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Recommendations Weekly Report

Week #46 2022 - Nov. 14th to Nov. 20th

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Presenting the recent changes over the past week:�Almanak changing swapping fees & trading liquidity on Bancor V3

  • This weekly report analyses the recommendations for swapping fees and on-chain trading liquidity provided by Almanak over the last 7 days.
  • These recommendations are only valid for Bancor v3 and affect the following pools: ETH, LINK, WBTC & DAI.

This update covers the following topics:

  1. TL;DR
  2. Trading liquidity changes
  3. Swapping fees changes
  4. Fees recommendation benchmarking
  5. Trading liquidity and fees cross-effects
  6. Protocol deficit/surplus (P&L)

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Reading tips:

💡Insight:

Provides concepts and definitions

�📈Trend:

Informs about Almanak ongoing approach

👀Observation:

Describes the weekly results from the charts

⚠️Warning

Alerts on an important limitation or need for parsimony

Note : Our future reports will also include an impact analysis of the recommendations on the other pools’ activity.

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TL;DR

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Main achievements

  • Almanak has started delivering daily recommendations of Swapping Fees and Trading Liquidity on Nov. 14th, 2022
  • Recommendations were successfully implemented by Bancor MSIG
  • Due to complex/costly process of TL update*, TL changes are only recommended if resulting variation is > 1.5%
  • A progressive approach to fees recommendations was adopted to smoothen the changes towards the long-term optimal target (based on our 1-month horizon simulation) from a low short-term level. This allows us to anchor a mean-reversion trend (long-term) while adjusting daily for volatility and arbitrage share components

(*)1/ Destroy all BNT; 2/ Move all TKN off-curve; 3/ Mint n BNT; 4/ Pair with the on-curve target number

Weekly Results

  • Trading Liquidity: 5% to 9% pushed off-curve to limit IL exposure
  • Swapping Fee: reduced on average and concentrated across pools to set initial levels for agents feedback loop (incentives). Recommendations react swiftly to arbitrage share. Feedback loop to be observed progressively.
  • Benchmark Fee: recommended fees are well aligned with benchmarks, averaging out through market variations
  • TL-Fee Cross effect: overall decrease in volume but compensated by increase in daily fees revenues
  • Protocol Deficit: Deficit reduction is not (yet) driven by fee revenue. Stabilizing trend though (to be confirmed over next weeks).

🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀

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TL Changes: TL was lowered to limit the impact of additional unrealized IL(i.e. deficit) on current LPs

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💡Insight:

Limiting exposure to IL by retrieving TL offers new paths to re-injecting liquidity in the future

�📈Trend:

Almanak preliminary focus is towards limiting the growth of the protocol’s deficit and realised losses over time

This favors shielding LP’s from any drastic downturn over time. This first step is to limit any further impact on a small share of assets.�

Legend:�Dashed lines are starting point of on-chain TL one-day before launch

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TL;DR

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Swapping Fees Changes: Almanak leads first initiative towards lowering fees to attract more volume and assess behavioural changes

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💡Insight:

Almanak started off by reducing the cross-pool average fee to ignite attraction for more volume and limit unrealized IL �Except for ETH, all pools have seen reduction in fees to set initial levels for agents feedback loop: incentivize users to trade through the Bancor Pools.

📈Trend:

ETH swapping fee has been raised (compared to initial level) to gain a larger revenue share from ETH-TKN trades�The majority of trades pass through the ETH pool, Bancor tries to retain more from these trades than before by only marginally increasing the swapping fee over the week.

Legend:�Dashed lines are inital on-chain fees one-day before launch.

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TL;DR

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Swapping Fees Changes (cont’d): Current fees driven by arbitrage share, additional smoothing needed at beginning

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💡Insight:

Fees are specified by two risk add-ons: volatility and arbitrage share times their respective (optimized) weights. Chart shows raw levels (before smoothing - see Trend below)

👀Observation:

Current parameter set of daily recommendations react swiftly to arbitrage share, limiting loss through these trades�With the arbitrage share staying above 70% across the week for all pools, the current fee structure is sensitive to change in arbitrage, whereas volatility add-on stays mostly stable throughout the week.�

📈Trend:

Following the smoothing approach, long-term risk add-ons are downscaled to avoid structural breaks�The smoothing consists in extrapolating current on-chain fees by a 24h increment estimated out of the long-term 720h (1-month) levels.

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TL;DR

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Swapping Fees Benchmarking: Almanak fees close to benchmark to rebalance losses on pools

💡Insight:

Focusing on LVR, Almanak benchmarks its own recommendations by computing a benchmark fee. See Almanak Benchmark Fee Framework.

The main consideration is the needed compensation for the value extracted by arbitrage from LPs. For every trade, and based on the initial trading fee, we calculate the actual fee for the arbitrage trade to equal out the additional risk of the pool (the arbitrageurs profit).

⚠️Warning:

Almanak calculates the Bancor benchmark fee for every pool Almanak sends recommendations for. The method requires a minimum # of transactions on the pool to be fully relevant. Except for ETH, results should be taken with parsimony. Hence onlys displaying ETH here. We expect this to improve as the other pools rally.

👀Observation:

Proposed fees are on par with benchmark fee, limiting any loss endured by arbitrage/pool imbalances

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TL;DR

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TL and Fees cross-effect: Decreasing volume on overall protocol despite low fees & very limited reduction of liquidity levels

💡Insight:

Daily fees are expressed in % of USD volume to ease comparison with daily volume.

⚠️Warning:

Missing data point for LINK on Nov 20th from Bancor dashboard.

👀Observation:

A drawdown in volume within the ETH pool, even though daily fees held steady with constant to rising levels

Consistent decline in LINK volume can be observed throughout the week, with additionally lower fees since start of the Almanak trial period

Near constant volume levels maintained for less active WBTC & DAI pools are noticed with lower fee shares than the larger pools monitored

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Data:

Daily Fees data available via Bancor Tableau dashboard here.

Daily Volume data available via Bancor Tableau dashboard here.

Legend:�Left bars represent Daily USD Volume (left y-axis)

Right bars represent Daily Fees as USD Volume % (right y-axis)

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TL;DR

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Protocol Deficit: Fees have for now only limited impact on overall protocol deficit, constrained actionability due to price sensitivity

💡Insight:

Current deficit is the cross-pool aggregated difference between staking ledger & vault.

7-day trend deficit is the daily variation moving average.

👀Observation:

Deficit reduction is not (yet) driven by fee revenue�Despite the fee revenue this week, the overall deficit was held to a drop of 3.2%.

A positive trend towards deficit reduction can be observed�The 7-day average deficit shows a stabilizing trend, potentially eradicating the deficit within half a year, if market conditions are favourable. Will need to be confirmed over time.

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Data:

Daily Surplus/Deficit data available via Bancor Tableau dashboard here.

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TL;DR

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