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Weerbaarheid �in je organisatie-�ontwerp

Thesis �DOI

This

Presentation

Edzo A. Botjes | 2021-04-21

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Defining Antifragility and �the application on Organisation Design

a literature study in the field of antifragility, applied in the context of organisation design

Edzo A. Botjes�2018-2020 MSc thesis

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Edzo Botjes

Two whitepapers, one thesis with 1100+ reads�40+ blogs, which are quoted in books and multiple thesis.�Various presentation, webinars and articles�

Consultancy for 20+ Clients, 30+ Assignments

�MSc @ Antwerp Management School

BSc @ Hanze University

ASc @ University of Groningen

Enterprise Engineer & Antifragility Architect

with more than 25 years’ experience

Homepage https://www.edzob.com

LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/edzob

ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0097-7375

Email ebotjes@xebia.com

1992-2006 your IT guy (incl startups)

2006-2020 Sogeti

2021-now Xebia

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Agenda

My personal journey�
Your take away�
Validity

Antifragile�
Resilience�
EAAL

Your 3 point action list�
Discussion�
DeepDive (bonus)

Why is it relevant?

Shared Lens

Conclusion

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Why is research into antifragility

relevant?

INTRO (100%)

Naar voorgrond

Naar achtergrond

Meer weten?�Ga naar dia ‘Instructie dia: YouTube links’, open deze in de diavoorstelling en klik op de gewenste video link.

AFBEELDING INVOEGEN/VERANDEREN

1

Wanneer nodig, verwijder de bestaande afbeelding d.m.v. de ‘Delete’-knop. Klik op het pictogram om een nieuwe afbeelding in te voegen.�(zie onderstaand voorbeeld).

2

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3

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My personal journey

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TL;DR��The world digital and physical is getting hyperconnected, this leads to unpredictability.

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“The fundamental organisation of a system ��embodied in �its components, �their inter-relationships, �and to the environment, ��and the principles guiding its design and evolution. “

Hyperconnection

creates a challenge in the field of Enterprise Architecture, because

IEEE 1471:2000/ ISO 42010:2011/ �TOGAF 9/ DYA/ IAF/ etc

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You can determine if your organisation must be resilient or antifragile.

Your take away at the end

When applicable, the “resilient ór antifragile model” supports you �in determining what change is needed to achieve a resilient or antifragile organisation.

What is relevant for my context?

Can we implement the choice?

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My story in context in regards to validity

Conclusion

Literature�(Rationalisation)

Experts

(Validation)

Leadership�(Relevance)

one-on-one

groups

EAAL model

Antifragile Literature

Literature

one-on-one

groups

7

18

358

87

9

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Shared Lens

What is fragile and anti-fragile?

�What is resilience?

The EAAL framework.

INTRO (100%)

Naar voorgrond

Naar achtergrond

Meer weten?�Ga naar dia ‘Instructie dia: YouTube links’, open deze in de diavoorstelling en klik op de gewenste video link.

AFBEELDING INVOEGEN/VERANDEREN

1

Wanneer nodig, verwijder de bestaande afbeelding d.m.v. de ‘Delete’-knop. Klik op het pictogram om een nieuwe afbeelding in te voegen.�(zie onderstaand voorbeeld).

2

Selecteer de gewenste afbeelding�en klik op ‘Invoegen’.

3

Klik met de rechter muisknop op de afbeelding en kies ´Naar achtergrond´.

Invoegen

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You can determine �if your organisation must be resilient or antifragile.

Your take away

When applicable, the “resilient ór antifragile model” �supports you in determining �which change is needed to achieve a resilient or antifragile organisation.

What is relevant for my context?

Can we implement the choice?

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How fragile is your system?

Fragile

Robust

Antifragile

Stress

Value

Stress

Value

Stress

Value

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How fragile is your system?

Fragile

Robust

Antifragile

Stress

Value

Stress

Value

Stress

Value

We do not want organisations to be fragile.�We want to be resilient. What is resilience?

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Shared Lens

What is fragile and anti-fragile?

�What is resilience?

�The EAAL framework.

INTRO (100%)

Naar voorgrond

Naar achtergrond

Meer weten?�Ga naar dia ‘Instructie dia: YouTube links’, open deze in de diavoorstelling en klik op de gewenste video link.

AFBEELDING INVOEGEN/VERANDEREN

1

Wanneer nodig, verwijder de bestaande afbeelding d.m.v. de ‘Delete’-knop. Klik op het pictogram om een nieuwe afbeelding in te voegen.�(zie onderstaand voorbeeld).

2

Selecteer de gewenste afbeelding�en klik op ‘Invoegen’.

