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Market and Economic Update

November 2025

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Phillip J. Kosmala, CFA Managing Partner | Taiber Kosmala & Associates

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  • National footprint of institutional client relationships representing over $16 billion
    • Endowments, Foundations, Pensions & Family Offices

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  • Growing firm with long tenured client relationships

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  • Experienced investment committee averaging 20 years of experience across a diverse set of backgrounds

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  • 100% employee owned since inception. No parent, affiliates, or proprietary product.

Taiber Kosmala

Stability

Scale

Experience

Independent

Who We Are

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Active Asset Allocation

Informed Decision Making

Independent Research

Manager Intelligence

External Research

Enterprise Knowledge Management

  • Gather, warehouse, share, and process market intelligence
  • Over 20 independent research sources
  • Hundreds of manager due diligence meetings every year
  • Detailed bi-weekly investment committee meetings
  • Encourage natural curiosity in collaborative team-based environment

Internal Research Model

Economic

Inflation, fiscal/monetary policy, economic trends, labor markets, political considerations

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Fundamental

Valuations, earnings, credit spreads, volatility, sector leadership, interest rates

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Technical

Put/call ratios, moving averages, sentiment measures, fund flows

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Primary Goal

The primary goal of an investment program’s tactical asset allocation approach is to monitor shorter term market developments within the one to three year timeframe. While maintaining a sound risk based strategic long term posture, we monitor a wide array of fundamental, economic, and technical metrics to identify high conviction market inflection points to assist clients with routine rebalancing and opportunistic tilts on the portfolio.

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Active Asset Allocation

Macro Economic Indicators

Fundamentals and Valuations

Technicals and Sentiment

Portfolio Positioning

Economic Headwinds & Tail Winds

Money Supply

Monetary Policy / Liquidity

Lending Environment

Growth Trends

Leading Economic Indicators

Supply & Demand. Fear and Greed

Mutual Fund / ETF Flows

Moving Averages

Inflation Expectations

Volatility Indices

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What is Priced Into the Market

Earnings Growth

EBITDA Multiples

Balance Sheet Leverage

Credit Spreads

Profit Margins

Opportunistic and Risk Mitigation

Strategic Rebalancing

Tactical Rebalancing

Distinguish Tactical vs Secular

Manager Sector Exposures

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Market Update

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Source: TKA, MRB

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Liberation Day Six Month Anniversary

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Source: Strategas, Taiber Kosmala

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Bull Market’s 3 Year Anniversary – 70 % of Economists Wrong in 2022

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Source: Fidelity, Bloomberg

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Bull Market’s 3 Year Anniversary

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Source: X

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Economic Framework – Rare to Have a Bear Market Without a Recession

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Source: Ibbotson Associates, Oxford Economics

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Recessions Inextricably Linked to Fed Tightening & Corporate Profit Contraction

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Source: Alpine Macro

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Economic Outlook – Bullish Narratives Continue to Outweigh Bearish Narratives

Bullish Narratives 

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  • Monetary, fiscal, and regulatory policies including a more dovish Fed, business friendly deregulation, and the front end loaded deficit spending package are supportive for risk assets. 

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  • Resilient growth has persisted while both the level and rate of change in money supply (M2) remains very supportive. 

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  • The corporate earnings backdrop remains constructive with improving breadth, healthy fundamentals, and manageable tariff related profit margin headwinds to date. 

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  • Tariff tax policy uncertainty is fading with administration officials aggressively pursuing trade agreements and exercising more pragmatic flexibility with regard to goods exemptions. 

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Bearish Narratives 

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  • Labor market deterioration is evident.  Interrupting the downward trend can prove difficult and the impact on consumption presents challenges to maintaining healthy economic growth. 

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  • A Fed mistake of staying tight too long or loosening too quickly given above target inflation, resilient growth, and low unemployment. 

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  • Tariff taxes moving to multi-decade highs will pressure inflation, profit margins, and force a shift to higher cost production with implications on growth, trade, and consumption. 

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  • Market reliance on AI momentum coupled with skepticism surrounding circular AI driven capex, realized productivity enhancements, and associated valuation/earnings considerations.

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Recession Outlook

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Source: Schwab, Atlanta Fed

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Recession Outlook

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Source: Dallas Fed, Atlanta Fed

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Recession Outlook

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Source: Alpine Macro, MRB

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September FOMC Meeting Recap – Bias for Gradual Easing

Source: Morgan Stanley

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US Maintaining Ample Liquidity, eSLR Relaxation Could Amplify Growth (Lisa Cook’s Importance?)

