Framing Approaches to Climate Change Problem Solving

Richard B. Rood

University of Michigan

Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering (CLaSP)

rbrood@umich.edu

http://clasp.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood

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May 14, 2020

Outline

• Background: Problem Solving
• Framing
• Communication and Continuity
• Framing: Climate Change
• Climate Change in Context
• Taking Control as Individuals
• Wrap Up and Final Comments

Climate Change Problem Solving?

• A set of courses developed to support the Applied Climate Masters in CLaSP
• Introduce climate science
• Introduce the intersection of climate science with other subjects
• Elements of and techniques of complex problem solving
• Starting in Winter 2021
• Certificate in Climate Change Solutions

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What I strive to teach

• How do we – our students – gain some “control” over how climate change will impact the planet and our lives?

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• Techniques of “problem solving”

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• Work to accelerate the incorporation of climate change knowledge into design, planning, engineering, and management

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Gaining control?

• Recognize we have always had to live with a challenging climate.
• knowledge base
• experience base

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• Use knowledge to overcome the anxiety that leads to paralysis and inaction

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• Use knowledge to recognize and overcome barriers to applying climate knowledge

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• Identify and implement no-regrets mitigation and adaptation actions

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Problem Solving: Foundational Elements

• Knowledge system theory
• Science usability theory
• Framing
• Communications and Continuity
• Engagement
• Uncertainty management
• Skills for multi-constituency problem solving
• Decision analysis and decision making

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Framing: Climate Change

Accumulation of Heat

• The Earth is observed to be accumulating energy (heat). Most convincing evidence is
• The increasing heat content of the oceans
• Melting of ice sheets, glaciers, and permafrost
• Changes in ecosystems and agriculture

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• Because of this accumulation of heat:
• Sea level is increasing.
• Ice is melting.
• The average temperature of the surface is increasing.
• The weather is changing.

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• All scientific evidence suggests that these trends will continue for the foreseeable future.

• We are, today, ~ 1 degree C warmer, globally, than pre-industrial (1750 base)
• There are many regions where we are above 2 degrees C

• When were you born?
• Median age of world is ~ 31 years.

Temperature (~Traverse City)

1950s

1960s

1970s

1990s

2000s

2010s

1980s

Michigan Climate Division # 3:

Northwest Lower Peninsula

Directional (Up)

Consequences of Accumulation of Heat

• Built environments are being affected.
• Natural systems are being affected.
• We are challenging the balanced systems in which we have evolved and developed.
• Thought problem: role of sea level stability at the end of last ice age and emergence of civilization and commerce

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Attributes of the Accumulation of Heat

• Introduce time: “Rapid”
• Human life span
• How long we build things to last
• How long we plan for
• Ability of ecosystems to respond
• Introduce severity: “Dangerous”
• There are those to whom the present 1 C climate change is “dangerous.”
• Therefore, “dangerous” climate change is unavoidable.

Framing and Communication

• We are at the beginning of a time of rapid and accelerating climate change.
• The “climate” in 30 years will be different from now.

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• 100 years from now will be different than 30 years
• We can influence where we will be in 100 years.

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• We need to alter our behavior to incorporate the fact that the climate will be changing in ways that are
• Directional in terms of accumulation of heat
• More variable because of more heat
• Unlike we have experienced
• Likely, worse than we expect; it will be “dangerous.”

Climate Change in Context

Placing Climate Change in Context

• Upward Trend in Global Temperature
• Global Warming
• Accumulation of Heat
• Increasing of Sea Level
• Melting of Ice Sheets and Glaciers
• Changing Weather

• Increasing carbon dioxide is the most important cause of climate change
• Primarily cause of increase of carbon dioxide is burning fossil fuels
• Controlling carbon dioxide pollution is, presently, our most important way to manage climate change.

Context: Energy

• 70 – 80 % of Energy comes from fossil fuels
• A very stubborn number
• Energy use is increasing
• Causes an increase in emissions as fossil fuels remain the primary source of energy
• Counters the decreases in emissions realized in some countries
• Substantial portion of increasing energy in developed countries is from renewable sources

Context: Standard of Living

• Standard of Living is directly related to energy access and energy use
• We want energy to be cheap

Context: Population

• Population is growing
• Population wants to raise their Standard of Living
• Population needs access to Energy

Context: Social Justice

• Raising the Standard of Living of more of Population is an issue of Social Justice
• We are talking access to refrigeration and water
• We are talking jobs
• Social Justice is very complicated

Context: Economy

• It is all about the Economy
• Growing Economy is needed to provide jobs for growing Population
• Growing Economy needed to raise the Standard of Living
• Growing economy is needed for retirement

Context: Consume

• A good Economy requires us to Consume goods and services
• Goods and services require use of Energy
• Energy relies on fossil fuels

Context: Wealth

• Wealth and Standard of Living vastly influence how we think and act about the Climate
• Values
• Individual
• Collective

Climate as a priority?

