AREA Solar1 Pilot Project
Research, Implementation, and Promotion of Solar Power and Policy in Alberta
Original Goals:
Core Point:
We wanted to have the technical data and economic evidence to the support the “solar” choice.
(and provide evidence that a simple policy incentive would go a long way to push Alberta into the 21st century with renewable energy - would $1/watt preinstall do it?)
Unspoken assumption: the initial cost and ROI are the major barriers to adoption in Alberta.
(I was personally hoping to keep an install under the magic $10,000 mark and 10 year breakeven on system capital)
Current Alberta Policy:
Historically, not very encouraging:
See Alberta Energy -> Micro-Generation for policy:
http://www.energy.alberta.ca/electricity/microgen.asp
“Micro-generators receive credit for any power they send into the electricity grid” but
“The intent of the Micro-generation Regulation is not to provide financial incentives, but to give Albertans choice in the source of their electricity”
Effect of Current Alberta Policy:
The numbers, though growing, seem to bear the “effective drag” of this policy (especially in one of the most expansive & sunniest places on earth).
(We should see how this relatively compares with other provinces and states)
Effect of Current Alberta Policy:
Too few data points and too early to tell, but looks like a linear progression, not an exponential one.
Anticipated Issues and Barriers :
What we expected as real and illusory barriers to adoption:
Rates in Alberta
Pretty volatile in the last decade (likely due to deregulation and some major tremors in the world economy), but still low in terms of global comparison.
The psychological effect is to paralyze effective action on energy issues.
Source: government of Alberta
http://www.ucahelps.alberta.ca/historic-rates.aspx
Psycho-Economic Barrier
But with
Is there anything we really need to be worried about?
how can we make the argument that there is a better way to power Alberta’s electrical grid? That there is a problem? and to ask Albertan’s to change their choice of generation?
Psycho-Economic Barrier
The problems are a psychological - economic combination:
“Don’t ask how the sausages are made”
(paraphrased - John Godfrey Saxe)
Overcoming the
Psycho-Economic Barrier
There are few good signals in Alberta to indicate the current and future state of Alberta electrical generation.
Comparing Rates in Alberta
What’s happening outside of Alberta?
Ontario stats.
Looks more steady, but this needs more research and analysis.
But the trend is clear here - this would be a clear motivator to pay attention to energy related issues.
Source: Ontario Energy Board
http://www.ontarioenergyboard.ca/OEB/Consumers/Electricity/Electricity+Prices/Historical+Electricity+Prices
Comparing Rates in Alberta
Source: https://www.hydro.mb.ca/regulatory_affairs/energy_rates/electricity/utility_rate_comp.shtml
Manitoba Hydro statistic.
In comparison, we seem to be paying at least as much or more than many of our Canadian counterparts, in spite of our “cheap” coal generation, especially at the residential level.
More research is needed to understand these numbers.
(would like to see the CO2 / kWh and generation type-stats as well)
Global Rates:
Source: http://knoema.com/cxoxwg/global-energy-statistics
We clearly enjoy cheap energy in North America, in comparison to the rest of the world.
(makes it easy to neglect and be ambivalent - it’s too trivial)
Alberta Generation
Most of Alberta’s electrical energy comes from:
If coal is discontinued (likely due to particulate and CO2 emissions) something will need to pick up base load demand.
Nuclear, geothermal & solar are the
current candidates.
Source: government of Alberta (Alberta Energy)
http://www.energy.alberta.ca/electricity/682.asp
Solar Potential in Alberta
For a region that has so many sunny days, it seems like a enormous lost opportunity to ignore solar.
Source: http://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Canada/Alberta/sunshine-annual-average.php
1st Step to Energy Awareness - Monitoring Consumption
Kill-A-Watt measurements (single plug monitor)
1st Step to Energy Awareness - Monitoring Consumption
TED 5000 (The Energy Detective) - http://www.ted5000.ca/
patterns and profiles over time
Monitoring Consumption
Kill-A-Watt - gave me a pretty good idea of how much certain appliances used over a short period of time. Highly recommended (especially borrowed from the library). Just plug in for a period and it totals consumption.
TED 5000
- excellent transparency in the profile/patterns of my electrical energy use.
- excellent zoom in and out
- on the large side, I can see seasonal changes
- EG, my freezer is in a uninsulated room (little cost in winter)
- looking for changes in lighting efficiency over the months (need more)
- on the small side, I can see immediate usage (~5 seconds)
- especially important for use by microwave, clothes dryer, etc
TED 5000
Real Time Dashboard
TED 5000
Time
Profiles
TED 5000
Time
Profiles
(Real time profiles of appliances)
TED 5000 Time Profiles
Minute History
TED 5000 Time Profiles
Hour History
TED 5000 Time Profiles
Day History
TED 5000 Time Profiles
Month History
This is an error! (I hope!)
