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Course

“HYBRID CONFLICTS AS A THREAT TO SECURITY SYSTEMS”

Academic year 2022-2023

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Jean Monnet Module Erasmus+

“Civil society in conflict resolution process:

the EU experience for Ukraine”

101084973 — EURoCoRP — ERASMUS-JMO-2022-HEI-TCH-RSCH

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HYBRID CONFLICTS AS A THREAT TO SECURITY SYSTEMS

Course Content (1)

Topic 1: Introduction to the course “Hybrid conflicts as a threat to security systems”.

Topic 2: Current research on hybrid conflicts: the experience of the EU for Ukraine.

Topic 3: EU regulatory and legal support in the field of security.

Topic 4: The role of EU institutions in ensuring the 16th and 17th Sustainable Development Goals.

Topic 5: Institutional principles of counteracting hybrid conflicts in the EU and Ukraine.

Topic 6: Activities of The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats.

Topic 7: Universal and regional systems of collective security in counteracting hybrid conflicts.

Topic 8: Hybrid threats as an object of analysis in the social sciences.

Topic 9: Hybrid political conflict as an object of study and research.

Topic 10: Hybrid political conflict: origin, forms, causes, driving forces, specifics.

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HYBRID CONFLICTS AS A THREAT TO SECURITY SYSTEMS

Course Content (2)

Topic 11: Cycles of hybrid political conflict.

Topic 12: Hybrid war: types of weapons and ways to start a war.

Topic 13: Hybrid peace as a category in conflict studies.

Topic 14: Security asymmetry in the era of globalization.

Topic 15: Problems of deterrence of hybrid conflicts: EU practices.

Topic 16: Prevention as a way to counter hybrid conflicts.

Topic 17: Non-traditional threats and modern security systems.

Topic 18: OSCE cooperation with Ukraine in shaping the security system.

Topic 19: Reforming the security sector in the context of the spread of hybrid threats: the EU experience for Ukraine.

Topic 20: The role of the EU in resolving the current situation in Ukraine: humanitarian aid, investment support and EU sanctions policy.

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Topic 11: Cycles of hybrid political conflict

  • Cyclical development of the conflict of the hybrid type.
  • Phases of a hybrid political conflict.
  • Interchanging periods of active actions with periods of lull in hybrid conflicts.
  • Changing the number of priority issues according to changes in the cycle.
  • Correlation of the dynamics of the conflict with the cycle of political conflict of the hybrid type.

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Cyclical development of the conflict of the hybrid type

Conflict Cycle – the stages that most community conflicts go through. While it is worth noting that real life is not as discrete or as linear as the this graph might suggest, and that different stakeholders may reach each point at different times, the value of this cycle lies in using it as a diagnostic tool for determining what’s going on and how you might best intervene (Robinson, 1978)

1. Tension development. Parties begin taking sides. Tension development may appear immediately or over time.

2. Role dilemma. People involved start asking questions: what is happening, who is right, what should be done? Based on this information they may try to take sides. This may happen at the same time as tension development.

3. Injustice collecting. Each side seeks to gather support. Each itemizes the problem, justifies their position, and thinks of either revenge or strategies to 'win'.

4. Confrontation. The parties meet head-on. If each party holds fast to its side the showdown may cause permanent barriers.

5. Adjustments. Confrontation may be lessened or avoided by one or both parties making adjustments.

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Phases of a hybrid political conflict

This continuum of conflict depicts a range of different modes of conflict arrayed by increasing levels of violence, from measures short of armed conflict, to large-scale conventional wars, utilizing modality and scale of violence as distinguishing factors.

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Phases of a hybrid political conflict

Priming

  • In the priming phase, the actor’s ultimate goal is that the target will voluntarily make harmful choices and decisions. If there is already in this stage a plan that involves escalation toward a military conflict the actor will seek to infiltrate and predisposition its capabilities in the internal space of the target state.

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Destabilization through operations and campaigns

  • The destabilization phase is a stage that the actor intensifies the activity in the manner of a campaign (multiple operations), or to use for one operation with the aim of archiving the designated goal. Unlike in the priming phase, that aims to prime and by default gain something; information, positioning, testing information, learning or an advantage, in the destabilization phase there is pre-planned aim. In the destabilization phase, the activity becomes more visible, aggressive and possibly involves more violence. In this phase, the activity pushes the limits of acceptable and unacceptable, as well as legal and illegal action.

