1 of 21

Demographic Report 2021/22

Thorndale

Independent

School

District

2 of 21

2

Yellow Box = Highest grade per year

Green Box = Second highest grade per year

Thorndale ISD enrollment increased by 23 students this fall, a continuation of a three year positive enrollment trend the District has experienced despite COVID impacts
The district’s highest cohorts were 1^st, 3^rd, and 7^th grades

Enrollment History

Year (Oct)	EE	PK	K	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th	Total	Total Growth	% Growth
2017/18	3	14	28	30	40	38	28	34	36	40	64	54	54	47	57	567
2018/19	6	18	24	30	33	39	39	27	32	38	45	73	48	57	48	557	-10	-1.8%
2019/20	5	14	37	34	29	34	40	39	32	39	41	52	65	48	49	558	1	0.2%
2020/21	0	15	31	41	36	37	34	40	43	35	44	49	54	66	51	576	18	3.2%
2021/22	0	17	30	37	37	45	42	38	47	56	37	48	46	57	62	599	23	4.0%

	EE	PK	K	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th	Elem	MS	High
3 Year Avg.	n/a	0.994	1.116	1.239	0.976	1.185	1.054	1.039	1.154	1.205	1.088	1.147	0.956	1.024	0.954	1.102	1.149	1.020
2018/19	2.000	1.286	0.857	1.071	1.100	0.975	1.026	0.964	0.941	1.056	1.125	1.141	0.889	1.056	1.021	0.999	1.041	1.027
2019/20	0.833	0.778	1.542	1.417	0.967	1.030	1.026	1.000	1.185	1.219	1.079	1.156	0.890	1.000	0.860	1.163	1.161	0.976
2020/21	n/a	1.071	0.838	1.108	1.059	1.276	1.000	1.000	1.103	1.094	1.128	1.195	1.038	1.015	1.063	1.047	1.108	1.078
2021/22	n/a	1.133	0.968	1.194	0.902	1.250	1.135	1.118	1.175	1.302	1.057	1.091	0.939	1.056	0.939	1.094	1.178	1.006

3 of 21

Local Economic Conditions

3

4 of 21

Local Economic Update - Austin MSA

4

Samsung

Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. has officially pledged to invest at least $17 billion into a chipmaking plant in Taylor. The company promises to create at least 2,000 direct jobs, at least 6,500 construction jobs and a 6-million-square-foot factory on roughly 1,200 acres between Taylor and Hutto. The factory will produce the South Korea-based company’s most advanced computer chips yet.

Tesla

Tesla Inc. also relocated its headquarters to the Austin area, where its $1.1 billion electric vehicle manufacturing facility has developed at breakneck speed. Musk's hiring goals also continue to swell from the originally promised 5,000 positions. He recently said that the Austin-area factory will grow to a $10 billion-plus investment "over time" that will create at least 20,000 direct jobs and 100,000 indirect jobs.

5 of 21

Local Economic Update - Milam County

5

American Statesman Glove Company

Milam County Commissioners voted unanimously in November 2021 to create a reinvestment zone and order a tax abatement agreement to help bring American Glove Company to the former Alcoa property outside of Rockdale.
The Company plans to build three large facilities to manufacture nitrile gloves
The new business would invest $775 million and could create 1,500 jobs for the area

Bitcoin Operations

Whinstone (RIOT) and Bitdeer currently operate two large bit coin mining/data centers at the former Alcoa site (now Sandow Lakes Ranch)
Approximately 200 people are currently employed at these facilities

6 of 21

State Enrollment Trends

6

Thorndale ISD enrollment has grown

by 32 students over the past five years

an increase of 5.6%

Region 13 enrollment has increased 2.4%

over the five year period, an increase of

8.905 students

7 of 21

District Demographic Snapshot

7

2020 District

Census Population

3,216

2,736

2010 Census

District Population

17.5%

2020 Total District Population

Below Age 18

711

705

2010 Census District

Population Below Age 18

0.1%

2020 District Household Size

2.61

2.60

2010 District Household Size

2020 District Households

1,234

17.1%

1,054

2010 District Households

0.01

8 of 21

8

Thorndale ISD Historical Home Sales

Thorndale ISD had 40 total home sales in 2021, a decrease of 32.2% from 2020 totals
New home sales in 2021 accounted for roughly 2-5% of the total home sales within the district

9 of 21

9

Thorndale ISD Home Price Analysis

The average home sale price in Thorndale ISD has risen 80% since 2010, an increase of approximately $134,800

	Average Sales Price
2010	$ 167,836
2011	$ 219,069
2012	$ 160,118
2013	$ 215,882
2014	$ 179,849
2015	$ 242,144
2016	$ 189,257
2017	$ 210,709
2018	$ 254,121
2019	$ 237,986
2020	$ 265,980
2021	$ 302,650