Use of the Data for Sizing System
System Sizing: how big does my system have to be for all my needs?
Use of the Data - Usage Patterns
what is my usage and when?
this uncovers any obvious ways to improve
An Aside - Energy Efficiency
Go for the biggest impact for least cost
(Hat tip - Darryl Kaminski and ThinkEnergy’s approach)
Quick wins:
An Aside - Energy Efficiency
An Aside - Energy Efficiency
PRACTICAL STEPS:
reducing consumption
KEY GOAL: Smaller footprint = smaller system.
An Aside - Energy Efficiency
Sizing - PVWatts Online
http://pvwatts.nrel.gov/pvwatts.php
Simple as plugging in the parameters:
And let it calculate!
Sizing - PVWatts Online
Sizing - PVWatts Online
I used a conservative inverter efficiency of 90%
Sizing - PVWatts Online
Sizing - PVWatts Online
Drawing out solar region
Produces max amount of solar generation for that area indicated by drawing.
Sizing - PVWatts Results
Sizing - PVWatts Results
Note: Money & Power Savings: This would be the savings / production IF:
OR
Research into Panels
Pretty much all the same for large panels -
(Hat tip to Luc - this is a dramatic change from his costs - requires mass production to come down in price.)
Research into Panels
Source: Bloomberg: New Energy Finance
Src: US Dept of Energy
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/62558.pdf
NOTE: Figures in USD
Inverters - Converting DC to AC
Solar Panels create variable DC (Direct Current)
Need to convert that to AC (Alternating Current) in-phase current for household use.
NOTE: AC generated by inverter must be “in phase” with grid AC
Inverters also have other functions - safety and monitoring
Research into Inverters
Two types
- microinverter (one per solar panel)
- system inverter (one per system)
Research into Inverters
MICRO INVERTERS | SYSTEM INVERTERS |
$.75 / watt fixed (CAD) | 3kw ~$.75 and up / watt 10kw ~.60/watt 30kw ~.59/watt |
90-95% efficiency | 98% and up |
monitors individual panel output | monitors system output only |
generally scalable and easy single panel replacement | scalable to inverter capacity threshold - whole system repair or replacement |
generally wired in parallel - single panel shading or malfunction does not disrupt system | (wiring dependent) - single panel shading can have disruptive effect on full system (if required to have threshold voltage) |
Research into Inverters
For the busy, on-the-go exec, who just can’t wait to “plug-in”
Research into Inverters
Decided to go with microinverters -
Research into Support Structures
HIGH VARIATIONS:
Each vendor had different advice on how to install.
Mostly square aluminum pipe, connected with lag bolts and (in the better vendors) aluminum cowling to cover connection.
Support Structures Regulation
Anything other than flush mount:
Was far cheaper to just purchase more panels with flush mount to roof.
Support Structures Regulation
Also would have been easier to redesign and remake roof:
Putting It All Together
Technical and Economic Barriers / Factors:
Putting It All Together
A Typical Estimate*
Putting It All Together
Total System Cost Trends
Source: US Dept of Energy (USD)
Grid Connection Regulations
Much simpler than expected!
(Hat Tip - Richard Wilton - his/Alberta’s streamlined 10 step process for self installations)
Note: it was even simpler for me with KCP, who handled all of this for me. They also had a 10 step process to get my solar online quickly.
Grid Connection Regulations
The process (in short):
Regulations for Off Grid Connection*
*Actually only a few, and more of a guideline, really:
Don’t Kill Yourself, Anyone Else, Your Devices or Your Equipment. Structural regulations still (mostly) apply.
Choosing a Vendor
Tried to weigh all variables in a spreadsheet, cradle to grave, for all vendors and installers (including ourselves):
(missing - externalities, social costs? benefits?)
Choosing a Vendor
Warranty tipped the scales in favour of KCP doing the work:
Anything goes wrong, call KCP (or Enmax) and they will fix
Also, monitoring software is also a definite boon
(hat tip Ken Hogg, who bargained Enmax to add it for free - $250 on time cost savings)
Installing
Preparation:
(hat tip: Ken and group for copious amounts of planning for different implementations, contacting vendors, etc)
Installing
Prep - fixing the garage roof
Prep - Getting Power to the Garage
Moving the Power line from:
To:
Prep - Electrical Preconfiguration
Installing
Installation (pretty anti-climatic):
KCP attached structure and panels in a day.
(hat tip: Tom Jackman and Richard Wilton for running us through a solar install program. After that session, I would not hesitate to make my own “guerilla” solar install)
Support Structure
(Hat Tip to Paul for great pics!!!)
Support Structure
Support & Connection Structure
Research into Support Structures
Emergency Cutoff Switch
Completed Array
Installing and Inspections
Enmax and Inspection:
Note: found a single panel/inverter production problem right away - KCP fixed immediately - would not have caught without the individual panel system monitoring.
