Case Study in Transforming C2:

Australia and Plan MURA (Paper #59)

Dr Alexander Kalloniatis

Human & Decision Sciences Division/Agile C2 STaR Shot

Defence Science & Technology Group

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With: Paul Gaertner (DSTG, Aus)

• NATO-RTG-HFM-342 Overview
• What are we aiming for?
• Review of Plan MURA (Kalloniatis et al. 2021)
• MURA against the NATO-RTG-HFM-342 Challenges [Paper #58]
• Synthesis – how to make C2 Modernisation succeed.

Overview

• Foundational Driver: The Graveyard of Failed C2 Programs
• Successor to NATO-ET-184
• Wikberg, Many faces of C2, 26^th ICCRTS 2021
• Goal: ‘Code of Best Practice’ for Governing C2 Capability
• Future Strategic Environment (Jobidon & Bryant, 27^th ICCRTS 2022)
• Also at 28^th ICCRTS 2023: Wikberg et al. #25 ‘Coal-face Perspectives on C2 Capability Governance’
• Final Report due 2024

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NATO-RTG-HFM-342 Overview

• C2 Agility

What are we aiming for?

• C2
• Workforce
• Operational Information Networks & Applications (OINA)
• Infrastructure

Plan MURA

C2 The Queen of the LOEs

The Fifth Generation Headquarters

Yue, Kalloniatis, Kohn, 21^st ICCRTS 2016;

Kalloniatis, 23^rd ICCRTS, 2018

Kalloniatis, Kwok, Oxenham, Unewisse, 25^th ICCRTS, 2020

Kalloniatis, et al., 26^th ICCRTS, 2021

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Agile within HQs: Staff Cognitively move – not Products

Integrated Teams:

Shared Mental Models

Communities of Practice

• Theatre Fusion

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• IOTs tested

Status of MURA 2021

https://images.defence.gov.au/assets/Home/Search?Query=20210610adf8561311_010.jpg&Type=Filename

Headquarters Joint Operations Command opened their new Joint Operations Room (JOR) on 11 June 2021, christening the occasion with a ribbon cake cutting. The re-designed JOR still features the " monitor wall" as the centrepoint, but aims to ensure the right people are able to respond to incidents, as well as removing obstacles from collaboration.

Staff at work in the HQJOC Joint Control Centre at Bungendore, November 2011. Wikipedia.

• IOT ‘Agile reconfiguration’ tested multiple times, confirmed
• Further enhancement of Operations Room
• Incorporation of emerging Domain Expertise in design
• Enhancement of Battle-Rhythm
• Incremental incorporation of new Technologies (LLM-NLP, Tooling for Theatre Synchronisation “Phoebe”) into HQ processes
• Advice into subordinate JTFs/WoG Inter-agency
• New design of future Operations Room integrating Domains underway

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HQJOC/MURA/S&T since 2021

Annual:

• 2021
• 2022
• 2023
• …

• Measuring C2
• Challenge of using NATO C2 Reference Model
• Sociotechnical Dimensions
• Challenging of grappling with human and technological factors
• Managing C2
• Excessive focus on Platforms in CAPDEV
• Developing C2
• Overlooking ‘Change Management’
• Resistance to Change
• Culture, Tradition, Lack of Buy-In
• Lack of Organisational Learning
• C2 is victim of all Lessons ‘Learned’ processes

Against the Challenges – from NATO-ET-184

MURA Snapshot – Annual Survey

MURA 4 LoEs

HQJOC Director

Workforce & Culture

Testing to Break-point

J8 Operational Capability Assessment

Owner of the C2

“Physician Heal Thyself”

Mmm… I think I’ll order a review of them down there

That guy up there is part of the problem

I can demonstrate learning goals

That guy up there is part of the solution

• Top-down committee processes

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• Adversarial -- not collaborative --under resource constraints

Bureaucratic Nature of the CAPDEV Cycle

HQJOC J8 OCA:

• C2 Science is Transdisciplinary

Stove-Pipes of the (C2) S&T Ecosystem

C2

How are they managed?

• Platforms, Wires, Servers, … C4

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• Where’s the Human? The C2.

Stove-Pipes of the (C2) CAPDEV Cycle

https://c2coe.org/2023/03/07/c2-seminar-22-dr-alex-kallionatis-achieving-multi-domain-in-the-5th-gen-hq-video/

Integrated C4 S&T Program

‘Why the NATO Joint Staff System is not fit-for-purpose for the 21^st C’.

Australian War College Lecture 2022/23

I’m too busy for this!!

Headquarters

Achieving Co-Design in HQs

That’s OK. We’ll do it bit by bit

Annual:

• 2021
• 2022
• 2023
• …

• MURA LoE leads are the Weak Ties (Granovetter 1973) that overcome the designer weakness

Overcoming Conway’s Law

• Joint v Single-Service: Promotion criteria

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• Image Theory: What defines a Joint officer?

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• Social Identity Theory
• In/Out Groups

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“These different theories explain how culture is reinforcing of traditional ways of doing C2: the system is unable to transform itself because intrinsic biases, behaviours and practices condition how the change is undertaken. In a sense, the bureaucratic-cultural mindsets of the capability development and operational C2 systems do not really believe in their DNA the kind of behaviour they wish to realise. And so they always reproduce the C2 they know. “

Culture – As Emergent

STILL THE MISSING PIECE

Synthesis: Target Systems Analysis of the C2 Capability* Lifecycle

Concepts

Doctrine

JPME

HQs

Partner HQs: FVEYS

NATO

Indo-Pacific

CAPDEV

Environment

Force Design

Org Culture

R&D

In Sync with Exercise Cycle

* It’s a Sociotechnical System

Intervene only here: too slow to achieve change

Intervene only here: change momentum peters out

Engage with Capability Projects

Plan MURA

Intervention across whole system in targeted ways to achieve change effect

Time

Now

+ days-mnths-yrs?

15 years

10 years

5 years

Technology

Prototyping

Service/Jnt RTS

??

Engage with Doctrine Writers

SME input into Concept Dev

Inject course supplements on new concepts, new ways of doing business

Mil-Mil + Mil-Sci-Mil engagement; combined exercises/

experimentation

• MURA might still fail
• Weak Ties = Passionate people with Good Will = Failure Points
• Modelling the Agility and Collaboration we want the system to exhibit
• Multi-disciplinary: Commanders, Operators, (‘Hard’ and ‘Soft’) Scientists, Analysts, Engineers, Managers
• Top-down, Bottom-up, Middle-Out – all are critical
• Prioritisation model not fit-for-purpose – if you don’t do it all, then don’t do it at all.
• JPME pipeline and culture remain the vulnerable heart.

Conclusions

Here lies

Another Failed C2 Project

Proving that

The Problem with Fixing the C2

Is the C2 You’re Trying to Fix

And the C2 of Those Trying to Fix it.