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The IPCC 4^th assessment:

Influence of Future Changes in Emissions

on Atmospheric Chemistry by 2030.

Jérôme Drevet - Isabelle Bey

Frank Dentener - David Stevenson – Twan Van Noije

And all modelers:

J.F. Müller, Arlene Fiore, Tim Butler, Michael Gauss, Didier Hauglustaine, Kengo Sudo, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Oliver Wild, Veronica Montanaro, Jose M. Rodriguez, Martin G. Schultz, Jean-François Lamarque

GEOS-CHEM meeting

04-05-2004

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IPCC – AR 4

The IPCC 4^th Assessment Report (AR4) will be completed in 2006. Chapter 7 will focus on Coupling between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry.

2 experiments are performed:

Experiment I (delta O₃ - RF): Examines past changes in ozone (1850-2000) and for the future (by 2100)
Experiment II (AQ - climate): Examines changes in atmospheric composition by 2030 using a variety of models (CTMs and CCMs).

- tropospheric ozone

- N-deposition

- NO₂ columns

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24 Models

IASB

KNMI

TM4

TM5

MATCH-MPIC-NCEP

MATCH-MPIC-ECNWF

UIO2

LMDz

STOCHEM-HadGEM

STOCHEM-HadAM3

GEOS-CHEM

GISS

MOCAGE

FRSGC_UCI

ULAQ

GMIDAO

GMICCM

MOZECH

LLNL

MOZART4

STOCED

UM_CAM

CHASER CTM

CHASER GCM

GEOS v7.01.02

GEOS3 - 30 vertical

levels

4°x5° horizontal

grid resolution

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IPCC4 Scenarios

Climate Change Simulation. Prescribed SST data for 2030

A2 with ‘high’ ship emissions

A2 (the most ‘pessimistic’ IPCC SRES scenario), harmonized with IIASA emissions for 2000

MFR (Maximum Feasible Reduction) for 2030 :

optimistic technology scenario.

CLE for 2030

Baseline : Current Legislation of Emissions (CLE) for 2000

Description

2088 ppbv

2163 ppbv

1760 ppbv

2088 ppbv

1760 ppbv

CH₄ concentration

2000

A2-2030

S4s

2030

CLE-2030

S5

2000

A2-2030

S4

2000

MFR-2030

S3

2000

CLE-2030

S2

2000

CLE-2000

S1

Meteo

ID emissions

Sim

Here are presented the five simulations we were expected to conduct: S1 to S5.

S1 is a reference simulation for the year 2000 using the CLE-2000 (Current Legislation Emissions) scenario of emission.

The S2…S4 simulations use anticipated scenarios of emissions for 2030 and meteorological fields for 2000. The goal is to investigate only on the influence of changes in emission.

In S2 we use the CLE-2030 scenario which is an intermediate scenario. In S3, we use the MFR-2030 scenario of emission which is the most optimistic one. S4 uses the A2-2030, a pessimistic scenario of emissions. We conducted in fact a S4 simulation with special ship emissions:S4s

The S5 simulation is for CGM model and we didn’t conduct this simulation.

We were free to conduct the simulations we wanted. We just had to impose methane concentrations and anthropogenic emissions.

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Anthropogenic Emissions

	Agriculture	Industry	Domestic Emissions	Traffic	TOTAL
CO (Tg CO)	-	38-41 34-74	238-185 139-387	195-171 50-300	471-397 223-761
NMVOC (Tg NMVOC)	-	39-46 40-71	29-24 18-40	48-44 15-65	116-114 73-176
NO_x (Tg NO₂)	-	34-36 11-57	5-6 4-15	53-65 28-107	92-107 43-179
SO₂ (Tg SO₂)	-	88-90 15-148	10-8 4-20	11-16 14-32	109-114 33-200
NH₃ (Tg NH₃)	53-71 71-74	0.5-0.8 0.8-0.8	6-7 7-8	-	60-79 79-83

CLE-2000 CLE-2030 MFR-2030 A2-2030

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O₃ annual zonal mean (CLE-2000)

