Defeating Asymmetric Adversaries�through�Joint Campaign Forecasting

Col Matthew B. Caffrey Jr

Senior Reservist

Information Directorate

AF Research Laboratory

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I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e

The Paradox

• The US is spectacularly successful in conventional warfare
• Fastest advance in history of warfare
• Removed Saddam Hussein from power suffering half the casualties needed to remove him from Kuwait
• US not yet successful against asymmetric threat
• US has suffered far more casualties after the end of conventional operations

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My Thesis

Just as Second Generation War Games, used to plan battles, helped the US achieve dominance in conventional warfare, so Third Generation War Games, used to forecast joint campaigns, can help us achieve dominance of asymmetric warfare.

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Overview

• Definitions
• Background
• Transformation
• Elements of Third Generation Wargaming
• Elements of Joint Campaign Forecasting
• The Payoff
• The Road Ahead

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What is a War Game?

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STRATEGY

ATTRITION

EFFECTS

What Are War Game Generations?

Background

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Prepare Strategist

Background

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Prepare Strategist

Prepare Strategy

Background

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Prepare Strategist

Prepare Strategy

Execute Strategy

Background

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Prepare Strategist

Prepare Strategy

Execute Strategy

1^st Gen Wargame

Background

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Prepare Strategist

Prepare Strategy

Execute Strategy

1^st Gen Wargame

2nd Gen Wargame

Background

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Prepare Strategist

Prepare Strategy

Execute Strategy

1^st Gen Wargame

2nd Gen Wargame

Background

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Prepare Strategist

Prepare Strategy

Execute Strategy

1^st Gen Wargame

2nd Gen Wargame

3rd Gen Wargame

Background

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Prepare Strategist

Prepare Strategy

Execute Strategy

1^st Gen Wargame

2nd Gen Wargame

3rd Gen Wargame

Transformation

• Transformation should not be an end in itself but a path to greater effectiveness
• Historically Revolutions in Military Affairs do not reach their peak in increased effectiveness until new technologies are used in new ways in new structures
• Franco-Prussian War, French machine gun
• Fall of France, French tank

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Elements of 3^rd Generation War Games

• Adjudicates EBO through adding
• Human Factors
• System Effects
• Decision Cycles

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• Shrinks war fighter's Decision Loop
• Expeditionary hardware
• Fast to learn and execute interfaces
• Inherent reach back capability

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Retains the two sidedness of the 1st,

the attrition of the 2nd and adds

Treatment

of Time

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Physical

System

Effects

Human

Factors

Elements of 3rd Generation War Games

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Real combatants function

as systems made up of

internal systems

Models must depict

all combatants as

systems of systems

Design Principle

System Effects

Systems

• System: The composition of a nation's leadership, transformation, transportation, resources and forces.

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Adapted by Col Caffrey from

Col Warden’s Five Rings Model

Col Caffrey’s Definitions

• Leadership: The decision making element of the entity, the General, President or Board of Directors

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• Transformation: Capacity to transform one resource into another, crude oil into refined oil, students into graduates, flown aircraft into ready aircraft (maintenance teams)

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Col Caffrey’s Definitions

• Transportation: Capacity to move, speed, cube, weight, information, from one place to another, airlift, pipeline, fiber optic line

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• Resources: things; skilled workers, refined oil, spare parts

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• Forces: military capacity

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Inputs

Capital

Outputs

System Effects Implementation in 3G WG

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Inputs on Hand

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Capital Goods

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Outputs on Hand

AI Node

Defenses

System Effects Implementation in 3G WG

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System Effects Implementation in 3G WG

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System Effects Implementation in 3G WG

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Real Human capability

(training, experience)

should influence effectiveness

Human decision criteria

(doctrine, culture)

should be reflected in AI

Design Principle

Human Factors

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Building the AI Node & Decision Rules

Doctrine,

Effectiveness

Cultural Norms,

Acceptability

Logistics,

Feasibility

Modeling How They Think

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Training Level

All men may be created equal, but they don´t stay that way

Cohesion

Health, Fatigue

Modeling Who They Are

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Inputs on Hand

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Capital Goods

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Outputs on Hand

AI Node

Defenses

Inputs on Hand

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Capital Goods

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Outputs on Hand

AI Node

Defenses

Modeling The Impact of Comm/

AI Reacting To Only What it Knows

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Turn Cycle

Simulation Duration

Event Duration

Decision Cycle

Design Principle

Time

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Observe

Orient

Decide

Act

Boyd’s Decision Loop

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Hours to

Days

Seconds

to Hours

Weeks to

Months

Nested Decision Loops

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AI /

Human Toggle

AI /

Human Toggle

AI Control

Nested Decision Loops

Implementation in 3G WG

Shrinking Warfighter’s �Decision Loop

• Fast to learn and execute interfaces
• Inherent reach back capability
• Expeditionary hardware

