1

Disclaimer

The following views are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the the Air Force Research Lab, USAF, or the US Government.

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Why Care

For warned is for armed (Back to the Future II)

• How do we anticipate the future, especially the military future?
• Our methods and expectations have evolved?
• Can we consistently anticipate the future?
• At least better then our adversaries?

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Why listen to me?

• Led Wargaming AFRL – previous positions
• Professor of Wargaming, ACSC
• Research Associate for wargaming, SAAS
• Col USAFR (ret.) - USAFR Assignments
• Senior Reservist, AFRL, Info Directorate
• Chief Wargaming, AF/XOOC (Checkmate)
• Author/Speaker
• Co-author Gulf War Fact Book
• Many articles, chapters, hundreds of talks

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Let’s start with an event that was a mystery, even after it happened.

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The Fall of France 1940

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Americans In 1940 Felt Much More

Empathy And Fear

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Division Equivalents� - �In Theater May 1940

Germany Allies

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Division Eqiv 137.5 158.5

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Ratio 1 1.15

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Weapon Systems� –� In Theater May 1940

Germany Allies %

Tanks 3,227 4,017 0.80

Combat Aircraft 2,740 2,087 1.31

A/T Guns 12,830 8,882 1.44

AA Guns 8,700 5,203 1.67

Field Guns 15,969 9,727 1.64

Heavy Guns 2,900 4,635 0.63

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Tank Comparisons

Pz Kpfw II

CHAR S-35

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Aircraft Comparisons

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Germany’s�Two Wars With France

World War I World War II

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French Allies UK, Belgium UK, Belgium,

Holland

German # 11 million 2 1/2 M

Gr KIA 2 million 44 thousand

Duration 50 months 2 months

Outcome Defeat Victory

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1950s

From Science Fiction to Futurist

• Knowledge of Science
• Imagination
• Extension of Trends

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Wargaming – Hitting Sabbath Holes In One

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Dupuy��Late1970s

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Mini Ball -- Maxi Impact

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Civil War Casualties�Equivalent to Today's Population

1860 population 32 M - casualties 714,000

2006 population 300 M - casualties 6.700,000

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The Innovation Cycle

• Casualty rates at historical norm
• New Technology emerges
• Technology is exploited in weapons, etc..
• Casualty rates increase
• New tactics/operations/organizations evolve
• Casualty rates may increase and or decrease
• Tactics / operations / organizations mature
• Casualty rates return to historic norm

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MARSHAL

1980s

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Military Technical Revolution

• Scientific/technical advance
• Item (weapon, vehicle, comm) that exploits that advance
• Tactics, operational concept that best employs item.
• Organization that facilitates tactics/ operational concepts

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Impacts of Absolute and Relative MTR Position

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The Battle of Agincourt

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The Battle of Agincourt

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The Battle of Agincourt

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The Battle of Agincourt

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The Battle of Agincourt

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The Battle of Agincourt

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Castle

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Adapting Castle

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Ditch

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Ft McHenry

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Liberty �Island

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December 7, 1941

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Early Carrier Operations

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The Light Carrier Shoho Prior To Sinking

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Why Do Nations Fall Behind in MTRs?

Caffrey

Early 1990s

35

The Cycle �History to Application

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

Execution

36

The History to Application Cycle

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

Execution

37

The “Unique” Fallacy

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

Execution

38

1918; UK World Leader in Tank, Technology, Tactics & Organization

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Doctrine is Force Structure

Great

Britain

Tank

Battalions

Cavalry

Regiments

1918

48

46

1920

6

42

40

Horse Flesh vs Blitzkrieg

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The Price of Folly

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The “End of History” Fallacy

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Senior Partner in Victory

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Prepared to Fight WWI Better

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The Price of Folly

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Germany Gets It Right

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Germany Gets It Right

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Relative MTR Maturity

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Relative MTR Maturity

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German Land OB - 1944

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Ratio of Divisions: 2.5 : 1

Germany

USSR

US

UK

CW

Other

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Impacts of MTRs

• Both sides immature

- both high casualty rates - American Civil War

• Both sides mature at similar rates

- casualty rates return to norm - War in Pacific

• One side matures more quickly

- side ahead low / side behind high - Fall of France

• Both sides mature

- casualty rates return to norm - Late WWII in Europe

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The Cycle �History to Application

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

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Revolutions In Military Affairs�Late 1990s��Concept Driven

• Concept Pull
• Procedures that implement concept
• Organization that facilitates procedures
• Technology that enables / facilitates

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58

59

60

61

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The USMC Gets It Right

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64

65

66

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MTR

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RMA

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MTR vs RMA�Technology vs Concept

• Technology push - reactive
• Concept pull - proactive

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• Technology more common
• Concept more broad

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MTR & RMA �Common Traits

• Maturity is the product of all elements
• Relative maturity key
• Numbers can overcome greater maturity
• Both require hardware, procedural and organizational change to achieve their full potential

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​

MTRs & RMAs

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The RMA

Late 1990s

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The RMA

Late 1990s

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RMA

Early 2000s

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Transformation

Early 2000s

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Advantages of the Term�Transformation

• Was NOT used by previous administration
• Avoids silly debate over how big a change has to be to be considered “revolutionary”
• Correctly implies broad scope of change

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Toward Transformation� in the National Interest

• What are our national objectives?
• What concept of war can best achieve those objectives?
• Quest for strategy that works:
• for Democracies
• against Dictators
• What technologies are needed to implement?

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The New Futurists��Mid 2000

Not all trends are created equal

• Secondary Effects of Trends
• Trends Reaching Limits
• Trends Crossing Tipping Points

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Applying Boyd’s OODA Loop

Late 2000s

To understand why wargames are so helpful it is necessary to understand OODA Loops.

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Observe

Orient

Decide

Act

OODA

Loop

Boyd predicted, and experience confirms, with experience OODA Loops get tighter and decisions get more effective

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Boyd’s OODA Loop

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Independent Confirmation

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Why Is Wargaming So Effective?

Observe

Orient

Decide

Act

Friendly

Not necessarily.

As we go through our OODA Loop…

Decide

Orient

Adversary

Observe

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Why Is Wargaming So Effective?

Observe

Orient

Decide

Act

Friendly

…Our Adversaries go through their OODA Loop, their OODA Loops get tighter and decisions get more effective just as ours do

Decide

Orient

Observe

Adversary

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Why Is Wargaming So Effective?

Observe

Orient

Decide

Wargame

Blue

Wargames allow their users to improve their decisions and their decision makers without a similar improvement taking place in the enemy

Decide

Orient

Red

Observe

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Why Is Wargaming So Effective?

Observe

Orient

Decide

Both the Blue and Red players improve get tighter and decisions g�Blue’s real adversary is unaffected. So…

Decide

Orient

Observe

Wargame

Blue

Red

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Why Is Wargaming So Effective?

Observe

Orient

Decide

Act

Friendly

When we do engage our adversary our OODA Loop is shorter and more effective – their’s is unchanged

Decide

Orient

Observe

Adversary

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The Caffrey Cycle �History to Application

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

88

The Caffrey Cycle �History to Application

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

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