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FIELD CAMPAIGN BASICS

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FIGURING OUT THE “ESTIMATED” WIN #

STEP 1

Look at three similar past elections to figure out the average turnout. Using Blue County for a November 2022 race, look at: Nov 2018 – 66%, Nov 2014 – 45%, November 2010 – 61%. Average turnout is 57%.

STEP 2

To get the projected voter turnout number - multiply the current registration and the past average turnout: 150,000 current registered voters x 57% past average turnout = 85,500 projected voters in Nov 2022.

STEP 3

Winning in many elections = 50% + 1 of the turnout (round to 51%): with 85,500 projected voters x 51% = 42,751 is the Estimated WIN NUMBER

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TARGETING FOR PERSUASION AND/OR TURNOUT

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LIKELIHOOD TO TURN OUT TO VOTE

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HIGH

MEDIUM

LOW

LIKELIHOOD TO SUPPORT

HIGH

1

2

3

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MEDIUM

4

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5

6

LOW

7

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9

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METHODS OF VOTER CONTACT

  • Phone calls
  • Doorknocking
  • Organized Events
  • Leafletting
  • Online Organizing
  • Social Media
  • Mail
  • Paid Media – TV, Radio

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VOTER FILE DEMOGRAPHICS

  • Vote History
  • Gender
  • Age
  • Ethnicity
  • Language
  • Country of Origin
  • Address

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  • Address
  • Phone Numbers
  • E-Mail Address
  • Census Info
  • Income Level
  • Education Level
  • Commercial Data
  • Model Scores

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Voter files can be purchased from the county registrar’s office or through a list vendor like Political Data Inc. (PDI).

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TRACKING - QUALITATIVE AND �QUANTITATIVE EXAMPLES

Returned Ballots from Target Voters

Voter Response Statistics

# Phone/Walk Attempts and Contacts

Volunteer Recruitment and Turnout

QUANTITATIVE

Tough Questions from Voters and Responses

Neighborhood Walkability

What Messages are Working

Assessing Volunteer Capacity

QUALITATIVE

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A CAMPAIGN PLAN TIMELINE SHOULD INCLUDE:

  • Number of voters to contact and shifts needed to reach them – daily and weekly goals
  • Registration deadlines (in-person during early voting/Election Day)
  • Ballot drop
  • Planned election events – townhalls, house parties, debates, etc.
  • Mail drop dates
  • Early voting dates and locations

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