Rust Belt Rising
Post-DNC Poll
Survey of MI, PA, & WI
August 2024
Methodology
On behalf of Rust Belt Rising, Z to A Research conducted a survey of 1,631 likely November 2024 voters in Michigan (n=500), Pennsylvania (n=631), and Wisconsin (n=518) from August 23 - 26, 2024.
States were weighted to their share of the Electoral College vote.
Respondents were recruited into an online survey instrument via targeted online advertisements and SMS from a voter-file sample of likely presidential year voters.
The margin of error for the full sample is ±2.427%
The Political
Environment
Name ID & favorability
FAV | UNFAV |
36% | 56% |
45% | 51% |
| |
45% | 51% |
| |
44% | 43% |
38% | 48% |
| |
37% | 51% |
Post-DNC, Harris has closed the gap with Trump
RFK’s dropping off the ballot has marginal impact in game of inches
+1
+3
+1
Highly consolidated partisans & motivation gap has closed
% 8+ Motivation
96% Harris Voters
94% Trump Voters
The Issue
Environment
Top issue is the cost of living, but then dramatic differences by party
The top issue is the cost of living
Abortion still a deal-breaker for many, and a Democratic strength
US economy viewed poorly, driven by costs, personal finances rosier
US & personal economy drop-off driven mostly by GOP; white college grads and seniors more comfortable than people of color
The National Economy
Your Household Finances
Most Democrats believe Harris will have a new approach to economy
The Economy & Costs
Reducing cost of food, healthcare, taxes, housing top priorities
The election is about taking on corporate price-gouging and
who gets a tax cut, not inflation and the economic growth
Dems More | Reps More |
53% | 47% |
52% | 48% |
52% | 48% |
| |
50% | 50% |
50% | 50% |
50% | 50% |
| |
49% | 51% |
48% | 52% |
48% | 52% |
47% | 53% |
Democrats more trusted on Medicare & Social Security, though need
to do more to make the case to independents
In a contest of ideas, our policy offer is more popular than Trump’s
Messaging on Costs & Economic Issues
Top policies: taxing the rich / cutting middle class taxes, taking on corporate prices hikes & Rx drugs; youth the most focused on housing
Democrats have strong contrasts on policies, especially taxes
Defending Biden economy & “opportunity” economy resonate least
Voters, especially young ones, have heard about Project 2025;
top concern about it is the threat to Medicare & Social Security
Nancy Zdunkewicz
nancy@ztoaresearch.com
www.ztoareserch.com
281.685.6456