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Interest Rates In The Macro Cycle

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How Do Interest Rates Work?

  • Nominal rates = real rates + inflation expectations

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Inflation expectations:

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Forward curve went to an extreme:

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Growth surprise:

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Inflation Surprise:

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Expectations Offsides:

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Term Premia:

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Term Premia:

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When will recession risk rise?

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Volatility and Cycle Extremes:

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Trade: LEVERAGE LONG BONDS

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Redundancy Planning and Risk Management:

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