• Economic Insecurity

• Energy Insecurity

• Threatens Wealth

Then, how important is Climate Change?

Climate as a priority?

• Economic Insecurity

• Threatens Wealth

Then, how important is Climate Change?

Climate Change & __________

Rockstrom et al: A safe operating space for humanity, Nature, 2009

• These are, often, related to each other
• Sometimes in ”tension” with each other
• Have different priorities:
• Where?
• When?
• Who?
• Raise questions of Sustainability

Can we elevate Climate as a priority?

• Economic Insecurity

Climate Change Priority Amplified Through Relation with Other Issues

• Energy Insecurity

Taking Control as Individuals

Accumulation of choices

• Human-caused climate change is the consequence of the behaviors of individuals and societies accumulated over many years.
• It is the result of an uncountable number of small and large choices.
• Many of those choices have had direct benefit to us.
• As individuals
• As societies

Accumulation of choices

• That suggests, that solutions to climate change can also come from an uncountable number of small and large choices.

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• In fact, there is no one thing we can do and, hence, “solve” climate change.
• No one entity to blame
• No one entity to pay

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

Stakeholder Dependent Tradeoff Analysis

Political

Collaborative, Negotiation, Deliberation

Communication and Continuity

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Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Water Footprint

Cost

Land Footprint

All have multiple, competing goals

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Social Justice

Path Dependence

3

We may only be able to “see” one node ahead

We are down here

Choosing Paths

• Pick a problem with the opportunity to address it
• Determine sensitivity of problem to climate change
• Collaborative process with stakeholders
• Define management and planning goals at meaningful time horizons
• Decide what to do next – first steps
• Monitor evolution of climate change knowledge
• What is happening
• Understanding of what is happening
• Guidance/projection/prediction of what is happening
• Refine management and planning goals
• Does the problem have broader, strategic benefit?
• Repeat (because the climate will continue to change)

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Formalized Structure of Response

“Preventing”

“Responding”

• Anticipatory
• Societal
• Global
• Don’t know what you pay for

• Reactive
• Autonomous
• Individual
• Do know what you pay for

Adaptation is “easier” than Mitigation

A Communication Tactic

Adaptation versus Mitigation is a false choice.

We are required to do both.

Other false choices we face

• Adaptation versus Mitigation
• Climate versus Economy
• Climate versus Energy Security
• Standard of Living versus Carbon Dioxide
• Many others

These false choices are:

• A form of rhetoric
• A form of political argument
• Are a tactic to disrupt
• Exceedingly attractive
• Should be expected

Mitigation: A must do

• We must reduce emissions
• We must enhance carbon removal
• We must break the relation between Carbon Dioxide and Energy
• We must limit warming to keep carbon dioxide contained in frozen land and cold water

• Enhance biological removal
• Develop technological removal
• Develop policy and law to govern technological removal

A false choice: Mitigation versus Carbon Removal

Mitigation: A must do

• We must reduce emissions
• We must enhance carbon removal
• We must break the relation between Carbon Dioxide and Energy
• We must limit warming to keep carbon in frozen land and cold water

• aka: Geo-engineering
• This needs to be studied with a level of simulation yet to be achieved

Can we limit Climate Intervention to Carbon Removal?

Wrap Up

Framing and Communication

• On the time span of multiple generations of human lives, planning our cities, planning our agriculture, managing our ecosystems, we are not going back.
• “Conservation” has to change.
• “Preservation” has to change.
• “Legacy” has to change.

Framing and Communication

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• There will be loss, and we need to prepare for that loss.

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• There will also be opportunity and gain.

There are many paths for many meaningful problems

3

We may only be able to “see” one node ahead

We are down here

What we do:

Learning with change

• We are at a time of rapid and unprecedented climate change.
• We need to be using current weather disruptions to learn and prepare.
• We need to redefine our notions of conservation, preservation, and legacy.
• We need to prepare to deal with loss.
• We need to develop a culture of anticipating and preparing for climate change and its consequences.