10 of 21

10

District Housing Overview

Thorndale ISD currently has one active subdivision containing 23 lots in Phase 1
~ 370 planned future SF lots in four separate subdivision developments

11 of 21

11

Residential Activity

El Camino Real Estates

Phase I - 23 lots total
Phase II to contain 15 – 18 homes
Potential Phase III – lot count TBD
Development has begun – 4 homes occupied in Phase 1 and all but one lot has been sold

12 of 21

12

Future Residential Activity

Country Meadows Estates II

Phase I complete with approximately 35 – 40 lots
88 homes planned for Phase II
Development expected to break ground within next month; 15 – 20 lots already spoken for

13 of 21

13

Future Residential Activity

MRI Parcel – Name TBD

200 total lots
Infrastructure work currently underway
Developer anticipates construction beginning by end of year

14 of 21

14

Future Residential Activity

Future Sub - Name TBD

35 total lots on approximately 40 acres
Plot is situated roughly 5 miles north of Thorndale on FM 486
Timing not determined

15 of 21

15

Student Distribution Analysis

There are 91 students that currently reside outside the district
This represents roughly 15.1% of the total student population
458 students, or 76.2% of the total student population resides within the Thorndale city limits

16 of 21

TEA Transfer Report

16

*Totals include additional districts due to TEA rounding rules

Transfers In From:	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	5 Year Change
Milano ISD	5	0	0	0	0	0	-5
Rockdale ISD	49	53	44	49	55	57	8
Taylor ISD	9	0	0	0	0	0	-9
Thrall ISD	13	14	12	10	0	10	-3
Total Transfers In*	n/a	88	76	77	78	88	n/a

Transfers Out To:	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	5 Year Change
Taylor ISD	5	0	10	0	0	0	-5
Thrall	18	25	17	15	13	12	-6
Total Transfers Out*	n/a	40	39	39	36	29	n/a

17 of 21

Ten Year Forecast by Grade Level – Mid level 300 homes over 10 years

17

Yellow box = largest grade per year

Green box = second largest grade per year

Year (Oct)	EE	PK	K	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th	Total	Total Growth	% Growth
2017/18	3	14	28	30	40	38	28	34	36	40	64	54	54	47	57	567
2018/19	6	18	24	30	33	39	39	27	32	38	45	73	48	57	48	557	-10	-1.8%
2019/20	5	14	37	34	29	34	40	39	32	39	41	52	65	48	49	558	1	0.2%
2020/21	0	15	31	41	36	37	34	40	43	35	44	49	54	66	51	576	18	3.2%
2021/22	0	17	30	37	37	45	42	38	47	56	37	48	46	57	62	599	23	4.0%
2022/23	0	17	36	38	41	38	46	43	42	51	60	42	46	46	57	603	4	0.7%
2023/24	0	17	41	40	39	43	38	48	47	46	55	68	41	46	46	615	12	2.0%
2024/25	0	17	40	46	41	41	44	40	53	50	49	63	66	41	46	637	22	3.6%
2025/26	0	17	42	44	48	42	42	46	44	56	54	56	60	67	41	659	22	3.5%
2026/27	0	17	45	47	45	50	44	45	51	47	60	62	54	61	68	696	37	5.6%
2027/28	0	17	44	51	48	47	52	47	50	55	51	68	60	55	61	706	10	1.4%
2028/29	0	17	47	50	54	51	50	56	52	54	59	58	67	61	56	732	26	3.7%
2029/30	0	17	49	54	52	57	55	53	62	56	58	67	57	68	61	766	34	4.6%
2030/31	0	17	50	55	57	54	59	59	58	66	60	66	67	58	68	794	28	3.7%
2031/32	0	17	53	57	57	60	57	63	65	61	71	68	66	68	58	821	27	3.4%

18 of 21

Ten Year Forecast by Campus Level – Mid level

18

Yellow box = over capacity

Green box = within 10% of capacity

		Fall	ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Campus	Capacity	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	2028/29	2029/30	2030/31	2031/32
THORNDALE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL		246	259	266	269	281	293	306	325	337	351	364
ELEMENTARY TOTAL		246	259	266	269	281	293	306	325	337	351	364
Elementary Absolute Change		12	13	7	3	12	12	13	19	12	14	13
Elementary Percent Change		5.13%	5.28%	2.70%	1.13%	4.46%	4.27%	4.44%	6.21%	3.69%	4.15%	3.70%
THORNDALE MIDDLE SCHOOL		140	153	148	152	154	158	156	165	176	184	197
MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL		140	153	148	152	154	158	156	165	176	184	197
Middle School Absolute Change		18	13	-5	4	2	4	-2	9	11	8	13
Middle School Percent Change		14.75%	9.29%	-3.27%	2.70%	1.32%	2.60%	-1.27%	5.77%	6.67%	4.55%	7.07%
THORNDALE HIGH SCHOOL		213	191	201	216	224	245	244	242	253	259	260
HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL		213	191	201	216	224	245	244	242	253	259	260
High School Absolute Change		-7	-22	10	15	8	21	-1	-2	11	6	1
High School Percent Change		-3.18%	-10.33%	5.24%	7.46%	3.70%	9.38%	-0.41%	-0.82%	4.55%	2.37%	0.39%
DISTRICT TOTALS		599	603	615	637	659	696	706	732	766	794	821
District Absolute Change		23	4	12	22	22	37	10	26	34	28	27
District Percent Change		3.99%	0.67%	1.99%	3.58%	3.45%	5.61%	1.44%	3.68%	4.64%	3.66%	3.40%

