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The future of education and skills

British Expertise International - Andreas Schleicher

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Many disconnects

Financial economy

Infinite growth imperative

Gross domestic product

The wealthy

Technology

Governance

Real economy

Finite resources of planet

Well-being of people

The poor

Social needs

Voicelessness of people

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The future will always surprise us

Impact

Uncertainty

Climate change

Ageing

Data breaches

General Artificial Intelligence

Energy cuts

Internet disrupted

Economic shocks

Natural disasters

(cyber) war

Pandemics

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New sources of growth

Growth

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The rise of Big Tech

Figure 1.4

Source: OECD(2019), An Introduction to Online Platforms and Their Role in the Digital Transformation, https://doi.org/10.1787/53e5f593-en;

`companies’ annual reports; and https://macrotrends.net

Annual revenue of top four companies from the Fortune 500 in 1960 vs “Big Four” tech companies, 2005-2020

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Intangible innovation�Trademark applications for the top five offices, 1940-2019

Figure 1.3

Source: WIPO (2020), World Intellectual Property Indicators 2020, https://www.wipo.int/

2019

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Growing grey

Working and living

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Figure 1.6

Productivity as an offset to an ageing population?

Real GDP per capita growth in the OECD area in the baseline scenario, 2005-2060

Source: OECD (2021), “The Long Game: Fiscal Outlooks to 2060 Underline Need for Structural Reform”, https://doi.org/10.1787/b4f4e03e-en.

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Work to live or live to work?

Working and living

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Labour markets undergoing rapid, fundamental change

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Knowledge societies

Knowledge and power

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The wisdom of crowds

Number of pages in all wikis, 2001-2021

Figure 3.2

Source: Wikimedia (2021), Pages to Date, All Wikis, https://stats.wikimedia.org/

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Task-oriented navigation activities (PISA 2018)

Fig 3.7

Percentage of students who self activated the multiple-source by clicking hyperlink

Highly effective navigation

Actively explorative navigation

Limited navigation skills

No navigation skills

But being digital natives doesn’t mean children are digitally skilled.

Here you see the share of students who PISA shows to be effective navigators of the internet. As you see here, Korea is the only OECD country where more than half of the 15-year-olds are fit for the digital world, like figuring out fake news.

In most OECD countries students have still limited digital navigation skills or not even the basics.

Now you can say that humans have always been better to invent new tools than to use them wisely, but this is clearly something education needs to address. A

But the availability of knowledge does not guarantee access to it or the skills to use it.

So how can we better support all individuals to access and use knowledge effectively? What types of education are needed to enable students, teachers and education leaders to do that effectively?

Is more knowledge always better?

What (digital) skills and attitudes are needed to effectively evaluate the quality and trustworthiness of information? How can we support teachers to validate the knowledge they use in their practice?

Our social circles also influence our access to knowledge. Should educational institutions work more actively to strengthen (digital) social ties? If so, how?

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Money is necessary but not sufficient

Fig I.4.4

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It’s not lack of learning time, it’s lack of productivity

Time in school

Learning out of school

Productivity

Note: Learning time is based on reports by 15-year-old students in the same country/economy in response to the PISA 2015 questionnaire, Productivity is measured by score points in reading per hour of total learning time

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Share of graduates having a highly innovative job� (Product /service innovation)

Source: OECD, based on REFLEX and HEGESCO data

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15-year-olds report lower creativity than 10-year-olds

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Figure 4.3

Age gaps in creativity

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New employment for a new age?

The soft skills of the 20^th century are becoming the hard skills of the 21^st century (and vice versa)

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Digitalisation

Democratizing

Concentrating

Particularizing

Homogenizing

Empowering

Disempowering

The new nature of the firm

Digital “platform” technology drives the (re)organisation of firms

Small units of employment with global reach require re-think of what “small” means (employment or revenue to market share)

Peer-to-peer markets are blurring the distinction between a consumer and a business

Governments work with platforms to implement policies

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Digital Taylorism�Online Labour Index (OLI), May 2016-May 2021

Source: Kässi, O., C. Hadley and V. Lehdonvirta (2019), Online Labour Index: Measuring the Online Gig Economy for Policy

and Research, figshare Dataset. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.3761562.v1842.

Figure 2.4

Online Labour Index

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Many jobs are digitally-intensive�Employment in digital-intensive sectors as a share of total employment (2016)

Source:OECD Going Digital Toolkit, based on European Labour Force Surveys, national labour force surveys and other national sources..

