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Wednesday, August 25, 2021�5:30 pm - 6:30 pm PDT

Oregon Redistricting:

Are You Ready?

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Panelists

Norman Turrill

LWVOR Action Committee

n.turrill@lwvor.org

Chris Cobey

LWVOR Redistricting

voterservice@

lwvpdx.org

Dan Vicuña

Common Cause

dvicuna@

commoncause.org

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The real Q: will there be a recording of this presentation available after this presentation? Yes, on at least the LWVOR redistricting website, in a few days. And if you want a copy of thse slides, which have links embedded within them, just send a request to lwvor@lwvor.org.

Here’s your lineup for the next 57 minutes:

Norman Turrill, former president of the LVWOR, a former board member of LWV of the US (and, so far, the only man to serve in that capacity), a member of the LWVPDX, and a redistricting activist since at least the 1980s in Oregon and Washington State.

Dan Vicuna, an attorney and the national redistricting director of Common Cause, another redistricting wonk with a multi-state perspective, who can put Oregon’s experience in a country-wide perspective.

And me, Chris Cobey, a board member of LWVPDX, a retired attorney, mayor, councilmember, and Hearst Castle guide, who’s been interested and involved in redistricting in two states for more decades than I want to admit.

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Tips to participate

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Agenda

What is redistricting?
How does it work in Oregon?
What’s happening now?
What happens next?
How YOU can get involved

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Questions for the audience

Do you expect the Oregon legislature to produce fair and representative new district maps?

Have you heard of ESRI?

Are you or your organization considering or planning to testify at or submit written statements for the September redistricting hearings?

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What is Redistricting?

Redistricting:

Using census data to equalize the population in voting districts of the same type.

In Oregon, legislative and congressional districts are drawn by the Oregon legislature.

�Fun Fact: Only TWICE since 1911 has the Oregon legislature passed a redistricting plan that was ultimately adopted

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Gerrymandering

Gerrymandering types

Racial
Partisan
Bipartisan
Prison gerrymandering

How it works: packing and cracking
Permissible deviations from the perfect population size �(706K / 141K / 70K)
What are the gerrymandering indicia? What should you look for?

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Dan -

Importance of redistricting, how it differs from gerrymandering

Many different species of gerrymandering

Racial: Drawing districts in ways that dilute the votes of people of color or language minorities

Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act has been interpreted in a case called Thornburg v. Gingles to have specific criteria to identify when a racial or language minority must have a district drawn in which they can elect their candidate of choice. Separately, there is a line of 14th Amendment equal protection cases stating that, except for those Voting Rights Act cases, race cannot be the predominant factor in drawing districts.

discuss court precedent on population deviation.

Bipartisan: safe districts, so voters lose.

Population deviation: fairly strict for congressional districts and the leading court case resulted in a deviation of less than one percent being struck down as too high (many states equalize down to one person). Parties challenging a congressional plan bear the burden of proving that population differences among districts could have been reduced or eliminated by a good-faith effort to draw districts of equal population. If the plaintiffs carry their burden, the state must then prove that each significant variance between districts was necessary to achieve some legitimate state objective. More flexibility for state and local districts (10 percent is presumptively constitutional).

Indicia of gerrymandering…quantitative measures related to whether one party would win more seats with a certain percentage of votes than another party would win if it had won the same percentage of votes.

There are measures related to responsiveness, whether one party would win more seats with a 10 percent swing in their favor than another party would win with a 10 percent swing in their favor. (Mention PGP and Planscore)

Split communities

No incumbents paired or only one party’s incumbents

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What are Oregon’s �redistricting state criteria?

Federal law (see legislative redistricting website)
The Oregon Constitution

state legislative deadlines
Oregon Supreme Court jurisdiction

Oregon Revised Statutes (ORS) 188.010

Equal population
Contiguous
Nesting
Geographic and political boundaries
“Communities of common interest”
Be connected by transportation links

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How are criteria used?

Not rank-ordered�but federal law trumps state criteria
May not purposefully favor �“any political party, incumbent legislator or other person”
Are legislators obeying the law?

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Communities of Common Interest (COCI)

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Not defined in Oregon law
Opens the door for public input
Common definition of COCI= A neighborhood or area whose residents have shared culture, history, and policy concerns, �and so would benefit from being represented in the same district.
Testify about COCI: Your view of your community using three Cs

CULTURE
CONCERNS
COUNT

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What’s Happening:

(some of what we know)

Thursday, September 2: Last day to apply to be a commissioner on Secretary of State’s contingent advisory commission

Friday, September 3, 8 am: legislature released proposed districts

(Mon, September 6: Labor Day)

Tuesday, September 7, 5 pm: proposed maps by members of the public to legislature via ESRI

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[Any Qs on Dan’s segment?]

