SECURITY ANALYSIS AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
Unit- I
Investment: Investment -Meaning- Types - Objectives -Process- Investment Vs Speculation Vs Gambling -Primary and Secondary Markets – indices-types of orders – margin trading - Trading Mechanism. Online, mock, and Virtual trading, Portfolio theory: Concept of Risk, Measuring Risk and Returns – risk classification – Systematic risk – unsystematic risk - standard deviation – variance – correlation coefficient – Beta – Calculating expected return and risk. Financial calculations in Excel using the data from NSE and BSE (Smart beta)
Unit-II
Securities valuation: Approaches of valuation – fixed income valuation -Bond valuation (Types of Bonds, Interest Rates, Term Structure of Interest Rates, Measuring Bond Yields, Yield to Maturity, Yield to Call, Holding Period Return, Bond Pricing Theorems, Bond Duration, Modified Duration. Active and Passive Bond Management Strategies, Bond immunization, Bond Volatility, Bond Convexity). -equity stock
Valuation -Discounted Cash Flow Techniques, Dividend Discount Models (DDM), Growth Rate cases for DDM, Free Cash Flow Valuation Approaches, Relative Valuation Techniques, Earnings Multiplier Approach, Price/ Earnings, Price/ Book Value, Price/ Sales Ratio, EVA.
Unit- III
Fundamental analysis and technical analysis: Fundamental Analysis Vs Technical Analysis –Fundamental Analysis - Economy, Industry and Company analysis Technical Analysis –Dow Theory -Line chart, Bar chart, Candle stick chart, Point figure chart-Support level, Resistance Level-Head and Shoulders. Using Excel for charts. Specific five indicators.
Unit – IV:
Portfolio Analysis: Risk and Return Analysis, Markowitz Portfolio Theory, Mean-Variance Approach, Portfolio Selection, Efficient Portfolios, Single Index Model, Capital Asset Pricing Model, Arbitrage Pricing Theory.
UNIT-V
Performance Evaluation of Mutual Fund: Mutual Funds, Types of Mutual Funds Schemes, Structure, Trends in Indian Mutual Funds, Net Asset Value, Risk and Return, Performance Evaluation Models: Sharpe Model, Treynor Model, Jensen Model, Fama’s Decomposition Financial calculations in excel Exchange traded funds momentum strategies.
Textbooks
Reference Books
1. Ranganatham & Madhumathi Security Analysis Portfolio Management, Pearson Education, 2011.
2. Sudhindra Bhat Security Analysis and Portfolio Management, 2017, excel
COURSE EDUCATIONAL OBJECTIVES (CEO’S):
1. To acquaint the students with working knowledge of investment
2 .To provide students with a conceptual and analytical framework for evaluating a financial security
3 .To familiarize students with fundamental analysis and technical analysis
4 .To construct the optimum portfolio by diversifying risk and maximizing return
5 .To familiarize students with portfolio evaluation and management techniques and strategies.
COURSE OUTCOMES (CO’S):
At the end of the course students would be able to
CO1 :Apply practical knowledge of investment principles to real-world scenarios.
CO2 :Evaluate financial securities using a conceptual and analytical framework.
CO3 :Analyze financial instruments through both fundamental and technical approaches.
CO4 :Synthesize risk diversification techniques to construct an optimal portfolio.
CO5 :Utilize portfolio evaluation and management techniques for effective decision-making
INTRODUCTION OF INVESTMENT
Investment is the commitment of money or other assets to acquire assets that are expected to generate income or appreciate in value over time. It is a crucial aspect of financial planning and wealth
OR
Investment involves the allocation of money towards purchasing an asset, which is not to be consumed in the present but hoping it will generate stable income or is expected to appreciate in the future. So, investment is a commitment of funds to derive the future income in the form of interest, dividend, rent, premium or appreciation in the value of principal capital.
OR
Investment may be defined as an activity that commits funds in any financial/physical form in the present with an expectation of receiving additional return in the future.
OR
In other words, Investment is a commitment of funds to derive the future income in the form of interest, dividend, rent, premium or appreciation in the value of principal capital .
Definition
Definition of Investment
Investing involves allocating funds to assets with the expectation of generating returns. These returns can be in the form of interest, dividends, capital appreciation, or a combination of these.
Financial Security
Investing allows individuals to build a financial safety net and protect their wealth from inflation and market fluctuations.
Long-Term Growth
Investing for the long term allows individuals to accumulate wealth and achieve their financial goals, such as retirement planning, purchasing a home, or funding education.
Passive Income
Investing can generate passive income streams, such as dividends from stocks or rental income from real estate, providing financial independence.
Importance of Investment
Investing is essential for individuals and businesses seeking to grow their wealth and secure their financial future. It plays a crucial role in economic development.
1
Economic Growth
Investments fuel economic growth by providing capital for businesses to expand and create jobs.
2
Inflation Protection
Investing in assets that can outpace inflation, such as stocks or real estate, helps preserve wealth and maintain purchasing power.
3
Financial Independence
Investing allows individuals to achieve financial independence by generating income streams and building wealth over time.