Annual Zonal Mean O₃ S1

Mask O₃>150ppbv

Courtesy: David Stevenson

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O₃ Budget (CLE-2000)

Values in Tg O₃

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Ozone zonal mean - ΔO3 (S2-S1)

-10 -5 0 5 10

ppbv

Courtesy: David Stevenson

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Ozone zonal mean - ΔO3 (S3-S1)

-10 -5 0 5 10

ppbv

Courtesy: David Stevenson

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Ozone zonal mean - ΔO3 (S4-S1)

-20 -10 0 10 20

ppbv

Courtesy: David Stevenson

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Annual NO_y Deposition (Tg N)

Courtesy: Frank Dentener

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NO_y Deposition (CLE-2000)

Courtesy: Frank Dentener

CHASER (FRCGC)

TM4 (JRC)

MOZART4 (NCAR)

GEOS-CHEM

mg N/m²/year

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NO_y Deposition (S1) – zoom over Europe

CHASER (FRCGC)

TM4 (JRC)

MOZART4 (NCAR)

GEOS-CHEM

Courtesy: Frank Dentener

mg N/m²/year

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Wet Deposition / Total deposition

Courtesy: Frank Dentener

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NO_y Wet deposition Evaluation

Courtesy: Frank Dentener

CHASER (FRCGC)

TM4 (JRC)

MOZART4 (NCAR)

GEOS-CHEM

0 100 200 300 400 500 ( mgN / m2 / year)

0 100 200 300 400 500

0 100 200 300 400 500 ( mgN / m2 / year)

0 100 200 300 400 500

Observations - EMEF

M

o

d

e

l

M

o

d

e

l

M

o

d

e

l

M

o

d

e

l

R=0.78

R=0.81

R=0.70

R=0.84

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Annual NH_x Deposition (Tg N)

Courtesy: Frank Dentener

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NH_xDeposition (S1)

Courtesy: Frank Dentener

CHASER (FRCGC)

TM4 (JRC)

MOZART4 (NCAR)

GEOS-CHEM

mg N/m²/year

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Wet deposition/Total Deposition

Courtesy: Frank Dentener

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N-Deposition in GEOS-CHEM: �Comparisons between different runs

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NO₂ column

Courtesy: Twan Van Noije

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Conclusion

O₃ simulation :

- GEOS-CHEM is in the middle range in general

- Production and loss rates in the low range

- Decrease in concentration for the MFR-2030 scenario in the very high range. Problem ?

- In general it seems that the differences between all models are smaller than for the previous IPCC.

Deposition :

- NO_y and NH_X Global values and patterns in the middle range

- Ratio wet deposition/total deposition in the low range.

- Ratio wet deposition/total deposition varies a lot with the version of GEOS meteorological fields.

- Sulfur deposition in the middle range

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The End

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Ozone Surface Concentrations

S1-Sref

S2-S1

S3-S1

S4-S1

-20 -10 -5 -2 0 2 5 10 20

ppb

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Ozone Column

S1-Sref

S2-S1

S3-S1

S4-S1

-15 -7 4 2 0 2 4 7 15

DU

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N Emissions

0 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.5 1 2 5

gN/year

NO_x

NH₃

IIASA-CLE-2000

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NO_x emissions

S1-Sref

S2-S1

S3-S1

S4-S1

-5 -0.5 -0.05 -0.005 0 0.005 0.05 0.5 5

gN/m²/year

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NO_y deposition

S1-Sref

S2-S1

S3-S1

S4-S1

-5 -0.5 -0.05 -0.005 0 0.005 0.05 0.5 5

gN/m²/year

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NH₃ emissions

S1-Sref

S2-S1

S3-S1

S4-S1

-5 -0.5 -0.05 -0.005 0 0.005 0.05 0.5 5

gN/m²/year

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NH_x deposition

S1-Sref

S2-S1

S3-S1

S4-S1

-5 -0.5 -0.05 -0.005 0 0.005 0.05 0.5 5

gN/m²/year