Daily Market Journal

Date:

15.05.2024 Wednesday

Yesterdays paths, projections

• Lot of yesterdays ideas played out to a T today

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• I had a key scenario with CPI data coming in sideways, or at least different than people expect; leading to quick re-pricing, and an intra-range rally

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• “CPI not rising, shorts forced to close: Blue path: CPI data turns out to not follow PPI, so the market will reprice itself quick. If there are a lot of shorts, we might get a volatile push above 63K taking a lot of people out. “

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• “Based solely off the liquidation heatmap the market is quite shorted here imo. “

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• We got a nice big green day in BTC D too, as I was talking about this yesterday. BTC will outperform alts most likely at such events greatly.

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• I mentioned also the Dollar downtrend, the highest probability was to expect more downside which we got.

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• Yesterdays coin I talked about was NVDA, which is now breaking out from its tight compression. From the facts mentioned yesterday I think there is more upside to come, and this could lead to a new push beyond ATH maybe.

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BTC

• What did Price do today?
• After CPI data came in flat, basically we have just seen green only
• Shows that the market was expecting else, and this news wasn’t priced in
• We broke multiple key levels today;
• the key 64K Volume Profile POC level
• the 2021 April Highs Pivot level
• took liquidity from 6th May Monday highs (65540.0)
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• There will be a dip at one point, the only thing we have to look at where it goes. If it holds the above mentioned key levels = really bullish. If it loses them = will probably bleed and chop.
• We also can see that on todays move the Volume Profile Distribution is quite even all the way, showing that there is demand pushing us up at all levels.
• As we can see on the second chart (daily), we just hit into a Daily Bearish OB (65750.0 - 67158.9) with a POC at 66721.2.
• This general area could be resistance for now. Holding above the 2021 April Pivot is also key, so will be interesting to see what price does.

Key Levels (Current BTC Price =65839.7)

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• Liquidity levels (stops resting):
• UP:
• [63447.8 (fridays highs, hit today) 65540.0 (6th May mondays highs, hit today)]
• 67198.9 (22th April highs)
• DOWN:
• 60111.0 (fridays lows, 56505.0 (local bottom)

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• HTF Opens
• 60651.2 (Monthly Open)

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• OB levels
• 56958.0 - 59637.3 (Bullish OB) Daily
• 65750.0 - 67158.9 (Bearish OB) Daily
• 62773.0 - 63086.8 (Bearish OB) 1H

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• Key POC levels
• 59022.2 (POC of Bullish OB Daily)
• 66721.2 (POC of Bearish OB Daily)
• 62922.7 (POC of Bearish OB H1)

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• Pivots
• 64986.1 (2021 Aprils High Pivot)
• 58472.1 (2021 Febs High Pivot)

Different exchange prices may differ . The below shown prices are form the Binance and Bybit Perps USDT chart

BTC DATA

• OI, Funding, Spot premium:
• OI is up around 10%, as price is up 7.45% since yesterdays lows. Shows a small divergence, but considering we were basically up only today no longs got taken out on the way. They could get punished
• Smaller short liquidations here at the highs indicating momentum weakness and divergence with price
• Funding turned negative, also signaling that we have a massive short squeeze ongoing
• Spot premium still holding up well, good to see that if it can hold and sustain

• Liquidation heatmap:
• As we can see we broke through a lot of levels today. The next big level is 22nd April Highs, lot of liquidity and stops resting there

BTC possible paths

1. Continue squeeze: Green path: We continue with this momentum, we take out liquidity at 67198.9 and we fall back. That would also align with rejecting off the POC (66721.2) of the Bearish OB we’re inside.

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• Distribution top: Red path: We lose momentum and go into a distribution top, with 3 pushes and taking out the liquidity at the end at 67198.9.

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• No free rides: Orange path: We wick back aggressively taking out a lot of late longs. We might hold the 2021 April Highs pivot at 65K, and that would set us up well for further continuation later.

Alts, BTC D

• Alts relation to BTC:
• As I talked about it yesterday, this was mostly a BTC day, as bigger players reacted to the economic news
• Alts extremely weak pump compared to BTC
• BTC D mooning. Depends on what BTC does and how alts react, but a breakout could come soon on it if BTC stays on the central stage for now

Stocks, Macro

• Gold accumulation pattern. It managed to form a higher high which now officially puts it in an uptrend at least on the 4H. It's coming now into resistance. So no point getting excited, but if it can spend some time here it could set up for a move higher.
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• Dollar selling off and trending down. There is some support at 104 for it but it doesn't have much support below so it could just keep going down. It probably won't, and it probably will have a bounce soon. I think it will get choppy and messy, but the direction is down.
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• S&P and NDQ both big pushes to their ATHs (so far they haven't touched it) but this puts them now into a really bullish state, considering they came back to their ATH consolidation levels. If they can hold here they might have a try to run higher. But also could be a nice double top; depends on the further market sentiment .

Other coins, honorable mentions

• APU nice push further.
• There is some resistance met here so far, the question is how big that is. We could just rip through it as the orange path suggest
• Or it could be bigger resistance, and bigger profit taking starting which could bring us back to previous support levels (red path)

Market conclusion / sentiment / future outlooks

• It's probably not the start of a new bull leg imo.
• It's already too euphoric. We got a bunch of good news (inflation data sideways, trump about crypto, weak job market), together with now price moving up (both in crypto and stocks), can equal very easily euphoria returning.
• Just think about it. What do you feel?
• Its funny, i have called lower high bounce on the S&P and NDQ every day for like a week or so. Now that they are at the highs, I flip bullish and revise my targets up. Of course you have to adapt, but you have to adapt early. I didn't adapt early in their case, and also most people probably didn't.
• Meaning, that a lot of people could just give up on their bearish thoughts and plans and just ape in now because we got a big green candle. Sounds like a top to me.
• Now this doesn't mean we top right here right now, but these are the reasons why I think that there is no new bull leg coming. A couple green days isnt a bull leg.

Further notes about the market - if any

I think key levels will play an important role now.

We broke through multiple key price levels, so falling back below any of them would be a big sign of weakness.

I think these key levels will help a lot in the next days, for those who want to build a position here.