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The kinds of things that are easy to teach…

Non-routine tasks

Routine tasks

Technology-intensive tasks

Low-technology

use

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… have now become easy to digitise and automate

Non-routine tasks

Routine tasks

Technology-intensive tasks

Low-technology

use

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BIG

IDEAS

OECD Learning Compass 2030

Knowledge

Skills

Values

Attitudes

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Well-Being

2030

Lern-�grundlagen

Reconciling tensions, dilemmas, navigating ambiguity

Taking

responsibility

Creating new value

Transformative

Competencies

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Design principles for processes

10. Engagement

11. Student agency

12. Teacher agency

Design principles beyond school

7. Authenticity

8. Flexibility

9. Alignment

Design principles across disciplines

4. Transferability

5. Interdisciplinary

6. Choice

Design principles within a discipline

1. Focus

2. Rigor

3. Coherence

Animation -

Design principles within a discipline

1. Focus: A relatively small number of topics should be introduced in each grade to ensure the depth and quality of students’ learning. Topics may overlap in order to reinforce key concepts.

2. Rigour: Topics should be challenging and enable deep thinking and reflection.

3. Coherence: Topics should be sequenced to reflect the logic of the academic discipline or disciplines on which they draw, enabling progression from basic to more advanced concepts through stages and age levels.

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Design principles across disciplines

4. Transferability: The curriculum should be structured in ways that allow students to understand big ideas (or fundamental concepts) underpinning a particular discipline and, furthermore, see the applicability across different disciplines. The curriculum should also recognise how students can develop skills, attitudes and values in particular disciplinary contexts while they can also apply these skills, attitudes and values across different disciplines and contexts.

5. Interdisciplinarity (interrelatedness): The curriculum should provide students with opportunities to discover how a topic or concept can link and connect to other topics or concepts within and across disciplines, and further into their life outside of school.

6. Choice: The curriculum should offer a wide range of topics and project options and provide opportunities to students to suggest their own topics and projects, with the support to make well-informed choices, especially for disadvantaged students.

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Design principles beyond school

7. Authenticity: The curriculum should provide space and links to the real world, where appropriate. This requires interdisciplinary and collaborative experiences outside school, alongside mastery of discipline-based knowledge in school.

8. Flexibility: Schools and teachers should be able to update, adapt and align the curriculum to reflect evolving societal issues, as well as individual learning needs.

9. Alignment: Pedagogies and assessment practices should be well aligned with the curriculum. Alignment and conceptual coherence between curricula across different levels of education are important to ensure continuity of lifelong learning. While the technologies to assess many of the desired outcomes may not yet exist, new teaching and assessment methods should be developed that value holistic student outcomes, including both learning and well-being outcomes. Initial teacher education and professional development should also be aligned with the curriculum.

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Design principles for processes

10. Engagement: Teachers, students and other relevant stakeholders should be involved early in the development of the curriculum, to ensure their ownership and facilitate implementation.

11. Student agency: The curriculum should provide a carefully designed space for students to participate in the curriculum design and implementation processes, to ensure the relevance of the curriculum (e.g. motivate them and recognise their prior knowledge, skills, attitudes and values), as well as to ensure that students feel a sense of ownership of their own learning.

12. Teacher agency: Teachers should be empowered to use their professional knowledge, skills and expertise to co-design and deliver the curriculum effectively.

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New technologies for new learning

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New learning experiences

Many online and distance learning and other innovative approaches such as AR, VR and AI were created, adapted and expanded.

Image sources: Electude Classroom and Labster Labs’ virtual labs; Oxford University’s LIFE project, a smartphone-based virtual learning platform

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Learning analytics

Learning analytics helps educators personalise learning

in real time
as a reflective tool

Data come from sensors, learning management systems and digital activities of learners

When should you shift to a new activity?
Are you losing the attention of learners?
How do you struture instruction time (lecture, small group, discussion, assessment, practice, etc.)?
Which students do you talk to and support the most?

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Assessments and exams

New types of assessments through simulations and games

Adaptive assessments

Hands-on assessment in vocational settings

Increasing reliability of machine rating for essays

Predictive models may disrupt the exam model

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Thank you

Find out more about our work at www.oecd.org/education

All publications
The complete micro-level database

Email: Andreas.Schleicher@OECD.org

Twitter: SchleicherOECD

Wechat: AndreasSchleicher

and remember:

Without data, you are just another person with an opinion