4
Risk Management
Diversifying investments across different asset classes reduces portfolio risk and helps mitigate potential losses.
Types of Investment
Stocks
1
Equity Ownership
Stocks represent ownership in a company, making you a shareholder. When the company does well, your stock value can increase.
2
Potential for Growth
Stocks have the potential to generate high returns, but they also carry higher risk than other investments.
3
Diversification
Investing in a diverse portfolio of stocks can help mitigate risk and increase returns.
4
Long-Term Perspective
Stocks are considered a long-term investment, typically held for several years or decades.
Bonds
Debt Securities
Bonds are essentially loans you make to a company or government. You receive interest payments over the life of the bond, and the principal is repaid at maturity.
Lower Risk
Bonds generally have lower risk than stocks, but they also offer lower potential returns. They can be a good option for more conservative investors.
Income Generation
Bonds provide a predictable stream of income through interest payments. They are often used to supplement retirement income or provide a steady stream of cash flow.
Mutual Funds
Diversification
Mutual funds pool money from multiple investors to buy a basket of stocks, bonds, or other assets. This diversification helps to reduce risk.
Professional Management
Mutual funds are managed by experienced professionals who make investment decisions on behalf of investors. This can be a benefit for those who lack the time or expertise to manage their own investments.
Accessibility
Mutual funds are generally accessible to investors of all income levels. You can invest in a mutual fund for a small amount of money, making them a good option for those just starting out.
Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)
Similar to Mutual Funds
ETFs are similar to mutual funds in that they track a specific index or basket of assets.
Traded on Exchanges
ETFs are traded on stock exchanges, making them more liquid and responsive to market fluctuations than mutual funds.
Lower Fees
ETFs typically have lower expense ratios than mutual funds, which can result in higher returns over time.
Real Estate
Rental Income
Real estate can generate passive income through rental properties. It can be a good way to diversify your investment portfolio and hedge against inflation.
Potential for Appreciation
Real estate values can appreciate over time, providing a return on your investment. It can also be a good way to build equity.
Tax Advantages
Real estate investments can offer various tax advantages, such as mortgage interest deductions and depreciation write-offs.
Tangible Asset
Real estate is a tangible asset, meaning it is something you can physically own and touch. It can provide a sense of security and stability.
Government Saving Schemes
1
National Savings Certificates
These offer guaranteed returns with tax benefits, making them popular for long-term savings.
2
Public Provident Fund
A government-backed scheme with tax advantages, offering a secure and stable investment option for retirement planning.
3
Sukanya Samriddhi Account
Specifically designed for girls, this scheme offers tax benefits and encourages long-term savings for their education and marriage.
Money Market Instruments
Treasury Bills
Short-term debt securities issued by the government, providing a safe and liquid investment option.
Commercial Paper
Unsecured short-term debt issued by corporations, offering higher yields but with greater risk compared to Treasury Bills.
Certificate of Deposit
Time deposits with a fixed interest rate, offering a secure and predictable return on investment for a specific period.
Money Market Instruments
Treasury Bills
Short-term debt securities issued by the government, providing a safe and liquid investment option.
Commercial Paper
Unsecured short-term debt issued by corporations, offering higher yields but with greater risk compared to Treasury Bills.
Certificate of Deposit
Time deposits with a fixed interest rate, offering a secure and predictable return on investment for a specific period.
Commodities
1
Raw Materials
Commodities are basic raw materials, such as oil, gold, wheat, and cotton. They are often used as inputs in manufacturing and production.
2
Price Fluctuations
Commodity prices can be highly volatile, affected by supply and demand factors, as well as geopolitical events.
3
Hedging
Commodities can be used as a hedge against inflation. As the price of goods and services rises, the price of commodities often follows suit.
Precious Metals
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Safe Haven Asset
Industrial Uses
Industrial and Jewelry Uses
Historically a Hedge Against Inflation
Less Volatile Than Gold
Higher Price Than Gold and Silver
Insurance Products
Life Insurance
Provides financial protection to beneficiaries in case of the policyholder's death, ensuring their financial security.
Home Insurance
Covers losses or damages to a homeowner's property due to various risks, such as fire, theft, or natural disasters.
Motor Insurance
Provides financial protection against accidents, theft, and damages to vehicles, covering both the insured vehicle and third-party liabilities.
Health Insurance
Protects individuals against medical expenses incurred due to illnesses or injuries, providing financial support for healthcare costs.
Cryptocurrencies
Decentralized Digital Currencies
Cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, are digital assets that operate on a decentralized network, eliminating the need for intermediaries.
Potential for Growth
Cryptocurrencies have experienced rapid growth in recent years, attracting investors seeking high returns.
Venture Capital
High-Growth Companies
Venture capital is invested in early-stage companies with high growth potential, typically in sectors such as technology, healthcare, and biotechnology.
High Risk, High Reward
Venture capital investments are high-risk, as many startups fail. However, those that succeed can generate enormous returns for investors.
Limited Access
Venture capital investments are typically reserved for accredited investors, who have a high net worth or significant financial experience.
Private Equity
High Risk
Private equity investments carry high risk, as they are often illiquid and can be difficult to sell quickly.