19 of 21

Ten Year Forecast by Grade Level – High level 300 homes over 5-6 years

19

Yellow box = largest grade per year

Green box = second largest grade per year

Year (Oct)	EE	PK	K	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th	Total	Total Growth	% Growth
2017/18	3	14	28	30	40	38	28	34	36	40	64	54	54	47	57	567
2018/19	6	18	24	30	33	39	39	27	32	38	45	73	48	57	48	557	-10	-1.8%
2019/20	5	14	37	34	29	34	40	39	32	39	41	52	65	48	49	558	1	0.2%
2020/21	0	15	31	41	36	37	34	40	43	35	44	49	54	66	51	576	18	3.2%
2021/22	0	17	30	37	37	45	42	38	47	56	37	48	46	57	62	599	23	4.0%
2022/23	0	17	36	38	41	38	46	43	42	51	60	42	46	46	57	603	4	0.7%
2023/24	0	17	42	43	42	45	42	51	50	49	60	70	42	46	46	645	42	7.0%
2024/25	0	17	46	47	46	45	48	45	60	59	57	71	71	42	46	700	55	8.5%
2025/26	0	17	51	51	51	49	48	52	53	70	69	67	72	72	42	764	64	9.1%
2026/27	0	17	54	57	55	55	53	52	61	62	82	81	68	73	73	843	79	10.3%
2027/28	0	17	56	61	59	58	57	56	57	65	67	93	82	69	73	870	27	3.2%
2028/29	0	17	59	63	64	63	61	62	62	62	70	76	92	83	70	904	34	3.9%
2029/30	0	17	61	67	65	68	67	65	68	67	67	80	75	93	84	944	40	4.4%
2030/31	0	17	62	69	70	68	71	72	72	73	72	76	80	77	94	973	29	3.1%
2031/32	0	17	65	70	72	74	72	75	79	76	78	82	75	81	78	994	21	2.2%

20 of 21

Ten Year Forecast by Campus Level

20

Yellow box = over capacity

Green box = within 10% of capacity

		Fall	ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Campus	Capacity	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28	2028/29	2029/30	2030/31	2031/32
THORNDALE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL		246	259	282	294	319	343	364	389	410	429	445
ELEMENTARY TOTAL		246	259	282	294	319	343	364	389	410	429	445
Elementary Absolute Change		12	13	23	12	25	24	21	25	21	19	16
Elementary Percent Change		5.13%	5.28%	8.88%	4.26%	8.50%	7.52%	6.12%	6.87%	5.40%	4.63%	3.73%
THORNDALE MIDDLE SCHOOL		140	153	159	176	192	205	189	194	202	217	233
MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL		140	153	159	176	192	205	189	194	202	217	233
Middle School Absolute Change		18	13	6	17	16	13	-16	5	8	15	16
Middle School Percent Change		14.75%	9.29%	3.92%	10.69%	9.09%	6.77%	-7.80%	2.65%	4.12%	7.43%	7.37%
THORNDALE HIGH SCHOOL		213	191	204	230	253	295	317	321	332	327	316
HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL		213	191	204	230	253	295	317	321	332	327	316
High School Absolute Change		-7	-22	13	26	23	42	22	4	11	-5	-11
High School Percent Change		-3.18%	-10.33%	6.81%	12.75%	10.00%	16.60%	7.46%	1.26%	3.43%	-1.51%	-3.36%
DISTRICT TOTALS		599	603	645	700	764	843	870	904	944	973	994
District Absolute Change		23	4	42	55	64	79	27	34	40	29	21
District Percent Change		3.99%	0.67%	6.97%	8.53%	9.14%	10.34%	3.20%	3.91%	4.42%	3.07%	2.16%

21 of 21

Key Takeaways

21

Thorndale ISD enrollment increased 23 students this year as COVID-19 impacts diminished
Enrollment has slowly trended up since the 2017/18 school year, an increase of 32 students
The district has approximately 323 planned future lots, with construction expected to begin on first lots within next month
Thorndale ISD is forecasted to enroll approximately 700 students by 2026/27 and 800 by 2031/32