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Welcome!

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Thank You!

Thank you to DRCOG for allowing us to use their space.

We are a volunteer-run organization and membership funded.

Visit dabedenver.org to learn more!

Your feedback and speaker ideas are always welcome! �Email us at: dabechapter@gmail.com

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The Increasing Price of Electricity

Kate Strickland - Director, Strategic Projects, Research & Industry Strategy for the Smart Electric Power Alliance (SEPA). Kate works across SEPA's research portfolio and with members and industry to identify key strategies and opportunities to advance a clean, affordable, and resilient energy system for all. Contact: kstrickland@sepapower.org

Dr. Steven Dahlke - Senior Economist at the Colorado Public Utilities Commission, where he serves as an expert witness on proceedings covering electric resource planning, electricity markets, prudence reviews, rate cases, and other investigations before the Commission. Contact: steven.dahlke@state.co.us

Andrew Holder - Director of Community Relations and Local Government Affairs in 2023. He has served as the Northern Colorado Area Manager for Xcel and in various project management positions, from advanced grid infrastructure to new project development. Contact: Andrew.P.Holder@xcelenergy.com

Today’s Panel

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Average Residential Electricity Rates (Nominal)

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  • Prices accelerated sharply after 2020.

  • Xcel recently has converged with rest of Colorado residential prices.

  • Driven by labor & materials inflation, and growing capital requirements.

* Data from EIA Form 861, provided by Xcel in 2025 electric rate case.

 

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Rate Projection�Average Retail Rates, Xcel Colorado

  • Electric rates projected to rise from $0.15/kWh today to ~$0.25/kWh in 2044.

  • Increases mostly driven by capital components and increased purchases via PPAs.

  • ~77% projected increase in retail sales over 20 years in this example scenario.

*Projection from PSCo Long-Term Rate Analysis (Low Load scenario), Just Transition Solicitation.

“Capital components” include projected returns on equity + debt plus depreciation, less generation tax credits and AFUDC credit

 

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Xcel Colorado Projected CapEx

  • A large and consistent stream of distribution and transmission infrastructure is projected

  • Generation CapEx, mostly renewables, storage, and gas turbines comes in lumps every few years.

  • Projection assumes about half of needed generation is owned by PSCo, other half purchased.

* CapEx projection from PSCo Long-Term Rate Analysis (Low Load scenario), Just Transition Solicitation.

 

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Electricity Industry Trends + DELTa

Kate Strickland, Director, Research & Industry Strategy, SEPA

February 25, 2026

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Key National Electricity Industry Trends

  • Growing Demand: U.S. electricity demand projected to rise by 25% x 2030, and 78% x 2050.
    • Due to growing demand for power from data centers and industrial customers, total U.S. generation by the electric power sector is expected to grow by +2.3% in 2025 (U.S. EIA).
  • Capacity Retirements: U.S. electricity generators planned to retire 12.3 GW of capacity in 2025, a 65% increase compared to 2024 (7.5 GW retired) (U.S. EIA).
  • Interconnection & Project Pipeline Challenges:
    • 2,300 GW of generation capacity (mostly solar and batteries) awaiting interconnection as of EOY 2024.
    • New gas turbines are backordered for an estimated 5-7 years.
    • Transmission and permitting constraints are still problematic.
  • Affordability: States and utilities are wrestling with how to keep electricity prices in check while accommodating load growth and ensuring resource adequacy. U.S. retail electricity prices have increased faster than the rate of inflation since 2022.
    • Average U.S. residential electricity rate rose over 5% from July 2024 to July 2025 (U.S. EIA).

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Recent Trends in U.S. Retail Electricity Prices

Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, October 2025. Analysis of inflation-adjusted retail electricity prices, utility expenditures, and cost drivers across U.S. states from 2019–2024.

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The Increasing Price of Electricity

Kate Strickland - Director, Strategic Projects, Research & Industry Strategy for the Smart Electric Power Alliance (SEPA). Kate works across SEPA's research portfolio and with members and industry to identify key strategies and opportunities to advance a clean, affordable, and resilient energy system for all. Contact: kstrickland@sepapower.org

Dr. Steven Dahlke - Senior Economist at the Colorado Public Utilities Commission, where he serves as an expert witness on proceedings covering electric resource planning, electricity markets, prudence reviews, rate cases, and other investigations before the Commission. Contact: steven.dahlke@state.co.us

Andrew Holder - Director of Community Relations and Local Government Affairs in 2023. He has served as the Northern Colorado Area Manager for Xcel and in various project management positions, from advanced grid infrastructure to new project development. Contact: Andrew.P.Holder@xcelenergy.com

Today’s Panel

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DELTa

About DELTa

Partnership between SEPA & NC Clean Energy Technology Center

  • Sourced from PUC filings and utility websites
  • Categorized based on industry synthesis
  • Publicly available
  • Downloadable dataset
  • Updated quarterly
  • Broad use by policymakers, regulators, utilities, industry
  • Follow-on insight briefs

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Why Catalog Large-Load Tariffs?