Potential High Returns
The potential for high returns is often the main attraction to private equity investors.
Limited Availability
Private equity investments are often only available to accredited investors with a high net worth.
Angel Investing
Early-Stage Companies
Angel investors typically invest in startups or early-stage companies with high growth potential.
High-Risk, High-Reward
Angel investing is a high-risk, high-reward proposition. The potential for large returns is balanced by the risk of losing the entire investment.
Active Involvement
Angel investors often take an active role in the companies they invest in, providing mentorship and guidance.
Savings Accounts
1
Safe and Secure
Savings accounts are FDIC-insured, meaning that your deposits are protected up to a certain amount.
2
Low Returns
Savings accounts typically offer low interest rates, meaning that your money will grow slowly.
3
Easy Access
You can easily access your money in a savings account at any time.
Certificates of Deposit (CDs)
Fixed Interest Rates
CDs offer a fixed interest rate for a set period of time.
Maturity Date
You cannot withdraw money from a CD before its maturity date without incurring a penalty.
Potential for Higher Returns
CDs typically offer higher interest rates than savings accounts.
Money Market Accounts
High Liquidity
Variable Interest Rates
FDIC-Insured
Low Minimum Balance Requirements
Life Insurance
1
Financial Protection
Life insurance provides a death benefit to your beneficiaries, which can help to cover funeral expenses and other financial obligations.
2
Different Types
There are many different types of life insurance, including term life insurance and whole life insurance.
3
Investment Component
Some life insurance policies also have an investment component, which allows you to grow your money over time.
TYPES OF INVESTMENT
INVESTMENT ALTERNATIVES
These are the tools used to reduce risk through diversification.
91- Day, 182- day, 364- day, and 14- day TBs
Blue-chip shares
Blue chip stocks are shares of very large and well-recognised companies with a long history of sound financial performance. ... Since then the term has been used to refer to highly-priced stocks, but now it is used more commonly to refer to high-quality stocks.
or
A blue-chip stock is a huge company with an excellent reputation. These are typically large, well-established and financially sound companies that have operated for many years and that have dependable earnings, often paying dividends to investors. A blue-chip stock typically has a market capitalization in the billions, is generally the market leader or among the top three companies in its sector, and is more often than not a household name. For all of these reasons, blue-chip stocks are among the most popular to buy among investors. Some examples of blue-chip stocks are IBM Corp., Coca-Cola Co. and Boeing Co.
https://www.samco.in/knowledge-center/articles/best-blue-chip-stocks-to-buy-now-in-india/
Income shares :
These stocks belong to companies that have comparatively stable operation and limited growth opportunities . The bank shares and some of the fast moving consumer goods , stocks as nestle and Hindustan lever may be termed as income shares
Penny stocks
Penny stocks are those that trade at a very low price, have very low market capitalisation, are mostly illiquid, and are usually listed on a smaller exchange. Penny stocks in the Indian stock market can have prices below Rs 10. These stocks are very speculative in nature and are considered highly risky because of lack of liquidity, smaller number of shareholders, large bid-ask spreads and limited disclosure of information.
Growth shares
the stocks that have higher rate of growth than the industrial growth rate in profitability are refereed to as growth shares
Right now all IT companies shares
Defensive shares
Defensive stocks are relatively unaffected by the market movements for ex : pharmaceutical stock
Cyclical shares:
The business cycles affects the cyclical shares the upward and downward movement of the business cycle affect the business prospects of certain companies and their stock prices
Ex : auto mobile
Speculative shares
Shares that have lot of speculative trading in them are referred to as speculative shares .during the bull and bear phases of the market . This shares attracts the attention of the traders
Value share
A value stock refers to shares of a company that appears to trade at a lower price relative to its fundamentals, such as dividends, earnings, or sales, making it appealing to value investors . A value stock can generally be contrasted with a growth stock . A value stock is trading at levels that are perceived to be below its fundamentals.
Investment objectives /charterstics
Return : investor always expected a good rate of return from their investment . Rate of return could be defined as the total income the investor receives during the holding period stated as a percentage of the purchasing price at the beginning of the holding period
Return = (End period value – beginning period value +Dividend )/beginning period value x100
or
= (Today price – yesterday price)/yesterday price x100
= (Capital appreciation + dividend)/Purchase price x100
Share is purchased in 2020 at Rs ,1000 , disposed at Rs 1100 in 2021 and the dividend yield is RS 50 , then the return would be calculated as follows
= (100 +50)/1000 x100
= 150/1000 x100
= 15 %
https://www.bseindia.com/markets/equity/EQReports/StockPrcHistori.html?flag=0
Risk: Risk of holding securities is related with the probability of actual return becoming less than the expected return
(Risk may relate to loss of capital , delay in repayment of capital , non- payment of interest, or variability of returns )
Liquidity: Marketability of the investment provides liquidity to the investment . The liquidity depends upon the marketing and trading facility . If the portion of the investment could be converted into cash without much loss of time , it would help the investor meet the emergencies
Hedge against inflation :Since there is inflation in almost all the economy, the economy, the rate of return should ensure a cover against the inflation. The return rate should be higher than the rate of inflation , otherwise the investor will have loss in real terms. Growth stocks would appreciate in their values overtime and provide a protection against inflation.
https://tradingeconomics.com/india/inflation-cpi
Safety :The safety of on investment implies the certainty of return of capital without loss of money or time. Safety is another feature which an investor desires for his investments. Every investor expects to get back his capital on maturity without loss and without delay.