Dan’s just laid out the basic, key information on what redistricting is. Now, what’s happening next in the redistricting process?

Well, if you’re interested in serving on an advisory redistricting commission that may, or may not, be activated, you should be working on your application, due in less than 8 days (Thursday, September 2), to the SOS. The link to this will be dropped into the chat. Who knows? The legislature may not get its state legislative redistricting job done by its deadline of September 27. You might get picked -- but check out the very demanding and required schedule of hearings around the state (or virtually) and meetings you’d be required to participate in a period of 14 days.

Then, the Big Kickoff -- the legislature releases its draft maps -- all 96 of them -- at an 8 am hearing the next day, Friday, September 3. How close will these be to the criteria Dan described to you? Will these maps suggest that the linedrawers considered non-criteria, like compactness or partisan competitiveness, which are NOT Oregon standards for redistricting? Most importantly, where will YOU land in the new maps? Will you be in the appropriate community of common interest? School district? City? County? Valley? If you’re on the coastside, will you be linked up with the Willamette Valley, or with eastern Oregon? And does that district make sense to you?

One business day later, on Tuesday, September 7, if you drew any congressional or state legislative maps you want the Legislature to consider, you have to submit it, through ESRI, by 5 pm on the 7th. Norman will be telling you about that process. If you truly want to submit one or more maps, do not wait until the last minut -- use the final checklist on the legislature’s redistricting website, and submit you map or maps early. If there’s some probablem with any of them, you MAY get the chance to fix them and resubmit them before the deadline.

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What’s Happening: �(more of what we know)

Sept 8-10, 13: Three-hour legislative public hearings.

Testify by video or phone and/or submit written testimony (no in-person testimony)

CD 1: Wed., Sept. 8, 8 am; Th., Sept. 9, 5:30 pm

CD 2: Wed., Sept. 8, 1 pm; Fri., Sept. 10, 8 am

CD 3: Wed., Sept. 8, 5:30 pm; Fri., Sept. 10, 1 pm

CD 4: Th., Sept. 9, 8 am, Fri., Sept. 10, 5:30 pm

CD 5: Th, Sept. 9, 1 pm, Mon., Sept. 13, 8 am

All residents: Mon., Sept. 13, 1, 5:30 pm

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Next come the last public hearings. The date and times for these 36 hours of hearings over four days are listed on the legislature’s redistricting website, LWVOR’s website, and are in these slides, which will be available following this presentation. You will be able to testify at any one of four hearings -- two for your congressional district, and two all-comers hearings on the afternoon or evening of the 13th. But you must register before the hearing at which you want to speak.

The agendas for each hearing, released just yesterday afternoon, state in part: “Please focus your comments on the proposed maps that have been developed by the two redistricting committees.” -- that is, the maps of the 96 districts they released as little two business days before.

Your oral comments will likely be limited to three minutes -- possibly two minutes, so plan ahead to make the points you want the legislators to know. It’s very unlikely you’ll be asked any questions; there simply isn’t time, with likely hundreds of people testifying. But remember -- your written submission is unlimited in length, AND you can submit a written statement, as well as make one by video or phone.

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What’s Happening:

(most of what we know)

Sept 27: Oregon Supreme Court (OSC) deadline for legislature to pass and governor to sign bills for all redistricted districts

Sept 28: If legislature fails to redistrict: Five-judge panel appt’d for CDs, which recommends districts to OSC; Oct. 18: Secretary of State must file state legislative redistricting plan with OSC; Fall 2021: judges draw CDs;

Feb 7, 2022: Redistricting must be completed

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If the legislature passed the two redistricting bills, and the Governor signs them by the 27th, the next steps are more limited: court challenges in the fall and winter. We don’t have space here to put all the steps and deadlines, but there are more.

If the legislature doesn’t meet its Sept 27 deadline, then the redistricting process forks: redistricting of state legislative districts falls to Shemia Fagan, the SOS, who has until mid-October to send proposed districts to the OR Supreme Court. This is where she could use her advisory commission. She has not said that she will accept the recommendations of the commission, but she may. The OSC can, or may not, accept the districts drawn by the SOS. More step, deadlines, and reviews will follow.

Judges appointed by the OSC would recommend CDs to the OSC, with additional steps, deadlines, and reviews.

In any event, at the latest, all redistricting must be finally approved by the OSC by February 7, 2022.

