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Lunar Orbital Congestion�Coming sooner than you may think

Greg Autry, PhD

May 28, 2023

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Drivers for Lunar Development

  • US space policy direction
  • Technological developments
  • Economic motives
  • Competition w. China

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4 January 2017- My Notes

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11 December 2017 – Space Policy Directive 1

The United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization

By 2025, begin crewed missions beyond the moon, including sending humans to an asteroid. 

By 2025, begin crewed missions beyond the moon, including sending humans to an asteroid. 

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Americans should have the right to engage in commercial exploration, recovery, and use of resources in outer space, consistent with applicable law. Outer space is a legally and physically unique domain of human activity, and the United States does not view it as a global commons. Accordingly, it shall be the policy of the United States to encourage international support for the public and private recovery and use of resources in outer space, consistent with applicable law.

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2015 U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act

The President, acting through appropriate Federal agencies, shall:

  • facilitate commercial exploration for and commercial recovery of space resources by United States citizens;
  • discourage government barriers to the development in the United States of economically viable, safe, and stable industries for commercial exploration for and commercial recovery of space resources in manners consistent with the international obligations of the United States; and
  • promote the right of United States citizens to engage in commercial exploration for and commercial recovery of space resources free from harmful interference…

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2015 U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act

  • House  May 21, 2015 (284–133)
  • Senate  November 11, 2015 (unanimous consent)

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Competition is good, cooperation is dull, dull, dull

13 Years

25 Years

22 Years

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LEO and GEO are Messy … we know that

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LLO Orbits Will be Lower

  • No atmosphere
  • 20-30km theoretically possible
  • Less altitude required to cover a similar percentage of surface are

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LLO is much smaller than LEO

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Most LLO Orbits are Unstable!

PFS 1

Apollo 15

Aug 4 1971-Jan 1973

PFS 2

Apollo 16

Apr 24 1972 – May 29 1972

Only stable at: 27º, 50º, 76º, and 86º

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The Suez and Gibraltar of Cis-Lunar Space

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Why there will be 1,000 Lunar Sats by 2030

  • Limited Orbital Space
    • Smaller volume
    • Restricted inclinations
  • Rapidly reduced launch and delivery to lunar orbits
    • Starship, New Glenn, Vulcan Centaur, Neutron, Terran….
  • First mover advantage
    • Geopolitical force
    • Commercial forces

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A first-mover advantage = firm’s ability to be better off than its competitors as a result of being first to market. –Harvard Business Review

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@GregWAutry

@GregWAutry

@GregWAutry