Factors affecting for investment
Interest rate :
investment is strongly influenced by interest rates. High interest rates make it more expensive to borrow. High interest rates also give a better rate of return from keeping money in the bank. With higher interest rates, investment has a higher opportunity cost because you lose out the interest payments.
Economic growth
Firms invest to meet future demand. If demand is falling, then firms will cut back on investment. If economic prospects improve, then firms will increase investment as they expect future demand to rise. There is strong empirical evidence that investment is cyclical. In a recession, investment falls, and recover with economic growth.
Confidence
Firms will only invest if they are confident about future costs, demand and economic prospects. Confidence will be affected by economic growth and interest rates, but also the general economic and political climate. If there is uncertainty (e.g. political turmoil) then firms may cut back on investment decisions as they wait to see how event unfold.
Inflation
inflation rates can have an influence on investment. High and variable inflation tends to create more uncertainty and confusion, with uncertainties over the future cost of investment. If inflation is high and volatile, firms will be uncertain at the final cost of the investment, they may also fear high inflation could lead to economic uncertainty and future downturn. Countries with a prolonged period of low and stable inflation have often experienced higher rates of investment.
Productivity of capital
Long-term changes in technology can influence the attractiveness of investment. In the late nineteenth century, new technology such as Bessemer steel and improved steam engines meant firms had a strong incentive to invest in this new technology because it was much more efficient than previous technology. If there is a slowdown in the rate of technological progress, firms will cut back investment as there are lower returns on the investment.
Government regulations
can make investment more difficult. For example, strict planning legislation can discourage investment. On the other hand, government subsidies/tax breaks can encourage investment. In China and Korea, the government has often implicitly guaranteed – supported the cost of investment. This has led to greater investment – though it can also affect the quality of investment as there is less incentive to make sure the investment has a strong rate of return.
Investment process
Investment process involves a series of activities leading to purchase of securities or other investment alternatives
It consist of five stages
The investor or government before proceeding into investment formulates the policy for the systematic functioning . The essential ingredients of the policy are the investible funds, objectives and the knowledge about the investment alternatives and market
Investible funds : the entire investment procedure revolves around the availability of investible funds. The fund may be generate through saving or from borrowings . if the funds are borrowed , the investor of has to be extra careful in the selection of investment alternatives . The return should be higher than the interest he pays . Mutual funds invest their owner’s money in securities .
Objectives:
The objectives are framed on the premises of the required rate of return , need for regularity of income , risk perception and the need for the liquidity . The risk taker is objective is to earn high rate of return in the form of capital appreciation , whereas the primary objective of the risk averse is the safety of the principal.
Knowledge :
The knowledge about the investment alternatives and markets plays a key role in the policy formulation . The investment alternatives range from security to real estate . The risk and return associated with investment alternatives differ from each other. investment in equity is high yielding but has more risk than the fixed income securities . Tax sheltered schemes offer tax benefit to the investor
The investor should be aware of the stock market structure and the functions of the brokers .the mode of operation varies among BSE, NSE . Brokerage charges are also different . The knowledge about the stock exchange enable him to trade the stock intelligently.
Security analysis
After formulating the investment policy , the securities to be bought have to be scrutinised through the market and company analysis
Market analysis
The stock market mirrors the general economic scenario . The growth in gross domestic product and inflation are reflected in the stock prices .the recession in the economy results in a bear market . The stock prices may be fluctuating in the short run but in the long run they move in trends . i.e either upwards or downwards. The investor can fix his entry and exit point through technical analysis
Industry analysis
The industries that contribute to the output of the major segments of the economy vary in their growth rates and their overall contribution to economic activity .some industries grow faster than the GDP and are expected to continue in their growth . For ex : Information technology and Pharmaceutical industry . The economic significance and the growth potential of the industry have to be analysed
Company analysis
The purpose of company analysis is to be help the investor to make better decision . The company’s earnings, profitability , operating efficiency , capital structure and management have to be screened . The factor have direct bearing on the stock prices and the return of the investors . Appreciation of the stock value is a function of the performance of the company. Company with high product market share is able to create wealth to the investors in the form of capital appreciation
Valuation
The valuation helps the investor to determine the return and risk expected from an investment in the common stock . The intrinsic value of the share is measured through the book value of the share and price earing ration . Simple discounting models also can be adopted to value the shares. The stock market analysts have developed many advanced models to value the shares. The real worth of the share is compared with the market price and then the investment decision are made
Future value :
The future value of securities could be estimated by using a simple statistical technique like trend analysis . The analysis of historical behaviour of the price enables the investor to predict the future values.
