1 of 9

COP28: State of Play and Key Outcomes for SIDS

GLISPA

November 13, 2023

Spencer Thomas

2 of 9

State of Play

  • Science in IPCC AR6 is clear:
    • 1.5oC is still within reach but emissions must peak before 2025 and about halve by 2030 to reach 1.5oC
  • Extreme weather events globally have highlighted the urgency of increased ambition and accelerated action
  • Geo-political landscape remains challenging:
    • Political dynamics continue to be complex and volatile
    • Significant economic challenges abound
    • Geo-political relationships remain strained – e.g. USA and China, global conflicts.

3 of 9

State of Play

  • August: BRICS expanded its reach
    • Forum of five major economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa
    • Expanded by inviting six new members from January: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates
    • Impact on SIDS in climate negotiations?
  • September: G20 expanded but under-delivered on climate ambition
    • G20 admits African Union as a permanent member
    • G20 New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration – very weak language on fossil fuel phase-out
    • Pathway to stronger outcome at COP28 on fossil fuel phase-out?

4 of 9

State of Play

  • Acute lack of political momentum on closing ambition and implementation gaps – inertia, vested interests and search for loopholes
  • Outcomes of the intersessional meetings are testimony of entrenched vested interests
  • Trust on finance remains low – US$100bn still not delivered.
  • The required rapid decline of fossil fuel use remains politically charged
  • Expect aggressive oil and gas industry participation at COP
  • Attempts to reframe mitigation issues e.g. focus on phasing down fossil fuel emissions instead of phasing out fossil fuel production and use

5 of 9

Interlinked Issues for SIDS

  • The role of COP28 Presidency
  • Fossil fuel lobby and abatement technologies vs decarbonization
  • Global advocacy energized
  • Climate related litigation abounds
  • Legal opinions sought on climate impacts re loss and damage
  • Liability and compensation issue- the elephant in the room
  • Geo-political issues- another elephant
  • Agenda fights – procedural delays in the negotiations

6 of 9

Interlinked issues for SIDS

  • The call for reform of the international finance architecture- Bridgetown Initiative
  • Insurance sector reform agenda
  • Multi Dimensional Vulnerability Index
  • Replenishment of the GCF
  • Launch of Global Biodiversity fund
  • SDG implementation progress
  • Fourth SIDS Conference upcoming
  • Focus on just transition, equity and climate justice
  • Advocacy by the UNSG

7 of 9

SIDS Priority COP28 Outcomes

  • SIDS are looking to deliver major outcomes on multiple fronts:
    • Keeping 1.5 within reach–accelerated mitigation action in line with the science
    • Complete the first GST as mandated with integrity
    • Operationalise the L&D fund, funding arrangements and Santiago Network
    • Complete the GGA framework
    • Scaled up and improved access to finance
    • Advance work on oceans, just transition and nature based solutions
    • Preserve the special circumstances of SIDS as enshrined in the Convention and the Paris Agreement

8 of 9

Final Reflections

  • The shifting alliances and realignments can further marginalize SIDS
  • SIDS priorities can be relegated down on the Presidency list
  • SIDS will have reduced reliance on G77 and China
  • Erosion of the special circumstances of SIDS particularly wrt access to grant-based finance
  • Reduced focus on the science and the need for urgency and ambition
  • Focus on abatement technologies rather than decarbonization
  • Fossil fuel lobby influences the COP28 outcome
  • Propensity to backslide and reinterpret decisions
  • SIDS caught holding the bag again with unjust transition

9 of 9

Thank you