3

Klik met de rechter muisknop op de afbeelding en kies ´Naar achtergrond´.

Invoegen

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Generic definition of resilience

Value

Time

Absorb

Recover

(old) normal

Resilience

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3 types of resilience by Martin-Breen

Engineering

Resilience

Complex Adaptive System Resilience

Time

Value

Time

Value

Systems �Resilience

Value

Time

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Resilience by Martin-Breen

Engineering

Resilience

Complex Adaptive System Resilience

Time

Value

Time

Value

Systems �Resilience

Value

Time

The what stays the same

The how stays the same

The what stays the same

The how changes

The what changes

The how changes

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Shared Lens

What is fragile and anti-fragile?

What is resilience?

�The EAAL framework.

INTRO (100%)

Naar voorgrond

Naar achtergrond

Meer weten?�Ga naar dia ‘Instructie dia: YouTube links’, open deze in de diavoorstelling en klik op de gewenste video link.

AFBEELDING INVOEGEN/VERANDEREN

1

Wanneer nodig, verwijder de bestaande afbeelding d.m.v. de ‘Delete’-knop. Klik op het pictogram om een nieuwe afbeelding in te voegen.�(zie onderstaand voorbeeld).

2

Selecteer de gewenste afbeelding�en klik op ‘Invoegen’.

3

Klik met de rechter muisknop op de afbeelding en kies ´Naar achtergrond´.

Invoegen

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You can determine �if your organisation must be resilient or antifragile.

Your take away

When applicable, the “resilient ór antifragile model” �supports you in determining �which change is needed to achieve a resilient or antifragile organisation.

What is relevant for my context?

Can we implement the choice?

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Engineering

Resilience

Systems

Resilience

Attenuate Variety

Amplify Variety

Complex Adaptive

System Resilience

Antifragile

Top-down C&C

Micro-management

Redundancy

Modularity

Loosely coupled

Diversity

Non-monotonicity

Emergence

Self-organization

Insert low-level stress

Network-connections

Fail Fast

Resources to invest

Seneca’s barbell

Insert randomness

Reduce naive intervention

Skin in the game

Learning Organization�Personal mastery, Shared mental models, Building shared vision,

Team learning, Systems thinking.

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Engineering

Resilience

Systems

Resilience

Attenuate Variety

Top-down C&C

Micro-management

Redundancy

Modularity

Loosely coupled

Learning Organization�Personal mastery, Shared mental models, Building shared vision,

Team learning, Systems thinking.

Engineering

Resilience

Time

Value

Systems �Resilience

Value

Time

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Amplify Variety

Complex Adaptive

System Resilience

Antifragile

Diversity

Non-monotonicity

Emergence

Self-organization

Insert low-level stress

Network-connections

Fail Fast

Resources to invest

Seneca’s barbell

Insert randomness

Reduce naive intervention

Skin in the game

Learning Organization�Personal mastery, Shared mental models, Building shared vision,

Team learning, Systems thinking.

Complex Adaptive System Resilience

Time

Value

Antifragile

Value

Stress

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Engineering

Resilience

Systems

Resilience

Attenuate Variety

Amplify Variety

Complex Adaptive

System Resilience

Antifragile

Top-down C&C

Micro-management

Redundancy

Modularity

Loosely coupled

Diversity

Non-monotonicity

Emergence

Self-organization

Insert low-level stress

Network-connections

Fail Fast

Resources to invest

Seneca’s barbell

Insert randomness

Reduce naive intervention

Skin in the game

Learning Organization�Personal mastery, Shared mental models, Building shared vision,

Team learning, Systems thinking.

Do you recognize the agile flavours?

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1. Determine per (sub) system of your organisation �the desired behavior on stressors��More resilience has value and also comes at a price and with consequences!

2. Start improving your Learning Organisation!

3. Start experimenting and learning!��Available tools are for example: �Cynefin for determining context,�Normalized Systems Theory and Enterprise Engineering for decoupling, �Threat Modelling for Business Continuity Management, �Modern Agile for Non-monotonicity and Emergence, �Chaos Engineering for Inserting Randomness …

Your 3 point action list

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Determine �and Learn

ebotjes@xebia.com

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FOTO (100%)

Naar voorgrond

Naar achtergrond

Meer weten?�Ga naar dia ‘Instructie dia: YouTube links’, open deze in de diavoorstelling en klik op de gewenste video link.

AFBEELDING INVOEGEN/VERANDEREN

1

Wanneer nodig, verwijder de bestaande afbeelding d.m.v. de ‘Delete’-knop. Klik op het pictogram om een nieuwe afbeelding in te voegen.�(zie onderstaand voorbeeld).