Construction of portfolio
A Portfolio is a combination of securities . The portfolio is constructed in such manner to meet the investor goals and objectives. The investor should decide how best to reach the goals with securities available. The investor tries to attain maximum return with minimum risk. Towards this end he diversifies his portfolio and allocates funds among the securities
Diversification : the main objective of diversification is the reduction of the risk in the loss of capital and income . A diversified portfolio is comparatively less risky than holding a single portfolio . There are several ways to diversify the portfolio
Debt and equity diversification : Debt instrument provide assured return with limited capital appreciation . Common stocks provide income and capital gain but with the flavour of uncertainty . Both debt instruments and equity are combined to complement each other.
Industry diversification : industries growth and their reaction to government polices differ from each other . Banking industry shares may provide the regular return but with limited capital appreciation . Information technology stock yield high return and capital appreciation but their growth potential after covid is not predicate . Thus industry diversification is needed and it reduce risk
Company diversification :
Securities from different companies are purchased to reduce the risk . Technical analysis suggest that the investor buy securities based on the price movement. Fundamental analysis suggest the selection of financially sound and investor friendly companies
Selection based on the diversification level , industry and company analyses the securities have to be selected .funds are allocated for the selected securities. Selection of securities and the allocation of funds and seals the construction of portfolio
Evaluation
The portfolio risk has to be managed efficiently . The efficient manager calls for evaluation of the portfolio
The process consists of portfolio appraisal and revision
Appraisal the return and risk performance of the security vary from time to time . The variability in returns of the securities is measured and compared . The developments in the economy , industry and relevant companies from which the stocks are brought have to be appraised . The appraisal warns the loss and steps can be taken to avoid such losses
Revision : Revision depends on the result of the appraisal , the low yielding securities with high risk are replaced with high yielding securities with low risk factor .to keep the return at a particular level necessitates the investor to revise the components of the portfolio periodically
Investment vs Speculation
Speculation means taking up the busines risk in the hope of getting short term gains .speculation involves buying and selling activities with the expectation of getting profit from the price fluctuations
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Basis | Investor | Speculator |
Time | Plans for longer time horizon | Plans for a very short period . |
Horizon | His holding period may be from one year to few years | Holding period varies from few days to months |
Risk | Assumes moderate risk | Willing to undertake high risk |
Return | Likes to have moderate rate of return associated with limited risk | Like to have high returns for assuming high risk |
Decision | Consider fundamental factors and evaluates the performance of the company regularly | Consider inside information , heresays and market behaviour |
Funds | Use his own funds and a avoid borrowed funds | Uses borrowed funds to supplement his personal resources |
Financial market is a market which facilitates creation of assets and exchange of securities to provide short, medium and long term business finance.
MONEY MARKET:
It is a market which deals in short term securities and whose maturity period is less than one year
Capital Market:
It is a market which deals in medium and long term securities with a maturity period of more than one year.
Functions of Financial Market
Instruments | Issued By | Duration | Purpose |
Treasury Bill | RBI on behalf of the central government. | 14 to 365 days | To fulfill short term needs. |
Commercial Paper | Large and creditworthy company | 15 to 365 days | Seasonal and working capital needs. |
Call money | Inter-bank transaction | 1 to 15 days | To maintain CRR. |
Certificate of deposits | Commercial bank and financial institution. | 91 to 365 days | Helps tight liquidity period. |
Commercial Bill | Seller to buyer | Upto 1 year | Meet working capital requirements. |
Money Market Instruments
Distinction between Capital Market and Money Market��
Basis | Money Market | Capital Market |
Participants | RBI, banks, financial institutions and finance companies. | Financial institutions, banks, corporate entities, foreign investors. |
Instruments | Treasury bills, trade bills reports, commercial paper and certificates of deposit. | Equity shares, debentures, bonds and preference shares. |
Investment outlet | Requires a huge investment outlet. e.g., treasury bills require a minimum amount of ₹25,000 and its multiples thereof. | Requires a small investment outlet as unit value of securities is very low i.e., ₹10 or ₹100. |
Duration | Deals in short- term securities with maturity period of less than one year or even a single day. | Deals in medium and long-term securities with a maturity period of more than one year. |
Liquidity | Instruments are highly liquid as there is a ready market for the sale, purchase or discounting of instruments. | Instruments are liquid as they can be easily traded in stock exchange but comparatively less liquid. |
Safety | Instruments are safe because of shorter duration of investment. | Instruments are risky because of the longer duration of investment both in terms of returns and repayment. |
Expected Return | Money market securities yield comparatively less return on investment due to shorter duration. | Capital market securities yield higher returns due to longer duration |
Capital market is of further two types:
Primary Market
Methods of Floatation
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Difference between Primary and Secondary Market:��
�
Basis | Primary Market | Secondary Market |
Nature of Securities | Securities issued for the first time. | Sale and purchase of securities which already exist. |
Process of Transactions | Issue directly to investors or through an intermediary. | Ownership changes between brokers. |
Capital Formation | Promotes direct capital formation. | Promotes indirect capital formation. |
Trading of securities | Only buying of securities. | Buying and selling of securities. |
Price Determination | Decided by management of the issuing company. | Determined by market forces of demand and supply. |
Location | No geographical boundaries. | Located at a specific place. |
Securities indices
Nifty indices in india
https://www1.nseindia.com/live_market/dynaContent/live_watch/live_index_watch.htm
Listing of securities
Depositories
As an investor you must know about the depositories in the country. In India, there are two depositories: National Securities Depositories Ltd (NSDL) and Central Securities Depositories Ltd (CDSL). Both the depositories hold your financial securities, like shares and bonds in dematerialised form, and facilitate trading in stock exchanges. Before starting your trading journey, you must keep in mind that you are compulsorily required to open a demat account and a trading account. You must always remember to open the best demat account with a reliable stock broker as it will help you make wise investment decisions
A clearing house acts as a mediator between any two entities or parties that are engaged in a financial transaction. Its main role is to ensure that the transaction goes smoothly, with the buyer receiving the tradable goods he intends to acquire and the seller receiving the right amount paid for the tradable goods he is selling.
