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Brief Summary of S1 Cluster Activities

Moderator: Alexei Pevtsov (National Solar Observatory, USA)

Co-Moderators: Dibyendu Nandi (CESSI/IISER Kolkata, India)

Ilya Usoskin (University of Oulu, Finland)

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Moderator: Alexei Pevtsov (National Solar Observatory, USA)

Co-Moderators: Dibyendu Nandi (CESSI/IISER Kolkata, India)

Ilya Usoskin (University of Oulu, Finland)

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Objectives:

The goals of this cluster are to reconstruct and constrain past solar activity, extreme space weather episodes (if possible, their impacts), help assess predictive models of solar activity ranging from solar dynamo models, solar surface flux transport models to coronal and heliospheric field evolution models and transition validated data driven computational models to operational space weather (and climate) forecasting tools.

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Action Teams:

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  • S1-01: Long-term solar variability (Lead: Ilya Usoskin)
  • S1-02: Worst-case scenario for extreme solar events (Lead: Ilya Usoskin)
  • S1-03: Data sets of historical observations of solar and geomagnetic activity (Lead: Alexander Pevtsov)

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Overarching Questions

  • What are the physical drivers of solar cycle fluctuations over decadal, centennial and longer timescales relevant for space weather and space climate?
  • Do we understand the causes of extreme solar cycle variability such as grand minima and maxima phases? Can we predict such extreme episodes?
  • What is our current understanding of solar cycle predictability and how close are we to generating, accurate, physics-based forecasts for the solar cycle?
  • What are the manifestations of long-term solar dynamo fluctuations in the Sun’s outer atmosphere – the corona, the heliosphere and in the near-Earth space environment?

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