Wargaming�&�The Evolution of Warfare

Matthew B. Caffrey Jr.

Chief, Wargame Development and Education

Air Force Research Laboratory

​

AFRL 06-0056

Distribution A: Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this briefing are those of the speaker and do not necessarily represent the views of the Air Force Research Laboratory or the United States Air Force.

My Bio

• DoD Civil Servant – previous positions
• Professor of Wargaming, ACSC
• Research Associate, SAAS
• Col USAFR (ret.) - USAFR Assignments
• Senior Reservist, AFRL, Info Directorate
• Chief Wargaming, AF/XOOC (Checkmate)
• Author/speaker
• Co-author Gulf War Fact Book
• Many articles, chapters, hundreds of talks

Overview

• What is a Wargame
• The Enduring Roles of Wargaming
• Evolving Needs/Opportunities
• Principle Attributes
• Achieving the Vision

What is a Wargame

Reality

Simulation

Model

Simulation Game

Wargame

Proportional Representation

Over Time

Multiple Sides

Armed Conflict

Elements of all Wargames

WG

The Enduring Role of Wargaming

Observe

Orient

Decide

Act

OODA Loop

The Enduring Role of Wargaming

Observe

Orient

Decide

Wargame

OSD

Svs

JCS

Comb.Cdr

NSS

I

INITIATION

II

CONCEPT

DEVELOPMENT

III

PLAN

DEVELOPMENT

IV

PLAN

REVIEW

V

SUPPORT

PLANS

JOPES

CPG

JSCP

PDMs

BESs

PBDs

PLANNING

BUDGETING

PPBS

President’s

Budget

FYDP

DPG

CPA

CPR

JPD

JSR

Annual

Report

CPR

CPA

JV 20xx

NMS

JSCP

JPD

JSPS

JQRR

IPLs

POMs

PROGRAMMING

DP

CAP

CRS

JROC

JWCA

QDR

Defense Planning Systems

ACRONYM�SOUP

Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Ops Planning

Theater Strategy

Force Planning

“National ATO”

Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Ops Planning

Theater Strategy

Force Planning

“National ATO”

Contingency Wargaming

Title 10 Wargaming

Pol/Mil Wargaming

Evolving Needs/Opportunities

• Diversifying Threats
• Global Opportunities

“Decision Superiority” may by our last option for victory

Diversifying Threats

• “Irregular” warfare likely to be a regular part of the future
• Globalization will continue
• “Better to Rule in Hell then to Serve in Heaven”
• Major States likely to narrow/close conventional gap
• See above
• US retiring more engineers then we are graduating

Global Opportunities

• Internet continues to explode
• Mores Law continues to under predict
• Recreational software continues to eclipse other leisure activities
• Globalization means high tech is increasingly becoming world tech

​

These are Global trends others will take advantage of if we do or not

US Options for Victory

• “Brute Force?”
• Factories moved to China

​

• High Tech
• Retiring more Engineers than Graduating

​

• Bank of Democracy
• Unprecedented National Debt

“Decision Superiority” may by our last option for victory

​

Principle Attributes�

• Knowledgeable Practitioners/Users
• Expeditionary/Networked
• Time Efficient/ Responsive
• Comprehensive/Anticipatory

Knowledgeable Practitioners/Users

• Effectiveness more then technology
• Ace Factor, Air Battle for Hong Kong
• Practitioners
• Right tool for right job
• Consumers of wargame outcomes
• Assessing relative confidence

Assessing Relative Confidence

Factors That Influence Wargaming’s Accuracy

Factor More Accurate Less Accurate

Executions Many Few

Factors Physical Sci Social Sci

Scope Detailed Comprehensive

Level Tactical Strategic

Adversary Symmetric Asymmetric

Doctrinaire / Centralized Decentralized

Technology Old New

Strategy Attrition Effects

Expeditionary/Networked

• Fewer permanent overseas bases yet more forward deployments
• All services effected
• Army/USMC; deploying, deployed, returning
• Navy high at sea rates
• Air Force Forward bases – more sorties/on station time, less fuel
• Expanding connectivity allows reduced footprint, increased global support to the war fighter

​

Time Efficient/ Responsive

Fast to learn, mod, execute – for duration

• Learn
• Expeditionary teams tend to be pick up
• More to cover in service schools
• Mod
• Tough to anticipate conflicts
• Ed update lessons, Tech “what if” capability
• Execute
• Enough “runs” to indicate “envelope of outcomes”
• Enough depth to indicate phase points, end state

