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Pender County Schools

2023-24 LAND USE STUDY AND MEMBERSHIP FORECAST REPORT

APRIL 9, 2024

MICHAEL MILLER, NUMERIX LLC

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Overview

  • Methodology and Data
  • GIS Analysis and Residential Development
  • 2023-24 Membership Forecast
  • Appendix

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Methodology

The Numerix forecast process combines analysis of historical trends with GIS (Geographic Information Systems) analysis of potential growth from residential developments.

  • Based on cohort-survival techniques
  • Tracking membership through feeder system
  • GIS database of residential developments, school boundaries, parcels and other relevant data

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Data: Resident Live Births

Pender County Resident Live Births (RLB) have seen an average increase of 1.03% per year for 2014 – 2022.

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Data: Historic Membership

For 2018-19 – 2023-24, the Month-2 K-13 Average Daily Membership (ADM) has increased by an average of 335 students (3.49%) per year.

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2023-24 K-13 Month2 ADM = 10,829

2023-24 PreK + EC: 298

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Data: Historic Membership

  • 2023-24 ADM reports an increase of 110 K-13 students over 2022-23
  • Average Cohort Survival Ratios (CSR) for grades K-13 from 2019-20 through 2023-24 indicate in-migration into PCS (average CSR for 2020-21 was 0.99)
    • Overall average CSR for grades 1-13: 1.04
    • Average CSR for RLB > Grade K: 1.13
  • Impact from COVID-19 was not as great as experienced in many districts served by Numerix (2.35% decrease from 2019-20)
  • From 2018-19 to 2023-24, average annual growth by grade:

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K

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12/13

K-13

3.55%

4.60%

5.34%

5.15%

5.81%

2.61%

1.95%

4.69%

2.94%

5.36%

3.99%

4.42%

0.16%

3.49%

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GIS Analysis

The Numerix forecast model combines historical demographic trends with GIS data to estimate growth trends of existing and anticipated residential developments. Numerix GIS analysis focuses on these areas:

  • Identifying/classifying residential developments,
  • Quantifying student impact from existing residential developments and
  • Estimating student impact from anticipated developments.

Thanks to Pender County Planning Dept and GIS Dept, Town of Burgaw, Town of Surf City, Town of Topsail Beach.

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Residential Development

Over 600 developments of various types are identified (including multiple phases/sections and some commercial developments): single-family subdivisions and multi-family developments. Tracked developments are investigated for these attributes (dependent on data limitations):

  • Number of PCS students (based on the 2023-24 student geocode)
  • Residential Type
  • Number of developed parcels or units
  • Total number of existing parcels or units

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Residential Development

GIS analysis indicates a county-wide average Student Generating Potential (SGP) of:

  • 0.40 students per developed address point, or
  • 0.30 students per developed residential acre.

Across elementary attendance areas, SGP (by developed acre) ranges from 1.00 to 0.13

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2023-24 PCS Membership Forecast

  • Forecast Assumptions
  • 2023-24 Membership Forecasts
    • By Level
    • By High School Area

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Forecast Assumptions

  • Numerix Cohort-Feeder Forecast Model
  • County Resident Live Births projected to increase at 2.76% per year – 2023 through 2028
  • Positive development/growth trends

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Forecast Assumptions

  • Forecast models are built from historic trends and future development potentials
  • The 2023-24 Membership Forecast is built on historic Month-2 Average Daily Membership (ADM) for 2018-19 – 2023-24 from NC DPI
  • Includes impact from existing and anticipated residential developments
  • Forecast is intended for medium- to long-range planning (3-10 years)
  • “Next-year” short-range membership forecasts are best aligned with current/on-going student data captures

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2023-24 PCS Membership Forecast by Level

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2022-23 PCS Membership Forecast by Area

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Forecast Summary: Growth

  • Average annual K-13 growth: 460 over the next ten years
  • Average annual K-13 growth rate: 3.60% over the next ten years
  • Month-2 K-13 Average Daily Membership by level *:

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Level

2023-24

2028-29

2033-34

Elementary (K-5)

4840

5457

6374

Middle (6-8)

2483

3281

3720

High (9-13)

3506

4283

5333

* PreK + EC remains constant throughout forecast at 298

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Forecast Summary: Utilization

The building capacities used in the forecast table were supplied by PCS. Mobile classrooms are not included.

The forecast tables show both historic membership – from 2018-19 through 2023-24 – and forecast membership – from 2024-25 through 2033-3.

Schools in the Heidi Trask and Pender high school areas are generally under 90% utilization for several years. Schools in the Topsail area are experiencing crowding and will continue to see growth through the forecast window. Topsail schools are currently at 118% utilization and will see utilizations over 150% in five years. The new K-8 school will relieve some of the crowding in this area, but further relief is needed if these growth trends continue.

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Additional Information

The 2023-24 Membership Forecast Report (final version: 2/8/2024) provides additional data and detail, including general population estimates and forecasts in the Appendix.

All Forecast tables are available as separate documents.

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Questions/Discussion

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Appendix

  • Data Sources
  • Off-Target Analysis
  • About Numerix LLC

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Data Sources

  • PCS: 2023-24 PCS student geocode – Approximate 99% match rate
  • NC DPI: Month-2 K-13 Average Daily Membership – 2018-19 through 2023-24
  • PCS: 2023-24 PreK and EC Membership
  • NC State Center for Health Statistics: Pender County Resident Live Births for 2014 through 2022
  • PCS: Current building capacities; mobile classrooms are not included.
  • PCS: TIMS school attendance areas, 2023-24
  • Pender County GIS: Tax parcels, schools, streets, address points and other features. Data download: December 2023.
  • Pender County Planning: Development plans, various
  • Town of Surf City: Building Permit Summary, 2020 through 2022.
  • Town of Burgaw: 2030 Future Land Use Map
  • Town of Topsail Beach: 2015 CAMA Core Land Use Plan

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Off-Target Analysis

  • The 2015-16 OREd (ITRE/NCSU) Membership Forecast was presented to the PCS Board of Education on May 10, 2016
  • The forecast is based on NC DPI Month-1 K-13 ADM (* 2018-19 is Month-2 ADM)

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M-1 ADM

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

Forecast

8932

9151

9311

9434

9588

9787

9994

10314

10592

Actual

8932

9226

9148

9154*

9513

9282

9916

10724

10791

Error

n/a

75

-163

-280

-75

-505

-78

410

199

% error

n/a

0.81%

-1.78%

-3.06%

-0.79%

-5.44%

-0.79%

3.82%

1.84%

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Numerix LLC

Numerix LLC – GIS-based Demographics and Planning Solutions for Schools

    • Membership forecasts
    • GIS analysis
    • Mathematical modeling
    • Demographic analysis
    • 20 years of school planning experience in 50 districts in SC, NC and VA
  • Michael Miller – Founder and Managing Member, Numerix LLC
    • Since 2016: Numerix LLC, Charleston SC
    • 2003 – 2016: Operations Research and Education Laboratory, ITRE @ NCSU Centennial Campus

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