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CORONAVIRUS AND VACCINATION IN THE RUSSIAN REGIONS

PRESENTED BY VASILEVA VLADA

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INTRODUCTION

Over the past month the number of coronavirus deaths in Russia has been surpassing all world records... This fact scares and worries me,

On average, 15% of all those who died during the pandemic died in October. In some regions this figure reaches 25%!

The main aim of my project - mapping the disease by region for October, identify possible clusters and correlate with the number of vaccinated people.

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METHODOLOGY:

I used the ArcGIS methods for clustering:

  • Optimal Hot Spot Analysis
  • Cluster and Outlier Analysis
  • Global Moran’s I

For correlation analysis

  • Excel

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SOURCE OF DATA:

In Russia there is a website "stop coronavirus"

It contains up-to-the-minute data for each region on each day, including mortality rates, detected cases of disease, and the number of people who have been vaccinated.

In Russia, the first months of covid-19 were hiding statistics, the large number of excess deaths proves it.

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HOW TO PROCEED

Collected statistics on the number of cases of infection, deaths (total and separately in October) and the number of vaccinated people in 85 regions of Russia

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RESULTS

Hot Spot analysis

Cluster and Outlier Analysis

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Mortality in the October 2021

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  • The clustering results can be considered significant
  • P-value 0
  • Z-score = 3,7 red part
  • R2 = 0,15

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RESULTS

Hot Spot analysis

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Vaccinated in the Russian regions

Cluster and Outlier Analysis

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RESULTS

The clustering results can be considered significant

  • P-value tends to 0
  • Z-score = 3,6
  • R2 = 0,149

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RESULTS

Map of the percentage of vaccinated people in Russian regions

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CONCLUSIONS

  • The clustering results can be considered significant.
  • In October, there was a clear cluster of high mortality in the southern regions of Russia
  • Most people were vaccinated in the central and most populous part of the country
  • Positive correlation between the number of deaths and the number of vaccinated people (0,84). Then more people die, then more are vaccinated.
  • I expected to see the opposite result, and hoped that the more people vaccinated, the fewer deaths there would be.

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Be careful and wash your hands more often :)