AI Deck Club · September 25, 2026
PREPARE FOR THE
BEAR!
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DECK CLUB · SEPT 25, 2026
AI 2040
The 15-Year Map: How AI Eats Every Occupation by 2040
Bill Fishkin (aka VonDoom) · March 24, 2026
NJ AI Hub, 619 Alexander Road, Princeton
AVERAGE OBSERVED AI COVERAGE
0.17
↓
0.68
2024 → 2040, per the deck
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TODAY
How this hour works
Didn't read it? You're in the right place.
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10-min overview
2
Hand vote
3
Guided discussion
4
Open floor
5
Networking until noon
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THE THESIS
“The gap between what AI can do and what it’s actually doing is the defining story of the next 15 years.”
— Bill Fishkin, AI 2040
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THE MAP IN ONE PICTURE
Spiky crown to near circle
Each spoke is one of 22 job categories. Farther out = more AI.
Source: AI 2040 hero chart. Dashed red = observed 2026 · dashed green = theoretical 2040 · solid = observed 2040. Colors adapted for this slide.
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WHO WROTE IT, AND HOW
A builder’s forecast
THE AUTHOR
THE METHOD
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THE STRUCTURE
Five eras, 2024 → 2040
2024–26
The Knowledge Blitz
2027–30
Agents Take the Wheel
2030–35
Robotics Eats the Physical World
2033–36
The Convergence
2036–40
The Human Layer
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ERA 1 · 2024 → 2026 · THE KNOWLEDGE BLITZ
Knowledge work roughly doubles
PHYSICAL WORK, 2026
Construction 0.08
Agriculture 0.10
Food 0.08
“barely moved”
Source: AI 2040, Era 1 (observed coverage, 0–1). The deck cites no data source.
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ERA 1 · 2024 → 2026
Knowledge work pushes out
Growth hugs the office spokes. Physical work stays near the center.
Source: AI 2040. Dark = 2024 observed · red = 2026 observed · dashed = theoretical ceiling.
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ERAS 2–3 · 2027 → 2035
Then agents and robots arrive
0.40
Transportation by 2030
self-driving approved
0.42
Production by 2035
humanoids in warehouses
0.35
Construction by 2035
robotic bricklaying, 3D printing
Era 2: “AI stops answering questions and starts completing workflows.”
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ERA 2 · 2026 → 2030
Agents take the wheel
The shape widens across management, sales and transportation.
Source: AI 2040. Dark = 2026 observed · indigo = 2030 observed · dashed = theoretical ceiling.
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ERA 3 · 2030 → 2035
Robots fill in the bottom half
Physical spokes finally move: production, agriculture, construction.
Source: AI 2040. Dark = 2030 observed · orange = 2035 observed · dashed = theoretical ceiling.
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0.90
average theoretical coverage across all 22 categories
ERA 4 · 2033 → 2036
The Convergence
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ERA 5 · 2036 → 2040 · THE HUMAN LAYER
Some gaps stay open, by choice
“None of these are technology failures. They’re human choices.”
Source: AI 2040, Era 5 table.
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ERA 5 · 2035 → 2040
Near the ceiling, with a few dents
Remaining dents: personal care, construction, farming, food.
Source: AI 2040. Dark = 2035 observed · green = 2040 observed · dashed = theoretical ceiling.
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THE HEADLINE NUMBERS
Four times more AI at work by 2040
0.17
Observed, 2024
0.68
Observed, 2040
0.91
Theoretical, 2040
Average AI coverage across 22 occupational categories, 0–1 scale.
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THE FULL JOURNEY
Fifteen years, five rings
Each ring is one checkpoint: 2024, 2026, 2030, 2035, 2040.
Source: AI 2040 full-journey radar, all five time points overlaid.
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WHO WINS?
Models
→ commodity
Interface
→ value
“The winners are the companies that own the interface between AI capability and human experience.”
The deck’s closing claim, aimed at builders and investors
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HAND VOTE
17% of AI’s potential at work today → 68% by 2040
Too fast
About right
Too slow
Hold that thought — we’ll come back to it.
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THREAD 1 · EXPERIENCE
The Knowledge Blitz
Where has AI gone from “could” to “does” in your work, and where is it still stuck?
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THREAD 2 · PREDICTION
Agents take the wheel
What would you need to see by the end of 2027 to believe agents finish whole workflows?
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THREAD 3 · TEST THE DECK
The physical world
What would make physical work catch up faster than the deck says, or never catch up?
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THREAD 4 · SO WHAT FOR STARTUPS
Where value lands
A founder pitches “we own the interface between AI and humans.” What do you ask?
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OPEN FLOOR
What the deck leaves out
Jobs & wages
It measures coverage, not headcount
Cost & energy
Who pays to close the gap?
Geography
A 20-person NJ firm vs a Fortune 500
Sources
No data cited for its numbers
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RE-VOTE
Did the room move?
Too fast
About right
Too slow
17% today → 68% by 2040
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WHAT’S NEXT
See you soon
Tue, Sep 29
Bar Night · Nassau Inn
Wed, Sep 30
Bias In, Bias Out · Trenton
Fri, Oct 23
Next Deck Club · NJ AI Hub
Nominate a deck: divot.org/list
Networking until noon · startupgrind.com/princeton