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Coercion through hybrid warfare

  • The activity has now moved beyond under-detection and underattribution and can be labelled hybrid warfare/war. Hybrid warfare represents the “hard end” of the escalation spectrum of Hybrid Threats activity.

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Phases of a hybrid political conflict

  1. Phase 1. Preparation – the launching of PsyOps (psychological operations) over the area of a planned conflict by rekindling separatist mindsets and creating an atmosphere of inevitable conflict, combined with diplomatic efforts in the international arena (both in relation to its own allies and the potential enemy’s allies).
  2. Phase 2. Disinformation – carrying out disinformation activities (at all levels, starting with strategic communications and ending with local messages) by all available communication media responsible for transferring information in the conflict area and in the international environment:

– In the diplomatic aspect – in order to achieve the desired response, each recipient (including the aggressor for internal needs) receives a message aimed at mitigating or exacerbating the actual picture of the situation. It must be adapted to the individual characteristics of the country, its international and internal situation (differing for politicians and for domestic public opinion);

– In the military aspect – throughout the whole period of the operation, conducting a significant number of exercises and repositioning of tactical battle groups by the aggressor, in the guise of carrying out a training cycle of military units in order to facilitate a covert deployment of troops intended for actions in the enemy area, and simultaneously distracting the enemy’s attention.

  1. Phase 3. Destabilizing – overpowering central and local centres of enemy authority, its power structures, media and business representatives, using commonly applied methods and tools, including political, economic and technologically advanced (e.g. cyber attacks).
  2. Phase 4. Military operations – establishing local units of separatists composed of e.g. national minorities acting with the support of armed forces and special forces of the aggressor (without any identifying marks), equipped with specialist equipment and armament, whose main task is to hinder the armed forces of the target country’s ability to conduct operations and in a coordinated way to take control of key installations and areas which exert an impact on the success of the operation (border crossings, media relay, major roads, bridges, railway lines and airports).
  3. Phase 5. Incorporation – establishing central and local authorities dependent on the aggressor that will support the process of a formal inclusion of the area of activity into the state structures of the aggressor (Gierasimow, 2013).

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Interchanging periods of active actions with periods of lull in hybrid conflicts

“The line that forms an arc from left to right across the diagram portrays the course of a conflict as it rises and falls in intensity over time. Its smoothly curving bell shape is oversimplified to characterize an 'ideal type' life history. As suggested by the arrows that deviate from the line, the course of actual conflicts can exhibit many different long and short lifehistory trajectories, thresholds, reversals, and durations. Even conflicts that have abated can re-escalate”

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Michael S. Lund. Preventing Violent Conflicts: A Strategy for Preventive Diplomacy

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Changing the number of priority issues according to changes in the cycle

Table provides an overview of the indicators that, taken together, give a general image of the developments and trends in hybrid conflict.

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Correlation of the dynamics of the conflict with the cycle of political conflict of the hybrid type

A hybrid threat transcends a blend of regular and irregular tactics. More than a decade ago, it was defined as an adversary that “simultaneously and adaptively employs a fused mix of conventional weapons, irregular tactics, catastrophic terrorism, and criminal behavior in the battlespace to obtain desired political objectives.”

 A combination of instruments, some military and some non-military, choreographed to surprise, confuse and wear down an opponent, hybrid warfare is ambiguous in both source and intent:

  • Political Aims
  • Intelligence
  • Organization
  • Multi-Dimensional Partnerships

Understanding our future security challenges demands that we reflect and interpret the past, understand the present, and think rigorously about what lies over the horizon in order to adapt to the changing character of conflict. This requires keeping an open and informed mind about the breadth of the various modes of conflict that exist.

Dr. Robert Johnson of Oxford’s Changing Character of War Programme

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Sources

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Jean Monnet Actions

Useful links

EURoCoRP

Ostroh Academy, NU

European Commission

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�Thank you for attention!

Prof. in charge – Kateryna Yakunina, PhD

Co-Lecturer - Sergii Ishchuk, Doc. Sci.

Co-Lecturer - Tetiana Sydoruk, Doc. Sci.

Co-Lecturer - Dmytro Shevchuk, Doc. Sci.

Co-Lecturer - Olena Shershnova, PhD

The National University of Ostroh Academy

https://www.oa.edu.ua/

https://eurocorp.oa.edu.ua/