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Operational Planning for Natural Hazard Management

in a Period of Escalating Climate Crisis

ATHENS 2024

Dr. EFTHYMIS LEKKAS

PROFESSOR

Dynamic Tectonics, Applied Geology &Natural Disaster Management

PRESIDENT

Earthquake Planning & Protection Organization

PRESIDENT

Department of Geology and Geoenvironment

DIRECTOR

POST GRATUATE PROGRAM «Environmental, Disaster & Crisis Management Strategies»

NATIONAL & KAPODISTRIAN UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS

POST GRADUATE PROGRAM

ENVIRONMENTAL, DISASTER AND CRISES MANAGEMENT

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NATIONAL & KAPODISTRIAN UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS

POST GRADUATE PROGRAM

ENVIRONMENTAL, DISASTER AND CRISES MANAGEMENT

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NATIONAL & KAPODISTRIAN UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS

POST GRADUATE PROGRAM

ENVIRONMENTAL, DISASTER AND CRISES MANAGEMENT

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ENVIRONMENTAL, DISASTER AND CRISES MANAGEMENT

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Το νέο Παγκόσμιο Πλαίσιο του OHE για τη Μείωση Κινδύνου Καταστροφής 2015-2030 του Sendai

(Japan 2015)

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Objective of the Sendai Framework

The significant reduction of disaster risk and losses in human lives, health, as well as economic, physical, social, and environmental assets of individuals, businesses, and countries.

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SENDAI FRAMEWORK

Governments reaffirm their commitment to addressing disaster risk reduction and building resilience to disasters with a renewed sense of urgency within the framework of sustainable development.

MITIGATION ADAPTATION RESILIENCE

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GLOBAL GOALS by 2030

  • Drastic reduction in human casualties, the number of affected individuals, damage to critical infrastructure, and the disruption of essential services such as healthcare, education, and economic losses.
  • By 2020, the number of countries with a disaster risk reduction strategy at the local and national levels should be increased.
  • Promote international cooperation to reduce disaster risk in developing countries through adequate and sustainable support for them to implement the Action Framework.
  • Increase the availability of multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster-related information

  • Drastic reduction in human casualties, the number of affected individuals, damage to critical infrastructure, and the disruption of essential services such as healthcare, education, and economic losses.
  • By 2020, the number of countries with a disaster risk reduction strategy at the local and national levels should be increased.
  • Promote international cooperation to reduce disaster risk in developing countries through adequate and sustainable support for them to implement the Action Framework.
  • Increase the availability of multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster-related information

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THE CLIMATE CRISIS

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Η Ευρώπη, κατά την κορύφωση της τελευταίας παγετώδους εποχής (πριν 18.000 χρόνια)

ΜΕΤΑΤΟΠΙΣΕΙΣ ΑΚΤΟΓΡΑΜΜΩΝ ΣΑΡΩΝΙΚΟΥ

18.000 ΒΡ : Στάθμη θάλασσας ≅ 125 m χαμηλότερα

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THESSALY

Impact of Medicane “IANOS” (September 2020)

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The flooded areas in the Thessalian Plain on September 20, 2020, at 12:20 (local time).

The total area of the flooded region amounts to 221.46 km².

Cloud cover in the area during the mapping affects the accuracy of the flood extent determination.

In the Sentinel-2 L2A satellite image, the Normalized Difference Water Index difference (dNDWI) was used.

Οι πλημμυρισμένες περιοχές στη Θεσσαλική πεδιάδα στις 20 Σεπτεμβρίου 2020 στις 12:20 (τοπική ώρα).

Το συνολικό εμβαδόν της πλημμυρισμένης περιοχής ανέρχεται σε 221,46 km2.

Η νεφοκάλυψη στην περιοχή κατά τη διάρκεια της αποτύπωσης επιδρά στην ακρίβεια του προσδιορισμού της πλημμυρισμένης περιοχής.

