This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 820989 (project COMFORT, Our common future ocean in the Earth system – quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points). The work reflects only the author’s/authors’ view; the European Commission and their executive agency are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information the work contains.
Evolutionary responses to present and future temperature conditions in 40+ commercially exploited fisheries of the North Atlantic using an elasticity-analysis approach
Anna Shchiptsova1
with Ulf Dieckmann1,2,3, Mikko Heino1,4,5 and Jaideep Joshi1,6
1 Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
2Complexity Science and Evolution Unit, Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University, Japan
3Department of Evolutionary Studies of Biosystems, The Graduate University for Advanced Studies (Sokendai), Hayama, Japan
4Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway
5Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen, Norway
6Geographisches Institut, University of Bern, Switzerland
Comfort General Assembly 11 May 2023, Bergen, Norway
Motivation
2
Can the direction of selection acting on life-history traits be reversed by ocean warming in the North Atlantic?
Horizontal lines indicate whether fisheries-induced evolution (FIE) is implicated and the time periods of data, with thin lines indicating gaps (from Heino et al. 2015)
Fisheries-induced selection acting on life-history traits of a fish stock
The tested temperature-size rule model is shown with solid lines, where dashed lines represent possible growth and longevity past the limit of the experiment (from Wootton et al. 2022)
Temperature-induced effects on
life-history processes of a fish stock
Selection gradient (SG)
3
Methodology
4
Bioenergetic model
Age-, size-, and stage-specific
41 North Atlantic fisheries
ICES WGEVO data
Temperature-induced effects
Life-history parameter response
to temperature change
Literature-based estimates
Spatial temperature trend
Historical and model projections
IPCC WGI Interactive Atlas
Evolutionary response to ocean warming
Elasticity analysis
Present SG
Future SG
Further details can be found in WP4 D4.3 “Report on ecological and evolutionary dimensions of tipping points” and WP3 D3.4 “Report on past and future vulnerabilities of selected fish stocks to tipping points”
Spatial temperature trend
5
Sea surface temperature (SST) change 2041-2060
Color indicates values (℃) relative to the baseline of equilibrium freezing point of seawater (-1.96℃)
Temperature-induced effects
6
Life-history process | Negative scenario: Warming reduces population growth | Positive scenario: Warming enhances population growth | Source |
Growth | Slower growth Slimmer body shape | Faster earlier growth Fatter body shape | Cheung et al. 2013 van Rijn et al. 2017 Atkinson 1994 Pörtner et al. 2001 Martin 1949 Árnason et al. 2009 Todd et al. 2008 Thorson 2015 |
Maturation | Earlier maturation | Earlier maturation | Tobin & Wright 2011 Wright et al. 2011 |
Reproduction | Lower reproductive output | Higher reproductive output | Yoneda & Wright 2005 Wootton et al. 2022 Planque & Frédou 1999 |
Mortality | Higher natural mortality (0.5) | Higher natural mortality (0.2) | Cheung et al. 2013 van Rijn et al. 2017 Pauly 1980 Then et al. 2015 Gislason et al. 2010 |
Scenarios of SST-induced effects on life-history parameters of a fish stock
Results
7
Fish stocks with temperature-induced reversal of selection pressures
Results: life-history traits
8
Temperature-induced reversal of selection pressures mostly occurs for maturation-related traits
Temperature-induced reversal of selection pressures mostly occurs for a single trait in a fish stock
occurs for at least one pair of SST-induced effect scenario and SSP-RCP scenario
occurs for at least one pair of SST-induced effect scenario and SSP-RCP scenario
Results: scenarios
9
Temperature-induced reversal changes non-linearly across scenarios of SST-induced effects on life-history parameters
More than half of temperature-induced reversals already occurs in low GHG emissions scenario
occurs for at least one life-history trait and in at least one SST-induced effect scenario
occurs in at least one SSP-RCP scenario
Summary
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 820989 (project COMFORT, Our common future ocean in the Earth system – quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points). The work reflects only the author’s/authors’ view; the European Commission and their executive agency are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information the work contains.
Insights
Methodology