Southeastern Energy Conference

April 7, 2023

Electrification Building Blocks for a

Zero-Carbon Future

Professor Marilyn A. Brown

PhD, NAE, NAS, CEM

Regents and Brook Byers Professor

School of Public Policy

Georgia Institute of Technology

The Science

22% of global carbon emissions are “priced”

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~20% of the world’s largest firms have announced net-zero targets

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25 U.S. States have committed to meeting Paris goals

22 U.S. States have climate plans

The world needs to constrain the increase in global temperatures to well below 2°C.

This requires reducing greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 by 50% relative to 2005.

% of Global CO₂ Emissions

The Response

The “clean energy transition” is underway, but it’s not going fast enough

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Georgia is particularly climate-vulnerable:

Why are its citizens so slow to respond?

Companies in the SE are active in clean energy manufacturing and are committing to action.

Our universities are going strong on climate.

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Climate solutions are available.

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Students want more climate change-centered coursework at universities. Unitegroup.com

Brown, Marilyn A., et al. (2021) “Translating a Global Emission-Reduction Framework for Subnational Climate Action: A Case Study from the State of Georgia,” Environmental Management. 67: 205-227. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-020-01406-1.

61%

A scientific consensus is emerging:

Low-carbon electrification is the biggest “play” to transform the globe.

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In 2018, Georgia’s electric grid was slowly decarbonizing;

With BIL (2021) and IRA (2022), rapid progress is likely.

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Many of Drawdown Georgia’s “high impact” climate solutions involve household electrification

For info on the analysis behind this list of solutions for Georgia: Brown, Marilyn A., (2021). “A Framework for Localizing Global Climate Solutions and their Carbon Reduction Potential,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118 (31); https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2100008118

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• Their collective potential to reduce GHG emissions is significant
• The value of their life cycle energy savings can exceed their additional upfront costs
• They are similar “big-ticket items” that allow us to compare motivations and barriers

This has motivated the Drawdown Georgia Team to study the adoption of EVs, rooftop solar and heat pumps

Why these three solutions?

What are leading cities and states doing to promote them?

And how does this compare to GA?

Los Angeles—a leader in EVs

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• LA has its own:
• quantitative goals and strategies, charging gap analysis
• streamlined permit process
• EV-ready building codes
• chargers and public buses
• toll and carpool lane benefits
• info materials and outreach events
• $1500 State rebate plus:
• ~$1500 from Utility
• ~$2000 from City
• Electric Car Sharing Program

New EV Car Sales

https://www.axios.com/local/atlanta/2022/06/28/electric-vehicle-popularity-Georgia

• Highest Solar PV capacity per person in US
• 20% of homes have solar panels
• Incentives: Utility – Hawaiian Electric
• $4,250 cash bonus for energy storage
• Quick connect pre-approval program
• Export, self-supply and grid-supply options
• State - “Performance Based System” for quick connect
• City - Provides interest-free loans to income eligible homeowners

Honolulu–A leader in rooftop solar

> 1000 W

Per Capita

Homes with Solar*

*Marilyn A. Brown. 2022. Testimony before the Georgia Public Service Commission on Georgia Power’s 2022 Rate Case (Docket No. 44280). December 20, 2022. https://psc.ga.gov/search/facts-document/?documentId=192146

#1

#43

• Has one of the most stringent building codes in the US
• Buildings > 25K SF to limit emission intensity to 0.01 tCO2e/SF starting in 2024
• ENERGY STAR Certification Adoption
• $148.7 Million cost savings
• The City’s commitments to reduce emissions from the building sector include:
• No fossil fuel hookups in new construction and major renovations by 2030
• 20% reduction in energy consumption for City buildings by 2025

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NYC – A leader in energy efficiency

25K SF

Limited emissions/SF

• Limits on carbon intensity

Heat Pump Penetration in 2020 (US=13%)

https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/data/2020/state/pdf/State%20Space%20Heating.pdf

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• How willing are households to adopt individual climate solutions?

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• What inspires households to adopt multiple solutions?

Speed and scale of climate change requires moving to “climate-smart lifestyles”

This caused us to ask:

Marilyn A. Brown, Snehal Kale, Min-kyeong Cha, and Oliver Chapman. 2023. “Exploring the willingness of consumers to electrify their homes,” Applied Energy Vol. 338 (1) 120791. https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1giJd15eif8FJF

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“Toward residential decarbonization: Analyzing household co-adoption of rooftop solar, electric vehicles, and efficient HVAC systems” by Min-kyeong Cha, Cory Struthers, Marilyn A. Brown, Snehal Kale, and Oliver Chapman.

Lots of answers were provided by our GT/UGA survey of 1800 GA adults.

Motivators of Adoption

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Q: For what reasons did you buy a ….

* Subsample of homeowners

“Green signaling” is at work

Barriers to Adoption

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Q: For what reasons have you not yet purchased a ….

Electric Vehicles (N=204)

Rooftop Solar (N=161)

Heat Pumps (N=90)

Lots of constraints affect many who want to adopt.

“Vulnerable” households often can’t afford EE technologies;

But even when they can, they often don’t.

The strongest and most consistent finding is that low-income households have lower adoption rates across most, if not all EE technologies.

A few policy-relevant conclusions:

The “income effect” impacts most climate solutions.

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This reinforces the concern that wealth is required to reap the benefits of the energy transition.

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Thus, inclusive financing and financial assistance are needed.

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What electrification policy is best for any particular community?

Answers should be determined by engaging with community members. Here are some valuable steps for “knowledge co-production”.

The answer: “it depends….”

Learn more about the roadmap of 20 solutions, go here: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2100008118

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Go to Climatesolutions.gatech.edu for more about Drawdown Georgia’s research program, trackers, and the business compact.

For more about Drawdown Georgia: www.drawdownga.org

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Climate and Energy Policy Lab: cepl.gatech.edu/

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Thank You!

Thanks to my team of graduate research assistants:Majid Ahmadi, Min-Kyeong Cha, Oliver Chapman, Snehal Kale, Niraj Palsule