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Source: Alpine Macro, Stratega, MRB

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US Maintaining Ample Liquidity – Another $160 Billion of Tax Refunds Coming in Early 2026

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Source: Strategas

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Resilient Consumer (with a Large Caveat)

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Source: Apollo, Bloomberg

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Margin/Profit Improvement Not Confined to Mag 7

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Source: Strategas

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Corporate America Continued to Spend Prior to OBBBA Despite Poor Sentiment – Trend Continues in 4Q

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Source: Strategas

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American Exceptionalism is Dead? Foreign Buyers Came Back as Trade Rhetoric Softened

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Source: Bloomberg, YCharts

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Economic Outlook – Risks to the Economy

1. Is the Fed Still Fighting the “Last War?”

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Source: EY Parthenon, WisdomTreeBianco

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Is the Fed Still Fighting the “Last War?”

Source: Strategas, BCA

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Source: BCA Research, Bianco Research

Economic Outlook – Risks to the Economy

2. Labor Markets Softening – Risk to the Consumer (70% of GDP)

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Tariff Impacted Sectors Seeing Job Losses

Source: Apollo

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Consumer Stress Worsening

Source: Apollo, Fitch

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Economic Outlook – Risks to the Economy

3. Not Out of the Inflation Woods Just Yet (Tariff Impact)…

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Source:Apollo, Macrobond

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Risks to the Economy

4. Fiscal Imbalances Will Become a Problem When Growth Slows

Source: MRB, Bloomberg

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Investment Themes

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Investment Themes – AI Not Ready to Replace Advisors (ie. Betterment Breaking in 2020)

Source: Strategas

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Investment Themes – Fixed Income

Maintain Short Duration Until 10 Year > 4.60%

Source: MRB

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Investment Themes – Fixed Income

Maintain Short Duration Until 10 Year > 4.60%

Source: TKA, Bianco

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Source: MRB

Investment Themes – Diversify Away From Mag 7 (Value, Equal Weight, Mid Caps Should Benefit)

Some Shades of 1999

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Source: Prof G Research, Augur Infinity, Strategas

Investment Themes – Diversify Away From Mag 7 (Value, Equal Weight, Mid Caps Should Benefit)

Some Shades of 1999

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Investment Themes – Diversify Away From Mag 7 (Value, Equal Weight, Mid Caps Should Benefit)

Source: Yardeni Research, Leuthold

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Investment Themes – Small Caps Need Lower Rates

Source: Alpine Macro

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Investment Themes – Power and Derivative Plays (Utes, MLPs, Nuclear all Attractive)

Source: Intel

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Investment Themes – Power and Derivative Plays (Utes, MLPs, Nuclear all Attractive)

Source: JLL, Greenstreet, BCA

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Investment Themes – Power and Derivative Plays (Utes, MLPs, Nuclear all Attractive)

Source: JP Morgan

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Investment Themes – International (Dollar Decline, Easier Policy Rates, & Cheaper Valuations)

Source: MRB

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Investment Themes – International: Loose Monetary Policy + Fiscal Expansion in EZ

Source: MRB

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Investment Themes – Loss of Confidence in Governments & Fiat Currencies:

Favorable for Crypto, Gold, Defense Spending, & Fiscal Deficit Plays (Inflation Hedges)

Source: Alpine

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Charts of Interest – Gold

Source: MRB, Alpine FT

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Investment Themes – Loss of Confidence in Governments & Fiat Currencies:

Favorable for Crypto, Gold, Defense Spending, & Fiscal Deficit Plays (Inflation Hedges)

Source: Alpine, Bianco

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Common Questions/Slides of Interest

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Charts of Interest – US Valuation Update

Source: Goldman Sachs, BofA

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Charts of Interest – US Valuation Update

Source: Alpine Macro

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Investment Themes – The US is Expensive But Also More Profitable

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Source: Goldman Sachs

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Investment Themes – Small Caps Need Lower Rates

Source: Alpine Macro

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Charts of Interest – Long Term Perspective on the Dollar

Source: Alpine Macro, Apollo

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Charts of Interest – Long Term Perspective on the Dollar

Source: Alpine Macro, Apollo

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Long Term Perspective – Geopolitical Events

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Source: Deutsche Bank, BP

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There Have Been Four Decade-Long Periods of No Gains

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Source: Kaplan, et al, Morningstar

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  • Statement Aggregation Tool

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  • Risk Tolerance Tool

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  • More Detailed Analytics

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  • Custom Proposal Templates

Proposal Generation

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Proposal Generation

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Proposal Generation

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Y-Charts Data Sharing

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    • Real-Time Model Data

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    • Real-Time Manager Data

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    • Comparison Reports

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    • Client Talking Points

Portfolio Analytics