Στη δορυφορική φωτογραφία Sentinel-2 L2A χρησιμοποιήθηκε o κανονικοποιημένος δείκτης υγρασία (Normalized Difference Water Index difference – dNDWI).

TELESCOPIC OBSERVATION – SATELLITE MONITORING

20/9/2020

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Flood Influence Degree Map from River Flows (T=1,000 years), 2017

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The Early September 2023 Daniel Storm In Thessaly Region

(Central Greece)

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IMPACT OF FLOODS ON LIVESTOCK�ASSESSMENT OF FLOOD IMPACT AT FARMING HUSBANDRY

Map of Thessaly water district (EL08) that depicts the main farming husbandry units together with the maximum flood extend and the area that is affected (orange border).

Source: Copernicus EMS - On Demand Mapping, Ministry of Environment and Energy.

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INTERNATIONAL MISSIONS

OF THE NATIONAL AND KAPODISTRIAN UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS

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New Parameters – New Challenges in �Risk and Crisis Management

Α. Complexity – Multifaceted Nature of Risks, Crises, and Disasters

B. Emergence of New Forms of Risks, Crises, and Disasters

C. Increase in Extreme Events

D. Disasters Occurring During Ongoing Crises and Disasters

E. Scale of Disasters – Global Risks and Crises

F. Disasters and Crises in New and Specialized Geographic Areas

G. Environmental Impacts of Disasters and Crises

H. Correlation Between Disasters and Geopolitical Crises

NEW OPERATIONAL PLANNING AT

LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND NATIONAL LEVELS

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Hazards (H) x Vulnerability (V) / Capacity (C) = Risk (R)

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RISK AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT

PREVENTION – PREPAREDNESS

(PRE-DISASTER STAGE)

RESPONSE – INTERVENTION

(CO-DISASTER STAGE)

RECOVERY – RESTORATION

(POST-DISASTER STAGE)

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Prof. Efthymios Lekkas

Dr. Spyridon Mavroulis

The late October 2024�Valencia (Spain) extreme weather events and floods

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CATCHMENTS, RIVERS AND EPHEMERAL STREAMS IN THE FLOOD-AFFECTED AREA�The Júcar and Turia Basins

The territory of the Júcar River Basin District is characterized by a mesozoic cover which was formed in the formation period of the Alpes. Therefore, Neogene formations is a special characteristic in this region. The soil is sub-classified into Fluvisol, Cambrisol, Regosol, Acrisol, Gypsisol, Leptosol, and Cacisol.

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Valencia city historical map with walls and Turia River (1832)

DEVELOPMENT OF VALENCIA CITY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TURIA RIVER

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HISTORICAL AND RECENT FLOODS IN THE VALENCIA PROVINCE

The 1957 Turia Flood

Views of roads in Valencia City affected by the 1957 flood.

Photos are courtesy of Juan Antonio Soler Aces.

Available online: https://carolineangus.com/2013/10/14/la-riua-october-14-1957-the-flood-that-changed-valencia-forever/

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THE OCTOBER 2024 VALENCIA FLOODS�Atmospheric Conditions contributing to the Disaster

29.10.2024 06h UTC

29.10.2024 14h UTC

29.10.2024 21h UTC

30.10.2024 17h UTC

Related screenshots of the ΑΕΜΕΤ forecast for 29-30.10.2024

The lightning map shows the greatest activity in the southeast of the Iberian peninsula, with a northward movement in the Levante area throughout early October 29

Source: https://x.com/AEMET_Esp/status/1851148714145964272

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Erosion heavily affected buildings founded close to the river banks in Chiva town. Many of them were deemed to be demolished due to the exposure of their foundations after flooding. Photos credit: Prof. E. Lekkas and S. Mavroulis

FLOOD IMPACT ON BUILDINGS�Erosion and Undercutting of River Banks and Collapse of Buildings

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FLOOD IMPACT ON BUILDINGS�Erosion and Undercutting of River Banks and Collapse of Buildings

Erosion and undercutting of the river banks and structural and non-structural damage to recently constructed buildings in Paiporta town. In this area, damage was also observed in several infrastructure comprising roads, bridges and railways.