Rates, contracts, and service rules may help utilities manage costs and reduce uncertainties. A shared point of reference highlights diverse, innovative options and key considerations.

Source: Database of Emerging Large-Load Tariffs (DELTa). Smart Electric Power Alliance (SEPA) and North Carolina Clean Energy Technology Center (NCCETC). https://sepapower.org/large-load-tariffs-database. Data as of November, 2025.

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DELTa Catalogs Emerging Principles

Seven Categories of Terms & Conditions

  1. Customer Study Fees
  2. Minimum Contract Term
  3. Load Ramp-Up Period
  4. Minimum Monthly Bill as % Contract Capacity
  5. Financial Assurances and Contributions
  6. Contract Modification Terms & Fees (incl. exit)
  7. Energy Transition Provisions (incl. load flex)

Links to Full Text

Source: Database of Emerging Large-Load Tariffs (DELTa). Smart Electric Power Alliance (SEPA) and North Carolina Clean Energy Technology Center (NCCETC). https://sepapower.org/large-load-tariffs-database.

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Costs to Serve & Customer Pricing

Examples from DELTa - November, 2025

Utility & Tariff

Notes

Otter Tail Power

Super Large General Service (Approved)

  • Rate is designed to capture the marginal costs the utility expects to incur serving the customer's load; any additional unanticipated costs will be recovered through riders

Arizona Public Service

Extra High Load Factor (XHLF) Rate (Proposed/Pending)

  • Proposed a new cost allocation method to directly assign new generation costs to serve growth based on the level of increased load each class experiences.
  • Also proposed making XHLF tariff mandatory for “large-use customers requiring the procurement of new generation resources to serve their load.. not already in APS' resource plan..."

Evergy Kansas

Large Load Power Service (LLPS) Rate Plan and Associated Tariffs (Approved)

  • Proposed a system support rider (a per-kW demand charge), minimum bill, early termination fee.
  • Also proposed updating line extension policies to ensure large load customers pay all of the costs necessary to serve them.
  • The plan includes optional tariffs to allow large load customers to receive bill credits for using their own capacity as Southwest Power Pool (SPP) capacity & using onsite generation for DR services.

Georgia Power

Rules and Regulations

(Approved)

  • Amended general service rules and transmission and wholesale distribution line extension regulations for customers with a peak demand of at least 100 MW.
  • Goal to ensure effective cost recovery of new upstream generation, transmission and distribution costs to serve large-load customers.
  • Grants the utility discretion to impose longer contract terms; implement minimum billing; and require performance and credit provisions.
  • Builds upon existing cost recovery mechanisms for site-specific costs (contributions in aid of construction, upfront payments)

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DELTA - Tariff Example

AEP Ohio - Schedule DCT (Data Center Tariff)

Tariff Element

Notes

Data Center Customer with Minimum Demand (MW)

25 MW

Contract Term

8 years + Up to 4-year Load Ramp Period

  • In Year One: 50% contract capacity
  • In Year Two: 65% contract capacity
  • In Year Three: 80% contract capacity
  • In Year Four: 90% contract capacity

Minimum Bill as a % of Contract Capacity

85%

Financial Assurance & Contributions

  • Credit Rating
  • Collateral Requirement

Customer Pays Utility Study Costs

Study Fees

  • > 25 MW to < 50 MW: $10,000
  • 50 MW to < 100 MW: $50,000
  • > 100MW: $100,000

Contract Modification Provisions

  • Notice to Change or Exit
  • Change or Exit Fees
  • Security Reductions or Release

Energy Transition Provisions

Not Specified

Credit Rating/Collateral Requirement

  1. Minimum credit rating A- from S&P Global and A3 from Moody’s, and cash greater than 10x collateral requirement or
  2. A guarantee of 50% of total minimum charges for full term

Cost Allocation Practices

Minimum demand requirements to ensure that investments in the system will be paid for by data center customers instead of other customers.

Notice to Change/Exit Fees

  • During the initial term, customer obligated to pay minimum charges.
  • After initial contract term, 3 years from requested modification date.
  • Option to pay an “exit fee” after 5 years (post-ramp period); e.g., a customer with 3-year ramp can exit and pay fee only after year 8. Exit fee: minimum charges for 36 months.

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The Increasing Price of Electricity

Kate Strickland - Director, Strategic Projects, Research & Industry Strategy for the Smart Electric Power Alliance (SEPA). Kate works across SEPA's research portfolio and with members and industry to identify key strategies and opportunities to advance a clean, affordable, and resilient energy system for all. Contact: kstrickland@sepapower.org

Dr. Steven Dahlke - Senior Economist at the Colorado Public Utilities Commission, where he serves as an expert witness on proceedings covering electric resource planning, electricity markets, prudence reviews, rate cases, and other investigations before the Commission. Contact: steven.dahlke@state.co.us

Andrew Holder - Director of Community Relations and Local Government Affairs in 2023. He has served as the Northern Colorado Area Manager for Xcel and in various project management positions, from advanced grid infrastructure to new project development. Contact: Andrew.P.Holder@xcelenergy.com

Today’s Panel