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Preventing anthropogenic biorisk –�Paths and levers to impact diagrams

By Sam Hilton

DRAFT – not yet written up for sharing

Note: please download to view (does not display well in Google Docs)

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MISSUSE

ACCIDENT

Accidental release

Lab escape

Dangerous research

happens (non-malicious)

Does research

Individuals

Laboratory

Provides tools

DNA provider

Misuse

Dangerous research happens (deliberately)

Deliberate attack or use of bio weapons etc

Publishes research

Publisher

Funds research

Funder

Hostile state

Hostile state

Terrorist

Has influence

Transnational orgs

Countries

Global disaster

Has influence

Regulator

Our influence

Philanthropists

Think tanks / NGOs

Individuals

RESEARCH

USE

1. Actors on the path to disaster

Laboratory

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MISSUSE

ACCIDENT

Accidental release

Dangerous research

happens (non-malicious)

Education. Community norms. Code of practice. Culture. Etc.

Whistleblowing. Ethics committees. Certification. Etc.

Misuse

Dangerous research (deliberate)

Deliberate attack / weapon use

Publishing standards. Certification. Ethics committees. Etc

Culture of ethics. Add costs (taxes, insurance). Etc.

International agreements. Prevent arms races. Expand BWC remit. Diplomacy. Exchange programs. Etc

Has influence

Strengthen BWC. Better UN policy. Response & investigation plans. Etc

Global disaster averted

Has influence

Provide funding. Etc.

Policy research. Policy activism. Etc.

Activism community. BSL4 nimbyism. Etc

RESEARCH

USE

Bans on types of research. Regulator. Regulation. Fines. Data sharing. Etc

DNA screening. SecureDNA. Redteaming. Etc

2. Ways to influence

Lab safety / security / transparency requirements. Close labs.

Safeguarding. Non-proliferation. Anti-radicalisation schemes. Scientist security clearances. Etc.

Risk identification and plans. Set up regulators, oversight, etc

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MISSUSE

ACCIDENT

Accidental release

Lab escape

Dangerous research

happens (non-malicious)

Does research

Individuals

Laboratory

Provides tools

DNA provider

Misuse

Dangerous research happens (deliberately)

Deliberate attack or use of bio weapons etc

Publishes research

Publisher

Funds research

Funder

Hostile state

Hostile state

Terrorist

Has influence

Transnational orgs

Countries

Global disaster

Has influence

Regulator

Our influence

Philanthropists

Think tanks / NGOs

Individuals

RESEARCH

USE

1. Actors on the path to disaster

Laboratory