Clearing house
|
Securities trading :Types of orders
Buy and sell orders are placed with members of the stock exchanges by the investors. The order are different types
Market Order
Limit Order
A limit order is one of the types of orders, where the trader can set a price to buy or sell a security.
Unlike market order, where the trader doesn’t have any control over price, in a limit order, the trader will set the price.
Stop-Loss types of orders
Stop-loss market order
Stop-loss market order is types of orders, where the trader sets a trigger price to exit the trade if the price goes against his expectation.
Cover Order
Based on Time Duration
Also based on time duration, there can be:
Good For Day Order – order will stay valid till the end of the current trading session.
Good Till Day Order – We can keep our order active for a few days.
Eg- If we place an order on 1st March and it does not get executed, we can carry forward to say till 4th march.
If it doesn’t get executed even on 4th march, the order will be cancelled.
Immediate or Cancel Order – Types of orders once placed will be executed immediately if it is not executed it will cancel itself.
In this case, it may so happen that the order will be partially executed.
Eg- If we place an order to buy 1000 shares and only 600 shares get immediately purchased, the rest order of 400 will gets cancelled.
MARGIN TRADING
Margin trading is buying stocks without having the entire money to do it.
The exchanges have an institutionalised method of buying stocks without having the capital through the futures market.
A method of buying shares that involves borrowing a part of the sum needed from the broker executing the transaction. The collateral for the loan is normally securities in the investor's account.
The investor must deposit an initial amount of cash(down payment called “margin”) or securities (initial margin or margin requirement) into a margin account with the broker & can purchase stocks worth more, and must thereafter maintain a minimum amount of cash or securities (margin) in the account as collateral (maintenance margin, minimum maintenance or maintenance requirement).
The broker charges interest on this loan(in addition to the commission on each buy/sell trade).
The investor has to keep the entire stockholding with the broker as collateral. Also, the investor has to put up additional cash in case the value of the stockholding falls below a certain amount.
Regularity systems for equity markets
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI)– Regulator of the financial markets in India that was established on 12th April 1988.
It was initially established as a non-statutory body, i.e. it had no control over anything but later in 1992, it was declared an autonomous body with statutory powers. he
This regulatory authority plays an important role in regulating the securities market of India. Thereby it is important to know the purpose and objective of the same.
Role of SEBI:
This regulatory authority acts as a watchdog for all the capital market participants and its main purpose is to provide such an environment for the financial market enthusiasts that facilitate the efficient and smooth working of the securities market. SEBI also plays an important role in the economy.
To make this happen, it ensures that the three main participants of the financial market are taken care of, i.e. issuers of securities, investors, and financial intermediaries.
1. Issuers of securities
These are entities in the corporate field that raise funds from various sources in the market. This organization makes sure that they get a healthy and transparent environment for their needs.
2. Investor
Investors are the ones who keep the markets active. This regulatory authority is responsible for maintaining an environment that is free from malpractices to restore the confidence of the general public who invest their hard-earned money in the markets.
3. Financial Intermediaries
These are the people who act as middlemen between the issuers and investors. They make the financial transactions smooth and safe.
Functions of SEBI:
The main primary three functions are-
1. Protective Functions
As the name suggests, these functions are performed by SEBI to protect the interest of investors and other financial participants.
It includes-
2. Regulatory Functions
These functions are basically performed to keep a check on the functioning of the business in the financial markets.
These functions include-
3. Development Functions
This regulatory authority performs certain development functions also that include but they are not limited to-
Portfolio concept
RISK
Risk definition
TYPES OF RISK AND IMPLICATIONS
Different types of risk can be classified under two main groups, viz.,
A. Systematic Risk
Systematic risk is due to the influence of external factors on an organization. Such factors are normally uncontrollable from an organization's point of view.
It is a macro in nature as it affects a large number of organizations operating under a similar stream or same domain. It cannot be planned by the organization.
The types of systematic risk are depicted and listed below.
Interest rate risk
Interest-rate risk arises due to variability in the interest rates from time to time. It particularly affects debt securities as they carry the fixed rate of interest.
The meaning of price and reinvestment rate risk is as follows:
Price risk arises due to the possibility that the price of the shares, commodity, investment, etc. may decline or fall in the future.