Operational Circuit
Grid Connection
Grid Connection
Grid Connection Regulations
Operation
We are PRODUCING!
Operation
Daily use is sized matched pretty well with production for summer.
Daily flow from
Pretty close to projected
stats!
Problems and Challenges
Snow. And a low pitch roof. (doesn’t shed snow well)
(probably require at least 15+ deg pitch).
Problems and Challenges
Almost no production
while snow is on top.
fixed by a ladder, $60 in a squeegee and telescoping handle, and “elbow grease”.
Problems and Challenges
Billing - a mess.
Not easy to compare numbers:
How is this calculated? Need transparency...seems opaque and very difficult to determine offhand.
Problems and Challenges - Billing
April 15 to May 12 2015 - Detailed Bill
Problems and Challenges - Billing
April / May’s Bill - relative comparison by service charge:
Problems and Challenges - Billing
April 15 to May 12 2015 - Detailed Generation:
Would like to know how Enmax is calculating this credit.
Problems and Challenges - Billing
Problems and Challenges - Billing
Problems and Challenges - Billing
Complicated by Time of Generation vs. Consumption:
NOT
USE YOUR ELECTRONS!!!
(Hat Tip to Ken: his insight - better to do your laundry during the day when you are generating)
Problems and Challenges - Billing
Jan 15 to May 12 2015 - Slightly More Detailed Comparison:
Billing Period | Enmax (kWH) | Rate ($) | Home Use (kWh) | Solar Gen (kWh) | Est Grid Return (kWh) | Enmax Cred ($) |
May 1 - May 12 | 96 | 0.045 | 158 | 192 | 34 | 15.06 |
Apr 15 - Apr 30 | 127 | 0.051 | 196 | 246 | 50 | |
Apr 1 - Apr 14 | 140 | 0.051 | 182 | 169 | -13 | 11.2 |
Mar 12 - Mar 31 | 206 | 0.049 | 278 | 169 | -109 | |
Mar 1 - Mar 15 | 158 | 0.049 | 211 | 143 | -68 | 8.56 |
Feb 12 - Feb 28 | 183 | 0.059 | 243 | 79 | -164 | |
Feb 1 - Feb 11 | 114 | 0.059 | 168 | 13 | -155 | ??????? |
Jan 15 - Jan 31 | 162 | 0.074 | 144 | 51 | -93 |
Problems and Challenges - Billing
So, how much is Enmax paying me for my electrons?
Unless I break out both flows:
vs.
I won’t really know for sure - I need a way to monitor flow to and from the Grid.
Problems and Challenges - Billing
Rephrased :
The problem is the reversible meter
IE - information is thrown away.
Solar Electrons going to Grid and
back from Grid (Red flow)
Are combined for a final figure (by Enmax), and the original numbers that arrive at the final result are thrown away
(EG is $4 cred = 104 - 100 or is $4 cred = 14 - 10?)
(need to hookup monitoring to mains on electrical meter)
Analysis - Economic Success?
Could we achieve $3/watt install all in?
With a small subsidy - Yes. Probably won’t be necessary.
System Cost Trends
Source: US Dept of Energy (USD)
*(VERY ROUGH calculation: assuming current trends - solar dropping and asphalt the same, by 2026 solar will be cheaper than asphalt)
Analysis - Economic Success?
Currently
(though it is still early to tell.)
Billing is too opaque, but the overall effect doesn’t have a large effect, even when I am making nearly all my energy.
Payback this way seems exceedingly long (50+ years for payback, if at all), even though I am generating a significant part of my own electricity.
Analysis - Enviromental Success?
Also need data for full “cradle to grave” analysis:
for full disclosure of overall benefit environmentally (even though this seems obvious, it would be best to have data)
Operationally - no environmental impact whatsoever (so far? probably even a benefit - shading my sun beaten garage roof)
Analysis - Policy Success?
NDP - As a majority government?
We might be able to get a better policy for installing systems.
My opinion - the best driver would be better utility power purchase policy. This is where the ROI would improve dramatically.
May align with the recent changes in attitude with the new government - Might have a fighting chance now.
Analysis - Barriers to Adoption
Psychological / Cultural Resistance
“This is an O&G town”
My experience so far talking to other people:
Political Resistance
“This is an O&G town” - probably was more prominent with PCs - looking forward to seeing how NDP handles this.
Historically the Alberta government’s approach and policy essentially embodied the voice for the conventional O&G corporate sector.
And it almost seems too obvious to mention - public coffers filled by “known” O&G corporate royalties - makes this the “sacred cow” of revenue stream for the government. Likely many other hidden subsidies and ‘boomerang payments’.
Aesthetic Concerns
Completely out of the way on the roof. Wires & poles are more of an eyesore, in my neighborhood, but they existed before and there isn’t much difference at all.