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FLOOD IMPACT ON CARS AND RECOVERY ACTIONS �Removing Cars Buried by Flood Deposits

Typical views of totally destroyed cars found partially or totally buried in thick flood deposits in the Rambla del Poyo riverbed. Photos credit: Prof. E. Lekkas and Dr. S. Mavroulis

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CATCHMENTS, RIVERS AND EPHEMERAL STREAMS IN THE FLOOD-AFFECTED AREA�The Rambla del Poyo Catchment

Location of Rambla del Poyo catchment (Salazar-Galán et al., 2021)

The catchment of the ephemeral stream Rambla den Poyo in the eastern part of the Iberian Peninsula and the branches of its drainage system. Their distribution reveals that this is a strongly asymmetrical basin with the main branch developing in very close proximity to the northern watershed, with an absence of branches north of the main stream and a long length of branches south of it.

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USE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR MONITORING FLOOD EXTENT �Valencia city and L’ Albufera coastal wetlands before and after flooding

October 25, 2022

October 30, 2024

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USE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR MONITORING FLOOD EXTENT �Overview of Valencia urban area before and after flooding

October 18, 2024

October 31, 2024

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USE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR MONITORING FLOOD EXTENT �Overview of water treatment plant and traffic jam on v30 highway in Valencia

October 18, 2024

October 31, 2024

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USE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR MONITORING FLOOD EXTENT �Overview of cv33 highway in Valencia

October 18, 2024

October 31, 2024

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These images come from a tunnel in the main artery that crosses Alfafar and Benetússer districts. Firefighters from Malaga, in their attempt to reopen this section of the road network, pumped out the accumulated floodwater, which was about 7 meters deep. After pumping, they were confronted with a pile of about 30 cars, within which many victims were found and recovered. Source: videos from Malaga firefighters.

FLOOD IMPACT ON CARS AND RECOVERY ACTIONS�Removing Cars Accumulated in Underpasses

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EMERGENCY RESPONSE ACTIONS�Contribution of the Armed Forces and the UME to cleaning flood debris

Available online: https://x.com/Defensagob

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The Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) of the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism.�Available online: https://x.com/eu_echo/status/1853551473797292236

EMERGENCY MAPPING AND RESPONSE COORDINATION

Based on the impact overview of the DG ECHO Daily flash and CENEM the 2024 Valencia floods caused:

  • 212 fatalities
  • > 235 missing people
  • 36115 rescued people
  • 4500 affected buildings
  • > 50 affected roads

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DISCUSSION – CONCLUSIONS

The situation that prevailed in the Turia riverbed from the afternoon of 29 October (17:53, local time) to 30 October (16:00, local time), almost 24 hours later, is illustrated in the three snap shots. The Touria River reached the limits of overflowing next to the V-30 motorway, which runs around the southern part of Valencia, but the city north of it remained intact.

The evolution of the late October 2024 flood in Valencia wider area is well illustrated in the following maps, which summarize the details of the disaster.

Available online:

https://x.com/BamboleaMe/status/1851515853243552114

https://x.com/BamboleaMe/status/1851657808963412163

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Operational Planning for Natural Hazard Management

in a Period of Escalating Climate Crisis

ATHENS 2024

Dr. EFTHYMIS LEKKAS

PROFESSOR

Dynamic Tectonics, Applied Geology &Natural Disaster Management

PRESIDENT

Earthquake Planning & Protection Organization

PRESIDENT

Department of Geology and Geoenvironment

DIRECTOR

POST GRATUATE PROGRAM «Environmental, Disaster & Crisis Management Strategies»

NATIONAL & KAPODISTRIAN UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS

POST GRADUATE PROGRAM

ENVIRONMENTAL, DISASTER AND CRISES MANAGEMENT