COP28: State of Play and Key Outcomes for SIDS

GLISPA

November 13, 2023

Spencer Thomas

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State of Play

• Science in IPCC AR6 is clear:
• 1.5^oC is still within reach but emissions must peak before 2025 and about halve by 2030 to reach 1.5^oC
• Extreme weather events globally have highlighted the urgency of increased ambition and accelerated action
• Geo-political landscape remains challenging:
• Political dynamics continue to be complex and volatile
• Significant economic challenges abound
• Geo-political relationships remain strained – e.g. USA and China, global conflicts.

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State of Play

• August: BRICS expanded its reach
• Forum of five major economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa
• Expanded by inviting six new members from January: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates
• Impact on SIDS in climate negotiations?
• September: G20 expanded but under-delivered on climate ambition
• G20 admits African Union as a permanent member
• G20 New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration – very weak language on fossil fuel phase-out
• Pathway to stronger outcome at COP28 on fossil fuel phase-out?

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State of Play

• Acute lack of political momentum on closing ambition and implementation gaps – inertia, vested interests and search for loopholes
• Outcomes of the intersessional meetings are testimony of entrenched vested interests
• Trust on finance remains low – US$100bn still not delivered.
• The required rapid decline of fossil fuel use remains politically charged
• Expect aggressive oil and gas industry participation at COP
• Attempts to reframe mitigation issues e.g. focus on phasing down fossil fuel emissions instead of phasing out fossil fuel production and use

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Interlinked Issues for SIDS

• The role of COP28 Presidency
• Fossil fuel lobby and abatement technologies vs decarbonization
• Global advocacy energized
• Climate related litigation abounds
• Legal opinions sought on climate impacts re loss and damage
• Liability and compensation issue- the elephant in the room
• Geo-political issues- another elephant
• Agenda fights – procedural delays in the negotiations

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Interlinked issues for SIDS

• The call for reform of the international finance architecture- Bridgetown Initiative
• Insurance sector reform agenda
• Multi Dimensional Vulnerability Index
• Replenishment of the GCF
• Launch of Global Biodiversity fund
• SDG implementation progress
• Fourth SIDS Conference upcoming
• Focus on just transition, equity and climate justice
• Advocacy by the UNSG

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SIDS Priority COP28 Outcomes

• SIDS are looking to deliver major outcomes on multiple fronts:
• Keeping 1.5 within reach–accelerated mitigation action in line with the science
• Complete the first GST as mandated with integrity
• Operationalise the L&D fund, funding arrangements and Santiago Network
• Complete the GGA framework
• Scaled up and improved access to finance
• Advance work on oceans, just transition and nature based solutions
• Preserve the special circumstances of SIDS as enshrined in the Convention and the Paris Agreement

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Final Reflections

• The shifting alliances and realignments can further marginalize SIDS
• SIDS priorities can be relegated down on the Presidency list
• SIDS will have reduced reliance on G77 and China
• Erosion of the special circumstances of SIDS particularly wrt access to grant-based finance
• Reduced focus on the science and the need for urgency and ambition
• Focus on abatement technologies rather than decarbonization
• Fossil fuel lobby influences the COP28 outcome
• Propensity to backslide and reinterpret decisions
• SIDS caught holding the bag again with unjust transition

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Thank you