEL (stimulate learning & track progress)
Knowledge (Technical expertise & research)

Resources