Reinvestment rate risk results from fact that the interest or dividend earned from an investment can't be reinvested with the same rate of return as it was acquiring earlier.
Market risk
Market risk is associated with consistent fluctuations seen in the trading price of any particular shares or securities. That is, it arises due to rise or fall in the trading price of listed shares or securities in the stock market.
Purchasing power or inflationary risk
Purchasing power risk is also known as inflation risk. It is so, since it emanates (originates) from the fact that it affects a purchasing power adversely. It is not desirable to invest in securities during an inflationary period.
Demand inflation risk arises due to increase in price, which result from an excess of demand over supply. It occurs when supply fails to cope with the demand and hence cannot expand anymore. In other words, demand inflation occurs when production factors are under maximum utilization.
Cost inflation risk arises due to sustained increase in the prices of goods and services. It is actually caused by higher production cost. A high cost of production inflates the final price of finished goods consumed by people.
Unsystematic Risk
Unsystematic risk is due to the influence of internal factors prevailing within an organization. Such factors are normally controllable from an organization's point of view.
It is a micro in nature as it affects only a particular organization. It can be planned, so that necessary actions can be taken by the organization to mitigate (reduce the effect of) the risk.
Business or liquidity risk
Business risk is also known as liquidity risk. It is so, since it emanates (originates) from the sale and purchase of securities affected by business cycles, technological changes, etc.
Asset liquidity risk is due to losses arising from an inability to sell or pledge assets at, or near, their carrying value when needed. For e.g. assets sold at a lesser value than their book value.
Funding liquidity risk exists for not having an access to the sufficient-funds to make a payment on time. For e.g. when commitments made to customers are not fulfilled as discussed in the SLA (service level agreements).
Financial or credit risk
Financial risk is also known as credit risk. It arises due to change in the capital structure of the organization. The capital structure mainly comprises of three ways by which funds are sourced for the projects. These are as follows:
Owned funds. For e.g. share capital.
Borrowed funds. For e.g. loan funds.
Retained earnings. For e.g. reserve and surplus.�
Exchange rate risk is also called as exposure rate risk. It is a form of financial risk that arises from a potential change seen in the exchange rate of one country's currency in relation to another country's currency and vice-versa. For e.g. investors or businesses face it either when they have assets or operations across national borders, or if they have loans or borrowings in a foreign currency.
Recovery rate risk is an often neglected aspect of a credit-risk analysis. The recovery rate is normally needed to be evaluated. For e.g. the expected recovery rate of the funds tendered (given) as a loan to the customers by banks, non-banking financial companies (NBFC), etc.
Credit risk is the possibility of a loss resulting from a borrower's failure to repay a loan or meet contractual obligations
Sovereign risk is associated with the government. Here, a government is unable to meet its loan obligations, reneging (to break a promise) on loans it guarantees, etc.
Settlement risk exists when counterparty does not deliver a security or its value in cash as per the agreement of trade or business.EE
Operational risk
Operational risks are the business process risks failing due to human errors. This risk will change from industry to industry. It occurs due to breakdowns in the internal procedures, people, policies and systems.
Model risk is involved in using various models to value financial securities. It is due to probability of loss resulting from the weaknesses in the financial-model used in assessing and managing a risk.
People risk arises when people do not follow the organization’s procedures, practices and/or rules. That is, they deviate from their expected behavior.
Legal risk arises when parties are not lawfully competent to enter an agreement among themselves. Furthermore, this relates to the regulatory-risk, where a transaction could conflict with a government policy or particular legislation (law) might be amended in the future with retrospective effect.
Political risk occurs due to changes in government policies. Such changes may have an unfavorable impact on an investor. It is especially prevalent in the third-world countries.
Risk measurement
understanding the nature of the risk is not adequate unless the investor or analyst is capable of expressing it in some quantitative terms . Expressing the risk of a stock in quantitative terms makes its comparable with other stocks .
Measurement cannot be assured of cent per cent accuracy because risk is caused by numerous factors such as social , political , economic and managerial efficiency .
