Confronting Climate Gridlock

Prof. Daniel Cohan

Department of Civil and

Environmental Engineering

Rice University

Undeniable Warming

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http://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2022/

Before Paris Agreement: >3.5°C warming expected by 2100*

Climate Action Tracker

*Plus additional warming until net-zero is reached

Now: Implemented policies would result in 2.2-3.5°C warming

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IPCC 2023, AR6 Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers

Changes by degree

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Hottest-day temperature

Soil moisture

Wettest-day precipitation

1.5°C

2°C

3°C

4°C

IPCC 2023, AR6 Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers

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IPCC 2023, AR6 Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers

2°C

3°C

2°C

3°C

Confronting Climate Gridlock:�Diplomacy, Technology and Policy

Diplomacy

Technology

Policy

Book draws from >100 interviews with diplomats, scholars, innovators, etc.

How the Keys Interact to�Unlock Climate Gridlock

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Technology

Diplomacy

Policy

Enables more ambitious policy

“Regulation breeds innovation”

Enables others to do more

Fosters collaboration

Provides clout and credibility

Impels and leverages action

The Technology Key�Pillars of Clean Energy and other priorities

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Electrification and Clean Fuels

Pillars reinforce each other

Nature

Image link

Minimizes resource needs

Makes electrification worthwhile

Electric cars & heat pumps

Helps or hurts?

Powers CO₂ removal and hydrogen production

President Biden’s Net-Zero Strategy

White House, November 2021, The Long-Term Strategy of the United States, Pathways to Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050

Clean Electricity

Electrification and low-C fuels

Baseline Emissions

Net-Zero

Efficiency

Other GHGs

Land

Sink

CO₂ Removal

Energy transitions historically have been slow

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https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=26912

Wood Era

Coal Era

Oil and Gas Era

Past energy transitions took 50+ years. Can we decarbonize the economy by 2050?

S curves of technology adoption

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Adoption Rates in U.S. Households

NREL Electrification Futures Study

Transition from horses to cars in just 13 years

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1900

1913

https://www.businessinsider.com/5th-ave-1900-vs-1913-2011-3

2022: California announces ban on gasoline cars in 13 years

Solar became cheap via learning-by-doing

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Slides from Ramez Naam: https://rameznaam.com/2020/05/14/solars-future-is-insanely-cheap-2020/

Pushes and pulls can drive mutually reinforcing progress

Deployments

Created with Donald Soward, Rice University

Cost

Technology Push

Demand Pull

Research, development, and demonstration

Procurement, incentives, regulations, emissions taxes, voluntary actions

Questions??

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