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SUSTAINABLE ENTERPRISE ROADMAP FOR PROFITABILITY EMPLOYING NASCENT TOURISM (SERPENT)�����

Robert Antypas

USC/ASTE 527

11 Dec 2018

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OVERVIEW

  • Why the Moon
  • Space is Profitable
  • Space Tourism A Driver for change
  • Sustainable Long duration Space tourism in the near term
  • Sustainable Long duration Space tourism 2022-2024
  • Benefits to NASA
  • Future Work
  • Conclusion

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WHY THE MOON

  • Current space doctrine dictates we SHALL go back to the Moon
  • But there are other reasons
    • Its our heritage and our legacy
      • Dec 1972 we left after 24 people visited
    • Our closest sustainable neighbor
      • Water!!
      • Lower gravity allows for lower launch cost
    • Lowest gravity well in our sphere of influence
      • Least energy to orbit
    • If we do not go others will claim potentially abundant resources
      • Helium 3
      • Platinum and rare “earth” elements
  • Commercialization of the Moon reduces risk and cost on the directed path to Mars, while exponentially increasing the wealth of scientific knowledge we can accumulate

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SPACE IS PROFITABLE!

  • National Benefits
    • The Apollo program created over 375,000 jobs
    • Science laid the foundation
    • R&D benefits all of the world
      • Semiconductor developed for NASA and DOD
      • Power Drill
      • Velcro
  • Potential Corporate Benefits
    • Private investors invested $3.9 billion into commercial space companies in 2017
      • Private funding tripled NASA’s $1.2B average Yearly investment into commercial space
    • Commercial space has a capitalization of $350B in 2018 and is projected to be $1.1-2.4T in 2040
    • Previous space tourism @ $20 Million a seat brought Russia $160 Million
    • BFR customer ~$500M in commitments 1/5 of cost for BFR development

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SPACE TOURISM A DRIVER FOR CHANGE

  • History
    • NASA Investigated a plan to use Shuttle with 72 seats to sustain the program in the 1980’s
    • From 2001 to 2009
      • 7 people/8 Flights to ISS
      • Russian Soyuz/Space Adventures
      • $20M-$40M a flight
      • Halted in 2010 by Russia as ISS crew size increased and US paid more per seat for launches
  • Future
    • Space X Crew Dragon to fly in early 2019
    • Boing and Space X have contracts with NASA that allow them to sell unused seats on contracted missions to the ISS
    • At $20 Million a seat, high net worth individuals
      • Could experience space
      • Expand the envelope of the understanding of human physiology in space
      • Provide additional capital investment in the commercialization of space
    • Bigelow Space/NASA launched the BEAM module in 2016
      • Convert this to tourist quarters
      • Utilize it to expand the knowledge of Space Adaptation Syndrome

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SUSTAINABLE LONG DURATION SPACE TOURISM IN THE NEAR TERM

  • NASA is funding significant advances towards a 2026 landing on the moon
  • How do we expedite this to 2022
  • Private corporations are building the technology
    • Capital needed to accelerate development
  • Space tourism should be used to accelerate NASA Plans
    • Use ISS as a economic driver
    • Use the BEAM module for first trips
    • SPACE X launch Dragon for $25M a seat (6)
      • $89M profit per flight used to fund Expansion of ISS
      • 1 Flight will pay for another BEAM or B-330 ($20M) and launch cost ($60M)

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IMMEDIATE BENEFITS OF SUSTAINABLE LONG DURATION SPACE TOURISM

  • Point to point Transportation
    • Anywhere on Earth in less than 1 hour
    • Current price aboard Falcon 9/Dragon $3.5M to $1.5M per seat
    • Proposed BFR
      • 100 seats
      • $10K a ticket
      • Comparable to Concord

NEW YORK, 7:00 PM

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SUSTAINABLE LONG DURATION SPACE TOURISM 2022-2026

  • Utilize Funding to advance development of:
    • Advanced SEP
      • Planned for 2022-2023
      • Additional 2 trips and $150M to expedite to 2021-2022 delivery
    • Bigelow space station
      • 3-4 Tourist trips to ISS
      • Launch 3 modules and docking ring
      • Dock advanced SEP
      • Utilize as Lunar Cycler
    • Reduce cost per passenger to ISS to $10M
    • Start Lunar cycler Trips
      • $50M-$100M
      • Utilize Bigelow Lunar free return cycler
    • Crew Lander
      • Current goal towards 2026
      • Utilize Bigelow cycler to fund advanced 2024 delivery and testing

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BENEFITS TO NASA

  • Accelerate delivery and testing of the necessary EM-1/2 & gateway components
    • advanced SEP
    • Human factors science
    • Lander
  • Data
    • expand the envelope of the effects of space on the human body
    • Increased pool of data on human factors and space physiology
    • Increased diversity of data
    • Expanded envelope of data from LEO to GEO to Lunar sphere
  • Extended ISS operations and transition opportunities
  • Overall decrease in cost of launch to ISS and beyond
    • More providers, more competition, lower cost
    • Falcon 9 (man rated)
    • Increased testing
  • NASA can focus on new science and planetary exploration

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FUTURE PLANS

L1

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CONCLUSION

  • Questions
  • Further study warented
  • 2022 cycler missions
  • 2024 test landings
  • Requires additional, non government, funding
  • Tourism is the answer
  • The Moon is sustainable and a stepping stone to the cosmos
  • Lunar industry has huge potential

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BACK UP SLIDES

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CITATIONS

  • Olds, John, Jeremy McCormick, David & Charania, Ashraf & R. Marcus, Leland. (2005). Space Tourism: Making it Work for Fun and Profit. Journal of the British Interplanetary Society. 58.

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  • Tkatchova, Stella A., Atanasov, Vladimir. (2010).Measuring the Economic Impact of Space Tourism Activities. Toulouse Space Show’10

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  • Crawford, I. (2016). The long-term scientific benefits of a space economy. Space Policy, 37, 58–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2016.07.003

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  • Frost, Robert. The Pros And Cons Of Privatizing Space Exploration (Apr 4, 2017). Forbs, https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2017/04/04/the-pros-and-cons-of-privatizing-space-exploration/#5d0c28c13319

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ORBIT OPTIONS

  • Cislunar/Circumlunar free return missions/injections have been used
    • Apollo
    • Planned for EM-1
    • Planned for Space-X Lunar trip

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  • In 1963 Schwaniger found a free-return trajectory in the plane of the orbit of the Moon which is periodic.
    • Period of 650 hrs~27days, 1 lunar orbit
    • Would give 1 month on the moon and ½ month 1 way trip time
    • Lowest fuel solution

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LANDER OPTIONS

  • No lander currently available
  • NASA abandoned Lunar Lander
  • NASA will rely on commercial landers for lunar activity
    • NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) effort to award contracts to provide capabilities as soon as 2019
    • Opportunity to expedite development with external funding

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