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What’s Next�(but we don’t know when)

When and whether the legislature will release subsequent maps after September 3 release

Whether the Secretary of State and the courts will get involved (Oct 2021-Feb 2022)

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What are the dynamics now?

Due to COVID-19, the time period between now and Sept 27 is extremely compressed, for the legislature to analyze data, produce and adopt final maps, and have the Governor approve�

The partisan politics: Governor, US Congress, State Senate, State House, Secretary of State

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Here’s the kicker: One party, the Democratic Party, controls ALL the levers of power in this process this year. The majority party has strong majorities in both the state House and State Senate. The governor, who must sign the redistricting bills, is a member of the same party. If the legislature fails to pass legislative redistricting plans, the default decision maker is another elected member of the same party -- the Secretary of State. If congressional districting falls to the courts, all of the members of the court of last resort -- the OSC, a nonpartisan body -- were appointed by Democratic governors.

Want to suggest your own, fair, neutral, maybe nonpartisan districts, to the legislature? Norman will now tell you how you can do exactly that -- but you don’t have much time! Norman?

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ESRI

What is ESRI?

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Unusual Districts: CD 1

The “hunched monster” or “kidney” district: �urban, suburban, coastal, rural areas �(comparable state legislative districts)

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Oregon Senate District 30

The “thumbs up” district – �from the Columbia River to the California border

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State House District 22

This may, or may not, be�a “good” district

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The current Oregon congressional districts

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A new eastern CD ...

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ESRI

How do you access ESRI?

https://oregon-redistricting.esriemcs.com/redistricting

How do you use it? → Training videos! Manual!

Is it hard?

Are there other redistricting programs/systems?

Do you have to submit a complete state plan through ESRI if you want it considered? YES.

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How to Engage

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How To Engage - 1

Apply by September 2 for the Secretary of State’s conditional advisory redistricting commission

Draft and submit your/your organization’s own map/s via ESRI by September 7

Testify at the September 8-13 hearings

By video or phone, AND/OR written testimony
Suggest improvements in the legislature’s September 3 draft maps in your testimony, or in other engagement efforts

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You have the next 20 days to maximize your engagement in this process. We’ve already mentioned some of these possible action items.

SOS’s contingent advisory commission: You have eight days to apply. The link is is the slide. Send a request for the slides to the League of Women Voters of Oregon -- info@lwvor.org -- and we’ll shoot you a set of the slides.

If you’re going to submit maps, you have less than two weeks to draw and submit them. Use the Map Submission Checklist on legislature’s redistricting website. Remember that you must submit maps, through ESRI (linked on the slide) for an entire subset of districts: all the Congressional Districts, all the State Senate Districts, AND/OR all the House districts. You can’t just submit a single map saying “This is how I think Eugene should be districted.”

Testify

Two days ago, eliminated in-person hrgs, but you can testify via video or phone at at least one of four hearings (two are limited to your CD)

By video or phone at any hearing

In writing by (at this writing) 5:29 pm on Tu, Sept 14 -- can submit your written etsimony by mail or electronically up to 24 hrs after a hrg starts

LRW has suggestions and directions on making how to testify orally, by video, and in writing

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How To Engage - 2

Contact your legislators personally

Attend a town hall, send an email or letter, make phone calls

Post on social media to encourage others to get involved
Submit letters to the editor, opinion pieces
Consider alternative methods to redraw districts (e.g., IP 16, sponsored by People Not Politicians)

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Redistricting Resources

Legislature: www.oregonlegislature.gov/Redistricting

Hearing schedule

Current, historic, and proposed (when released) district maps

Legal criteria for drawing districts

ESRI

Other resources: Redistricting Report Card; redistricting vehicles (for example, Maptitude, Districtr, Dave’s Redistricting)

LWVOR’s redistricting site:

https://www.lwvor.org/redistricting-in-oregon

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QUESTIONS?

THANK YOU!

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That’s it -- thanks for your participation, and for staying with us. That concludes our formal presentation. We’ll be around for up to 30 more minutes, answering any remaining Qs. Happy redistricting!

“Primer questions”:

[Norman] At the September special legislative session, could the minority party walk out, to prevent a quorum, and thus the passage of the redistricting bills, as they have in the past? [Yes.]

[Dan:] How unusual is OR’s position of having the Ds in complete control, vs. the states with the Rs in complete control, thereby creating the possibility of partisan gerrymandering?

[Norman] Are the redistricting bills subject to a referendum?

[Norman] I signed a petition last year to create a independent redistricting commission for OR. What happened to that?

Could the Governor veto the redistricting bills?