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�The war in Ukraine: Towards a new armed global bipolarity?

José Ángel Ruiz Jiménez

UMY

April 5th 2023

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The Post Cold War Order

  • New World Order
  • Paradigms: unipolarity, the end of history and the clash of civilizations
  • Time of opportunity for the New American Century

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2001-2014: US expansionism

  • New step after war on drugs and humanitarian wars (1991-1999)
  • The war on (Muslim) terror
  • Invasions of Afghanistan and Irak
  • Harassment on Russia and Iran
  • Libya (2011)

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2001-2014: American expansionism

  • Wars on drugs and Humanitarian Wars
  • The war on (Muslim) terror
  • Afganistán (2001) and Irak (2003)
  • Libya (2011)
  • Permanent harassment on Iran and Russia

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Clash of narratives: the West

  • Mighty and expansionist Russia attacks a smaller sovereign state
  • Russia breaks International Law taking advantage of the UN system
  • Humanitarian crisis: civilian victims and refugees
  • Economic sanctions on Russia and military help to Ukraine
  • Necessary remilitarisation of the US and the UE

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Clash of Narratives: Russia

  • Ukraine is part of Russia, but poisoned by the West to join NATO
  • Western Strategy to suffocate Russia
  • Humanitarian war to protect the Russian minority of a nazi State
  • Preventive military move in Dombass
  • Crusade to preserve national, family and religious values

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Russian military interventions 1999-2022. A collision course?

  • Chechenia (1994-96 and 1999-2009)
  • Georgia: Abkhazia and South Osetia (2008)
  • Siria (2014)
  • Ucrania: Crimea and Dombass (2014-2022)
  • Ucrania: full scale invasion (2022)

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Clash of narratives: Ukraine

  • False brotherhood of exploitative Russia
  • Break of good terms in 2014 after the Russian taking of Crimea and its support to the separatarist Dombass region
  • Renewed nationalist blooming against external agression
  • Civilian victims of massacres and material destruction of key infrastructures
  • Legitimate expectations of joining NATO and UE

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Deceitful and frustrated war expectations for all

  • Russia: to recover Ukraine, to reunify the Russian nation and to win back superpower status
  • West: to expand NATO and UE and to weaken Russia
  • Ukraine: to regain its previous borders and to join the prosperous and powerful West

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Diplomacy, pacifism and peace research

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  • Ignored because of war naïve victory expectations
  • Would Realist turn to peaceful solutions happen only after a dead end?
  • Valuable and active though yet invisible peace initiatives
  • Hope on society, academy and diplomacy (ONU and OSCE’)

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2014-2022�Transition towards a global armed bipolarity?

  • US failure in Irak and Afghanistan
  • Russian success in Georgia, Ukraine and Syria (2008-14)
  • Reemergence of China
  • New armed peace between two blocs?

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Conclusions

  • Landmark moment for the world order and the peace and war cycle?
  • Tendency to a global armed bipolarity
  • From freedom and unprecedented information access to echo chambers
  • Peace initiatives are the best hope for a way out

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