Comprehensive/Anticipatory

• Attrition will always be with us
• “Every Bomb is a political bomb”
• Insurgencies are fights for legitimacy
• “Effects Based Approach” requires anticipation of deliberate and “collateral” second and “n-th order” effects
• In age of terrorist “mass effects” and friendly lean logistics anticipation more crucial then ever

Achieving the Vision

• Where it ain’t broke
• Beyond doing old things better
• Breaking the pyridine
• 3^rd Generation Adjudication
• Toward a profession

Where It Ant Broke

Where It Ain’t Broke

Battles Campaigns Wars

Attrition – Logistics – DIME

Where It Is

Battles Campaigns Wars

Attrition – Logistics – DIME

Where It Ain’t Broke

3GWG Benefits

Beyond Doing Old Things Better

• History of Technology, new devices tend to first be used to do old things better
• Wargames with computerized adjudication used to perform traditional wargame roles
• Only later do folks realize greatest benefits of new devices are to do entirely new things.
• Exploit capabilities of computer to create

New* Uses of Wargaming

• Personal Wargames
• Professional Development
• Technology Impact Visualization
• Pre screening
• Technologies
• COAs
• Campaign “Inertial Navigation”
• Predictive Battlespace Awareness
• Campaign assessment and tracking

​

* For the military

Breaking The Paradigm

Breaking The Paradigm

Retains the two sidedness of the 1st,

the attrition of the 2nd and adds

Treatment

of Time

​

Physical

System

Effects

Human

Factors

3rd Generation Wargame

Real combatants function

as systems made up of

internal systems

Models must depict

all combatants as

systems of systems

Design Principle

Systems

• System: The composition of a nation's leadership, transformation, transportation, resources and forces.

Adapted by Col Caffrey from

Col Warden’s Five Rings Model

Col Caffrey’s Definitions

• Leadership: The decision making element of the entity, the General, President or Board of Directors

​

• Transformation: Capacity to transform one resource into another, crude oil into refined oil, students into graduates, flown aircraft into ready aircraft (maintenance teams)

​

Col Caffrey’s Definitions

• Transportation: Capacity to move, speed, cube, weight, information, from one place to another, airlift, pipeline, fiber optic line

​

• Resources: things; skilled workers, refined oil, spare parts

​

• Forces: military capacity

​

Inputs

Capital

Outputs

System Effects Implementation in 3G WG

Inputs on Hand

​

Capital Goods

​

Outputs on Hand

AI Node

Defenses

System Effects Implementation in 3G WG

System Effects Implementation in 3G WG

System Effects Implementation in 3G WG

Human Factors

Immediate & Cascading

Real Human capability

(training, experience)

should influence effectiveness

Human decision criteria

(doctrine, culture)

should be reflected in AI

Design Principle

Building the AI Node & Decision Rules

Doctrine,

Effectiveness

Cultural Norms,

Acceptability

Logistics,

Feasibility

Modeling How They Think

Training Level

All men may be created equal, but they don´t stay that way

Cohesion

Health, Fatigue

Modeling Who They Are

Inputs on Hand

​

Capital Goods

​

Outputs on Hand

AI Node

Defenses

Inputs on Hand

​

Capital Goods

​

Outputs on Hand

AI Node

Defenses

Modeling The Impact of Comm/

AI Reacting To Only What it Knows

Time

​

Specifically the Explicit Modeling of

Decision Loops at all Levels

Turn Cycle

Simulation Duration

Event Duration

Decision Cycle

Design Principle

Observe

Orient

Decide

Act

Boyd’s Decision Loop

Hours to

Days

Seconds

to Hours

Weeks to

Months

Nested Decision Loops

AI /

Human Toggle

AI /

Human Toggle

AI Control

Nested Decision Loops

Implementation in 3G WG

Conclusion

• Both our needs and our opportunities are great
• Smarter users, networked together, using more effective and efficient tools is key
• Such progress is achievable

​

Better wargames are our last best hope to win our nations wars; faster, with fewer casualties, and at a lower cost – making more likely the highest form of victory – a just and lasting peace.

To Learn More

• History
• The Art of Wargaming, Peter Perla, 1990
• http//www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/cc/caffrey.html
• News
• http://www.msrr.dmso.mil/
• http://afmsrr.afams.af.mil/
• http://www-leav.army.mil/nsc/warsim/index.htm

​