Remember our experience

• We must learn to explicitly incorporate the impacts of climate change into all that we do.
• Presently, we have made intuitive or codified historic climate variability into our behavior, our buildings, our agriculture, our preservation, our conservation.
• We have proved we know how to do this.
• We have to do this again.

We have to limit warming

• We must mitigate and manage carbon dioxide and other waste products to limit climate change and other environmental damage.
• We need to develop the policy and practice relevant to technological management of carbon dioxide.

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How we go forward

• Take responsibility and move forward with choices at individual, organizational, local, and regional scales.
• It is easier to take action locally than globally; it is easier to take near-term than long-term actions
• Those choices need to consider their relation to climate change.
• Small choices accumulate to big outcomes.

Final comments

• Science and technological barriers are far more tractable than the political, societal, and cultural barriers.
• Basic human urges of acquisition, safety, exploration, etc.
• Our human challenges in investing for the future, for the common good
• Our ability and willingness to respond to disruption, disaster, and change.

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Final comments

• Climate science provides a usable vision of the future.
• This is unique in all of time.
• It is your most certain knowledge of the future.
• It could be least frightening.
• There are techniques and behavior to gain control over dealing with climate change.
• It is our choice of whether or not we do them.

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Additional Slides

Richard B (Ricky) Rood

https://clasp.engin.umich.edu/people/richard-b-rood/

https://michigantoday.umich.edu/category/columns/climate-blue/

https://openclimate.org/

Additional Slides

Wealth

Wealth

Mean January Temperatures

Traverse City, MI 1951-1980 vs 1981-2010

1951 - 1980

1981 - 2010

Temperature (~Traverse City)

Decadal-mean, global surface temperature: Difference from 1961-1990 average

degree C

When were you born?

World median age in 2020, 30.9 (UN)

80s

90s

00s

We are, today, 1 degree C warmer than pre-industrial

Sea Level Rise

High Emissions (RCP 8.5)

Low Emissions (RCP 2.6)

(Close to 2°C Goal)

Likely an underestimate

Continues on for centuries

Consequences of Accumulation of Heat

• For example:
• Sea level rise
• Snow stored in glaciers and ice sheets decrease
• Stream flows: flood and drought
• Changes in seasonal cycles
• Growing season getting longer
• Extreme weather
• Water, water, water (water stress and excess)
• For consumption
• For agriculture
• For ecosystems
• For energy production

Credibility, Legitimacy, Salience

• Legitimacy is an attribute of objectivity, fairness, and a lack of political bias.
• Credibility is an attribute of scientific adequacy.
• Salience requires that information be relevant to the problem to be addressed.
• Fit to problem
• Plausible, Trusted, Ethical

Some initial steps

• Do I have the skills and experience to take on this problem?
• Who are the stakeholders?
• What is the scope of the problem?
• What are the entry points to the problem?
• Where can most benefit be realized?
• What are the opportunities?

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Some initial steps

• Do I have the skills and experience to take on this problem?
• Expertise in some key aspect of the problem
• Knowledge of many aspects of the problem
• Ability to interpret information across fields
• Ability to identify power structures and barriers
• Ability to identify what is missing
• Ability to identify outcomes
• Ability to balance tensions

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Skill Set

• Distinguish between knowledge, inferences, and desires
• What do we know?
• What do we think we know?
• What do we want? Advocacy
• What are the desired outcomes?
• What are the possible outcomes?
• What are the essential gaps?
• Can we fill those gaps?
• Do we manage those gaps?

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Distractions and Diversions

• Use of uncertainty to generate doubt
• Need for more information to reduce uncertainty; hence, doubt
• Use of form of argument
• Subtext
• Uncommunicated goals
• Underlying power structure

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Decision Analysis

• Any decision can be broken into 3 parts
• What is the goal? (objective)
• What can be controlled? (decision variables)
• What can’t be controlled? (constraints)

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• What you can/can’t control may depend on who you are
• What you can/can’t control depends on time

Outcomes

• More information gathering
• More planning
• Decision package
• Decision: What to do next

Some Points to Pull from the Mire

Credibility

Legitimacy

Salience

Trust

Inventory

Analysis

Evaluation

Synthesis

Communication

Continuity

Identify “right” issues

Identify existing structure

Opportunity

Accelerate

Evolution, Revolution, Emergence

In Complex Problem Solving Bring Attention to Interfaces

• Climate – Energy – Population – Economic Success
• Climate – Health – Economic Success -
• Climate – Agriculture – Population – etc.
• etc …

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• What are the major sensitivities?
• What is entrée into the field and access to experts?
• access, scan, and evaluate knowledge
• Interpretation, translation and communication
• salient communication
• not dumbing down

Reducing Climate Complexity

TEMPORAL

NEAR-TERM

LONG-TERM

WEALTH

Small scales inform large scales.