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Fast to learn & execute interfaces

• Much faster spin up
• Built in instruction/tutorials
• Intuitive interface
• On-line help
• Much faster setup
• Low resolution data on all Earth physical geography, infrastructure, and forces resident
• Intuitive, powerful: map, scenario, platform, AI editor
• Faster to comprehend outputs
• Output designed to speed comprehension
• Detail of data adjustable for need

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Expeditionary

• Run on standard easy to deploy notebook computer
• Built in reachback capability

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How Hard Will it be to Create a� 3^rd Generation Wargame?

• Many components already exist
• Integration may be biggest challenge

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Armor in WWI May be a �Good Analogy

Tank - More Integration Than Invention

• WWI Incredibly Hard on Allies
• Technology for the tank was not new
• Hydraulic recoil on cannon – France 1870s
• Internal combustion engine – Germany + 1880s
• Caterpillar tread – USA 1880s
• Armor plate – ancient
• Yet it took until late in the war for these technologies to start saving lives

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Wargaming Today

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“Seconds to Hours”

Engineering and Engagement Models

“Hours to Days”

Mission Level Models

“Months to Years”

Conflict Level

Attrition-Based Models

Problem

“Days to Months”

Campaign Level Models

Existing Models

By

Duration Depicted

Contribution

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3GWG Effort

Joint Campaign Forecasting

• First Generation War Games help develop strategists
• Second Generation War Games help develop strategies
• Third Generation War Games will help implement strategies – through Joint Campaign Forecasting

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Joint Campaign Forecasting��Analogy

When using an aircraft’s inertial navigation system the intended route would be input before takeoff. During the flight the navigator would accomplish periodic “fixes” establishing the craft’s actual location through sighting on a star or landmark. The crafts estimated position would then be updated with the actual position. The inertial system would then update the estimated time of arrival, and in some systems the estimated fuel remaining at destination.

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Joint Campaign Forecasting��The Process

• Accomplish COA analysis using Joint Campaign Forecasting (JCF) software
• JCF projects probability of success; time, casualties, cost to end state
• Test/Rehearse selected COA using JCF
• Changes made during exercise projected forward to end state
• JCF runs continually during campaign
• Battle Damage Assessment entered and impacts adjudicated
• Changes made during exercise projected forward, the time and cost to each phase point also recalculated
• Strategy division can use for “what if” drills at any time
• Changes in state of adversary quickly identified as major divergence between projected and actual

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Elements of Joint Campaign Forecasting

• Software – 3^rd Generation War Game adjudication
• Hardware – expeditionary
• Networking – linking current intelligence/target status data bases to JCF software and to all war planers - war fighters
• Education and training – use in education and planning so users will be experienced when conflict starts

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The Pay Off

US, allied, and friendly states enjoy a decisive “decision superiority” over conventional and asymmetric adversaries through the use of improved wargames employed both new and long accepted ways.

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The Road Ahead

• Bring 3^rd Generation War Game work within Commanders Predictive Environment/Predictive Battlespace Awareness works as Joint Campaign Forecasting

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Questions?

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Back Up Slides

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Why Wargame At All?

• Required by Joint Doctrine (JP 3-30 page III-13)
• Joint doctrine is authoritative
• Required by AF Doctrine (AFDD 2-1 Page 65)
• Wargames show impact of a thinking adversary, pure models and simulation do not
• Influential with Congress, supports appropriations
• Influential with Joint Force Commanders
• Wargaming’s historical track record for:
• Accelerating Transformation
• Developing Strategists
• Developing Strategies

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“This is not (exactly) the enemy we wargamed against.”

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Lt Gen William Wallace

Commanding Gen V Corps

Operation Iraqi Freedom

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3^rd Gen WG – As Much Integration as Invention

• More comprehensive adjudication
• Physical effects – many places
• Human factors – IFS, IFG, HE
• Campaign length runs – IFT
• Faster insights – IFSB
• Much faster spin up
• Much faster setup
• Faster to comprehend outputs
• Expeditionary
• Deploy forward/reach back

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Background

• First Generation wargames were used to develop “down board” thinking in future commanders for several millennium.
• Second Generation wargames were initially used the same way, but in the 1870s Multke began using them to plan battles and the opening moves of campaigns
• The US war gaming community has been coming closer to Third Generation War gaming. However, so far we have advocated using them to perform the functions currently performed by Second Generation Wargames.

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