Measurement provides an approximate quantification of risk . The statistical tool often used to measure and used as a proxy for risk is the standard deviation
RISK
Probability | Security A | Security B |
0.5 | 4 | 0 |
0.4 | 2 | 3 |
0.1 | 0 | 3 |
Give the security of your preference. the security has to be selected on the basis of return and risk
Return E(r) = R1 XP1 + R2 XP2+ R3 XP3
Security A = 4 x 0.5 + 2 X 0.4 +0 x 0.1
= 2 + 0.8 + 0
Expected Return = 2.8
Security B = 0 x 0.5 + 3 X 0.4 +3 x 0.1
= 0 +1.2+0.3
Expected Return = 1.5
Return wise, security A is return is high
RISK
ri | Pi | [ri -E(r)]2 | Pi [ri -E(r)]2 |
4 | 0.5 | [4-2.4]2 = 1.44 | 0.5 x 1.44 = 0.720 |
2 | 0.4 | [2-2.4]2 = 0.64 | 0.4 x 0.64 =0.256 |
0 | 0.1 | [0-2.4]2 = 7.84 | 0.1 x 7.84 = 0.784 |
| 1.76 | ||
Security A:
Standard deviation
σ = √1.76 =1.33
Security B
ri | Pi | [ri -E(r)]2 | Pi [ri -E(r)]2 |
0 | 0.5 | [0-1.5]2 = 2.25 | 0.5 x 2.25 = 1.125 |
3 | 0.4 | [3-1.5]2 = 2.25 | 0.4 x 2.25 =0.9 |
3 | 0.1 | [3-1.5]2 = 2.25 | 0.1 x 2.25 = 0.225 |
| 2.25 | ||
Security B:
Standard deviation
σ = √2.25 =1.5
In security A, the return is high and risk is low , hence A is Preferrable
A share is currently selling at Rs 50 . it is expected that a dividend of Rs 2 per share would be paid during the year and the share could be sold at Rs .54 at the end of the year . calculate the expected return from the share
R = 2+(54-50)/50
= (2+4)/50
= 6/50
= 0.12 = 12%
Calculate the expected return and the standard deviation of the returns for a stock having the following probability distribution of the return
Possible return (in per cent ) | Probability of occurrence
|
-25 | 0.05 |
-10 | 0.10 |
0 | 0.10 |
15 | 0.15 |
20 | 0.25 |
30 | 0.20 |
35 | 0.15 |
Possible return Xi | Probability P(Xi)
| Product Xi * P(Xi)
|
-25 | 0.05 | -1.25 |
-10 | 0.10 | -1.00 |
0 | 0.10 | 0.00 |
15 | 0.15 | 2.25 |
20 | 0.25 | 5.00 |
30 | 0.20 | 6.00 |
35 | 0.15 | 5.25 |
expected return | 16.25 | |
Possible return Xi | Probability P(Xi)
| [ri -E(r)] | [ri -E(r)]2 | Pi [ri -E(r)]2 |
-25 | 0.05 | -25-16.25 =-41.25 | 1701.56 | 85.08 |
-10 | 0.10 | -10-16.25=-26.25 | 689.06 | 68.91 |
0 | 0.10 | 0-16.25 = -16.25 | 264.06 | 26.41 |
15 | 0.15 | 15-16.25 = -1.25 | 1.56 | 0.23 |
20 | 0.25 | 20-16.25 = 3.75 | 14.06 | 3.52 |
30 | 0.20 | 30-16.25 = 13.75 | 189.06 | 37.81 |
35 | 0.15 | 35-16.25 = 18.75 | 351.56 | 52.73 |
|
| Variance | 274.69 | |
Standard deviation = √274.69 = 16.57 %
Price | Probability |
115 | 0.1 |
120 | 0.1 |
125 | 0.2 |
130 | 0.3 |
135 | 0.2 |
140 | 0.1 |
Here the probable returns have to be calculated using the formula
Calculation of probable returns
Price Possible return (per cent )
115 =(0+(115-120)/120 =-0.0416=4.17
120 0.00
125 4.17
130 8.33
135 12.50
140 16.67
Calculation of expected return
Possible return | Probability | Product |
4.17 | 0.1 | -0.417 |
0.00 | 0.1 | 0.000 |
4.17 | 0.2 | 0.834 |
8.33 | 0.3 | 2.499 |
12.50 | 0.2 | 2.500 |
16.67 | 0.1 | 1.667 |
| E(ri)= 7.083 | |
Month | BSE national index | ITC |
1 | 7.41 | 9.43 |
2 | -5.33 | 0.00 |
3 | -7.35 | -4.31 |
4 | -14.64 | -18.92 |
5 | 1.58 | -6.67 |
6 | 15.19 | 26.57 |
7 | 5.11 | 20.00 |
8 | 0.76 | 2.93 |
9 | -0.97 | 5.25 |
10 | 10.44 | 21.45 |
11 | 17.47 | 23.13 |
12 | 20.15 | 32.83 |
Bse index return (X) | ITC return (Y) | X2 | Y2 | XY |
7.41 | 9.43 | 54.9081 | 88.9249 | 69.8763 |
-5.33 | 0 | 28.4089 | 0 | 0 |
-7.35 | -4.31 | 54.0225 | 18.5761 | 31.6785 |
-14.64 | -18.92 | 214.3296 | 357.9664 | 276.9888 |
1.58 | -6.67 | 2.4964 | 44.4889 | -10.5386 |
15.19 | 26.57 | 230.7361 | 705.9649 | 403.5983 |
5.11 | 20 | 26.1121 | 400 | 102.2 |
0.76 | 2.93 | 0.5776 | 8.5849 | 2.2268 |
-0.97 | 5.25 | 0.9409 | 27.5625 | -5.0925 |
10.44 | 21.45 | 108.9936 | 460.1025 | 223.938 |
17.47 | 23.13 | 305.2009 | 534.9969 | 404.0811 |
20.15 | 32.83 | 406.0225 | 1077.809 | 661.5245 |
∑X=49.82 | ∑Y=111.69 | ∑X2 = 1432.749 | ∑Y2 = 3724.977 | ∑XY=2160.481 |