Large scales inform small scales.

Need to introduce spatial scales as well

Sandvik: Wealth and Climate Change

Space and Time

Time

Spatial

Large

Long

Large

Short

Small

Short

Small

Long

Classic Mitigation

Intuitively Doable

Remember this curve

GOOD

BAD

Temperature

(other environmental parameter)

What is short-term and long-term?

25 years

50 years

75 years

100 years

0 years

ENERGY SECURITY

ECONOMY

CLIMATE CHANGE

Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ...

Election time scales

Responses to the Climate Change Problem

Autonomous/

Individual

Policy/

Societal

Reactive

Anticipatory

Adaptation

Mitigation

Schneider-Moss State of Knowledge

McKinsey 2007: Large

Climate Change Relationships

• Consumption // Population // Energy

CLIMATE CHANGE

ENERGY

POPULATION

CONSUMPTION

SOCIETAL SUCCESS

Pulling Back from � (Living at) the Climate Change Precipice

• Science and Technological Barriers are far more tractable than the political, societal, and cultural barriers.
• Basic human urges of acquisition, safety, exploration, …
• Must explicitly manage impacts of climate into our practice, behavior, and being.
• Emergence of disruptive, affordable technologies aided by policy at all levels.
• Monitoring, use-driven research, and education on what to do with our knowledge.

What is the Climate Change Precipice?

GOAT

Dangerous Climate Change?

2°C

1.5°C

1°C

Already?

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• Limit sea level rise to what we have already committed to?
• Approximately 10 meters

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• Slow rate of sea level rise?

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• Prevent melting of permafrost and release of stored greenhouse gases?

The Precipice

• With 1°C, we have already committed to approximately 10 meters sea level.
• With 2°C, historical records would suggest much more sea level rise.
• 2°C is likely to cause much melting of permafrost.
• 1.5°C is dangerous
• And we are already committed to that much warming

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The Precipice

• We are living at the precipice
• We need to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions by more than 90% rapidly.
• We need to remove carbon dioxide from atmosphere.
• We need to learn to manage our climate.
• We need to give the Earth the ability to cool.
• Our current behavior, as opposed to our words, do not have us on a path of 2°C
• Most optimistically, we are on a > 3°C path.
• The accumulated heat will take centuries to move through the system.
• We do not glide to a gentle landing.

Pulling Back from � (Living at) the Climate Change Precipice

• Accelerate our transition to carbon-dioxide free energy systems.
• Do not neglect the other causes of climate change – human-caused and natural
• Move Beyond Carbon Neutral
• Remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and, hence, the ocean.
• Seek solutions to carbon dioxide manage that are more “biological” than “mechanical.”
• Efficiency

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Pulling Back from � (Living at) the Climate Change Precipice

• Incorporate climate change into our built environment
• Sea level rise
• Extreme weather
• Incorporate climate change into our agriculture, food provision, and waste management.
• Incorporate climate change into our management of ecosystems and rapidly changing natural systems.
• Water, water, water.

Pulling Back from � (Living at) the Climate Change Precipice

• Science and Technological Barriers are far more tractable than the political, societal, and cultural barriers.
• Basic human urges of acquisition, safety, exploration, …
• Must “internalize” management of the climate into our practice, behavior, and being.
• Emergence of disruptive, affordable technologies aided by policy at all levels.
• Monitoring, use-driven research, and education on what to do with our knowledge.

Framing and Communication

• Climate change does not require a single outcome, e.g., lake levels will decrease (or, for example, hurricanes are more intense, etc.)

Framing and Communication

• We are a the start of a period of rapid climate change and we need to focus on, for example, 30 – 50 year time spans, and plan for adaptive adaptation.

More Variability

Secular Trend

You Can’t Go Home Again, Thomas Wolfe

All things belonging to the earth will never change--the leaf, the blade, the flower, the wind that cries and sleeps and wakes again, the trees whose stiff arms clash and tremble in the dark, and the dust of lovers long since buried in the earth--all things proceeding from the earth to seasons, all things that lapse and change and come again upon the earth--these things will always be the same, for they come up from the earth that never changes, they go back into the earth that lasts forever. Only the earth endures, but it endures forever.