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Understanding the Impact of Hostile IO on NATO C2: Morale and Cohesion

Zachary Devereaux – DRDC (Valcartier)

Victoria Signal – DRDC (Toronto)

Ryan Mitchell – DRDC (Toronto)

Unclassified

2025-10-17

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Agenda�1. Background�2. Method�3. Results I: COVID-19 Pandemic�4. Results II: Sexual Assault and Harassment�5. Discussion�6. Conclusion and Future Research

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Problem Background

  • Collaborative sense-making in C2
    • Empirical research suggests that Canada and Sweden share best practices in IO detection and deterrence
      • Interoperable frameworks and shared operational frameworks facilitate trust (Vassiliou, 2015)
      • Share open channels for feedback and analysis
      • Transparency, evidence-based decision making, adaptability (Fitzpatrick, 2022)
  • Understanding adversarial IO in CAF theatres of operation
  • Awareness amongst troops?

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Method

  • Survey, CAF members June 9, 2025 – August 5, 2025
    • Ethics approval process (HREC)
  • Ideally, an iterative survey to enhance best-practices and track growth longitudinally
  • First Wave: AI enabled survey methodology
  • Small n – preliminary findings, not representative of CAF population
  • Glitches – translation was rapid and accurate, but RAG for survey formatting across platforms with AI led to formatting issues
  • Solution to AI bugs – Human-in-the-Loop

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Findings

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Rent / Cost of Living

  • Highest recognition (9/53)
  • Confirmation Bias: Communities already worried about affordability are primed to accept simple explanations.
    • IO actors exploit this by presenting an intuitively appealing culprit (affluent outsiders), encouraging attribution errors and in-group/out-group framing.
  • Counter with: 
    • Broadening the cost-benefit frame: include employment, local business revenue, tax base effects, and infrastructure investments alongside price changes to present a fuller picture. 
    • Engage locally with facts: Provide community DIME data that tracks housing availability, average rents by segment, basket-of-goods indices, and job numbers, updated regularly, to reduce information vacuums that IO campaigns exploit.

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Results I: COVID-19 Pandemic Disinformation

  • Low awareness (1 in 53) 
  • Minimal Impact
    • Additional research needed to determine rotation yr
  • Neutral Perspective
  • Universal participation
  • Demographic analysis
  • Operational and Policy Considerations
    • Assessed Ineffectiveness
    • Perceived Effectiveness

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Results II: Sexual Assault and Harassment

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Results II: Sexual Assault and Harassment

  • Low awareness (4 in 53) but higher than COVID-19
  • Few female-identifying participants (13%)
  • Malinformation on sexual assault in the CAF present
  • Reputational attacks present
  • Operational and Policy Considerations
    • Transparency and accountability
    • Gender perspectives and hybrid engagement

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Discussion

  • Limitations
  • Series approval
  • Collaboration with SDU / PDA – Martin Schuller & Erik Bjurnstrom
  • (Un)awareness, inoculation, and education
  • Enhance training
  • Behavioural analysis
  • Regular monitoring

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Conclusion and Further Research

  • Future Survey Series are Needed
  • YOS and IO awareness
  • Disaggregation by language
  • Examine career stage, year(s) of posting/deployment
  • Clarify media source
  • Comparative analysis with NATO allies
  • Expand survey recruitment beyond CAF?

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Questions?

Point of Contact:

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Zachary Devereaux

Zachary.Devereaux@forces.gc.ca

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Victoria Tait-Signal

Victoria.signal@forces.gc.ca

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Ryan Mitchell

Ryan.Mitchell2@forces.gc.ca

  • Unclassified

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