2

Selecteer de gewenste afbeelding�en klik op ‘Invoegen’.

3

Klik met de rechter muisknop op de afbeelding en kies ´Naar achtergrond´.

Invoegen

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Theoretical background

Deepdive

INTRO (100%)

Naar voorgrond

Naar achtergrond

Meer weten?�Ga naar dia ‘Instructie dia: YouTube links’, open deze in de diavoorstelling en klik op de gewenste video link.

AFBEELDING INVOEGEN/VERANDEREN

1

Wanneer nodig, verwijder de bestaande afbeelding d.m.v. de ‘Delete’-knop. Klik op het pictogram om een nieuwe afbeelding in te voegen.�(zie onderstaand voorbeeld).

2

Selecteer de gewenste afbeelding�en klik op ‘Invoegen’.

3

Klik met de rechter muisknop op de afbeelding en kies ´Naar achtergrond´.

Invoegen

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Fooled by Randomness�The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

2001

2007

2012

The Black Swan�The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Antifragile�Things that Gain from Disorder

Random things happen all the time

Models are fragile for unexpected things

Antifragile systems survive unexpected things

Keywords: ISO 31000:2018, VUCA, double pendulum, chaos, complexity, hyperconnected graphs, complexity science, Cynefin, digital transformation

Keywords: Plato’s cave, Kant’s “Ding für mich”, Ciborra, replication crisis, correlation vs causality, function vs construction

Keywords: resilience, gain from pain, only way to survive a black-swan

Storyarc by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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What is Chaos?

Cause and effect are unclear. - Dave Snowden

When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future. - Edward Lorenz

Knowledge of the situation in the now has no connection to the knowledge of the situation in the future.

You do not see a correlation in your observations.

You do not know any causal relation between action and observation (input/output).

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An example of a simple chaotic system

A double pendulum is a pendulum with another pendulum attached to its end, and is a simple physical system that exhibits rich dynamic behavior with a strong sensitivity to initial conditions

The motion of a double pendulum is governed by a set of coupled ordinary differential equations and is chaotic.

A double pendulum starts simple but with a bit of energy the system becomes chaotic (unpredictable). This is caused by the amplification of very small differences.

1

2

Double Pendulum

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Nonlinear dynamical systems

Butterfly Effect

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Randomness in Risk management

Randomness is the lack of pattern or predictability in events.

When a system loses value through a random (stress)event, it is a Fragile system.

Risk is defined in ISO 31000 as the effect of uncertainty on objectives.

Randomness is a special kind of uncertainty.

Risk management is the identification, evaluation, and prioritization of risks,

followed by coordinated and economical application of resources

to minimize, monitor, and control the probability or impact of unfortunate events

or to maximize the realization of opportunities.

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Randomness is the default state of the world

Risk management (ISO 31000) states that the world is VUCA.

This term is also used in other business literature and in DevOps.

VUCA originates from 1987 in the US military and leadership literature.

Non-stop randomness is the effect of a highly-connected world that has chaos as result.

The key takeaway is: there is always some fundamental randomness no matter how hard you think about it. This is also called Chaos.

Volatility

Uncertain

Complex

Ambiguous

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System-of-System & Context

Most things in our universe are a recursion.

Not all the things are a nonlinear system.

How do I make sense of it all?

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Cynefin Framework

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330500755

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Cynefin abstract examples

Simple

Complicated

Complex

A set of pentagon tiles is a simple pattern because there are many symmetries, meaning a small set of rules governing the system can be used to generate the whole pattern.

A tangled ball of string is complicated because there are no symmetries to the pattern, this a detailed description of the entire pattern is needed to understand it fully.

Complex patterns involve the interaction between symmetries and asymmetry; a disorder with underlying order, neither too random nor too symmetric.

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Cynefin Framework

Cause and effect can only be deduced in retrospect, and there are no right answers.

Impervious to a reductionist, take-it-apart-and-see-how-it-works approach, because your very actions change the situation in unpredictable ways.

Events in this domain are too confusing to wait for a knowledge-based response.

The first and only way to respond appropriately is action.

The relationship between cause and effect requires analysis or expertise; there are a range of right answers.

Here it is possible to work rationally toward a decision but doing so requires refined judgment and expertise.

This means that there are rules in place (or best practice), the situation is stable, and the relationship between cause and effect is clear.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330500755

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Cynefin - which perspective to use ?

Holistic

approach

Reductionistic

approach

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330500755

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Cynefin - what to do?

Probe

Sense

Respond

Act

Sense

Respond

Sense

Analyze�Respond

Sense

Categorize

Respond

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330500755

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New dominant organizational paradigm.

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/organization/our-insights/the-five-trademarks-of-agile-organizations