(I could have opted to have the garage to house connection underground.)
In my case, solar panels almost invisible - not easy to see on my garage from any angle.
Aesthetic Concerns
Structural Concerns
Leakage or Risks from Structure
Concerns About Siting the System
Siting - Direction roof facing / positioning / shading. Not everyone has this suitability.
MUST have a suitable site - Optimal parameters, in order:
My low pitch has predicted slightly lower efficiency especially in winter, but that was the only siting issue.
Concerns About Siting the System
PVWatts calculator
Safety Concerns
Absolutely no issues.
(with my high-tech ladder & squeegee)
Safety Concerns
�Regulation Concerns and Hassle
Turns out there is very little hassle
*(to provide cheap power at your expense to the grid to enrich your utility company)
This turned out to be far less difficult
Economic Concerns - Upfront Costs
Purchase & Installation
Good chance this will continue to fall or get integrated into home renovation or home purchase costs in the future.
Economic Concerns - Operation
Operation - so far, no obvious costs or issues.
It reliably creates power with no fanfare at all.
This is almost too boring to mention:
Power produced every sunny day*.
*(assuming snow shed)
Economic Concerns - Operation
Payback and ROI (Return on Investment)
*(Due to low energy cost, but really high admin, transmission and distribution costs)
Economic Concerns - Operation
Prediction on Payback - PVWatts great calculator of probable production
(at least in theory, and assuming I can project a roughly precise “cost to each kWh” without fixed fees)
Begs the question: Would it be better to “cut the cord” and buy battery backup, or other means of generation?
Economic Concerns - Rates
Rate volatility in Alberta
- I believe this has a Psycho-Economic effect
This is more of a
Environmental Concerns
A cradle to grave analysis needed:
And then a “apples to apples” comparison needs to be made to other forms of generation.
Real Barriers to Adoption
(no) psychological / cultural (esp in O&G town)
(yes) political (might change with NDP)
(no) aesthetic factors
(no) leakage and structure (tell you in 10 years)
(yes) direction roof facing / positioning / shading
(no) safety
(no) connection regulations
(maybe?) economic (install, operation, payback, rates)
(no?) environmental, but more full analysis req’d
Next Steps - Political & Economic
Overcoming political and economic barriers:
Potential Extensions to Project
Seems that to make a real dent in the bills, I need to consider how to “cut the cord” completely (the real cost is subscribing to expensive wires)
Also, are there any other ways to improve or extend the system?
Time of Day Data both ways
A Must - Extend my monitoring system - Get that TOD data!
Measure and record the flow of electricity going into the grid (extend current TED5000 (or put in another) monitor.
(Need to Tinker - my panel is in the garage and seems too far for TED)
More Effective Consumption
I should know when I am using my power and when I am using the grid:
Power Storage - Short Term
Short term storage seems good for night-time use of power generated during the day, or for managing spikes in usage.
(would need to be sized to handle my peak usage periods, or perhaps attach to the appliance itself)
Power Storage - Long Term
Long term storage is required for seasonal cycles - to last long periods without sunshine (days or weeks).
Most electrical storage devices (batteries) bleed charge over days or weeks. And capacity (and energy density) would have to be enormous.
This issue might improve over time, with new engineering techniques.
I don’t know of anything currently suitable for month long storage of electrical power for residential use. Maybe reversible or regenerative fuel cell technology - but currently incurs low conversion efficiencies.
Other Types of Power Generation
(more research is required)
Using Solar Power Directly
Observation 1: Regulations only (mostly) apply to:
and/or generally any hazard or liability to the public.
Important Observation:
DOES NOT APPLY to connecting solar panels up to DC (Direct Current) storage and loads off the grid.
(EG Electric Bike/Car/Lawnmower batteries, storage and use for devices consuming DC voltage which includes ALL digital devices like TVs, computers, etc).
Using Solar Power Directly
So why do we use AC (alternating current) electricity? Mostly this is a legacy technological issue - we have used AC for the last 1½ centuries - it’s easy and there is a infrastructure to support it.
Using Solar Power Directly
Could we consume DC directly?
Technically, this is entirely possible and already happens.
Using Solar Power Directly
improvements to DC motors in the last 10 years have considerably stepped up torque and efficiency (EG fridge <~ 1 hp) which was the main hurdle to using them in these devices.
Currently, any appliances that natively consumes DC power converts it from AC. In the solar case, losing the double conversion (DC -> AC, then AC -> DC) would increase efficiency.
In the future, perhaps a society’s large (smart) appliances (plus storage) might store and consume DC.
Thanks
Thanks to Ken and the AREA steering committee, as well as the whole renewable group for their support in driving this project forward.
The hope is to:
Suggestions, feedback - RichKHall@Gmail.com