Daily Market Journal

Date:

24.07.2024 Wednesday

Yesterdays paths, projections

• The trade on ETH mentioned yesterday was stopped out. My trade on AKT from a couple days back also got stopped out.

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• Today we kind of saw the mix of the green and orange paths. Where we had a short squeeze but we also had a look at the lows and how the 65K area holds.

BTC

• What did Price do today?
• Price had a squeeze today morning, squeezing back up towards 67K
• Price got sold into, and we tested the 65K area by slightly frontrunning the 65K Pivot
• Price currently is around yesterdays lows, meaning that basically what we saw today was chop: take out the upside and the downside
• The result of people trying to tell the market where to go aggressively.
• Currently the H1 bands are red and price just tested the 200EMA on the 1H, might be a potential support area for price here above 65K

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Key Levels (Current BTC Price =65657)

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• Liquidity levels (stops resting):
• UP:
• 72061.7 (SEC ETH ETF news pump highs)
• DOWN:
• 53329.5 (05.07 friday’s lows)

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• HTF Opens
• 62766.1 (Monthly Open) price above = bulls in control
• 68138.0 (Weekly Open) clear resistance, price rejected it = bears in control
• 71363.0 (Highest monthly close, Pivot)

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• OB levels
• 51300 - 52050 (Bullish OB)

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• Pivots
• 58472.1 (2021 Febs High Pivot)
• 64986.1 (2021 Aprils High Pivot) price gapped through it with high volume, support until proven otherwise
• 67200 (67K Pivot) price lost it, retested it and is now below = resistance
• 69198.7 (2021 ATH + Pivot SR)
• 70K (round number Pivot)
• 71363.0 (Key ATH resistance Pivot)

Different exchange prices may differ . The below shown prices are form the Binance and Bybit Perps USDT chart

Volume Profile on the Daily chart

I drew up 2 Volume profiles:

1. From BTC’s current ATH to the deepest point we went in this current consolidation
2. From June’s highs to the current bottom (the recent selloff that broke range low)

Why am I looking at these Volume Profiles?

1. An overview of this consolidation phase, where the volume was distributed from the highest point all to the lowest point. The two key levels to watch are: 62800 VAL and 70K VAH.
1. A break of either of the above mentioned levels could determin the markets overall direction. Fake-outs could also be expected around these levels.
2. ​
2. This selloff we had since June was pretty much a down only grind, full with bullish cope. The people who bought on the way down thinking we find support at 60K are now underwater.
• Reclaiming the Value Area (marked with green) of this selloff could be a clear bullish sign from the market, signaling strength

Todays update: Price currently inside both Value Areas. Decent sign of the downtrend being over, and a sideways or up market to come next.

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CME Annualized Basis

The annualized basis is how much % one could make on an annualized basis with longing Spot and shorting Futures.

Historically anything below 0% is a huge buy, and anything around or below 5% is a strong buy.

If we see the Annualized Basis touch below 5% in bull market environment it is a no-brainer spot buy opportunity.

Current level:

11,53%

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BTC DATA

• OI, Funding, Spot premium:
• Since last fridays lows price up by near 4% OI up now by 5.9%. Yesterday evening price was at the same place but OI was 1% higher.
• CDVs all down, Spot CVD showing the most market sell pressure
• Funding right at neutral
• Spot premium present

Data pretty similar to yesterday. Doesnt hit me too bullish subjectively and also objectively. It is down trending data, would hold my opinion as yesterday that we’ll probably see more chop or down.

• Liquidation heatmap:
• Areas both sides, shorts are also now catching up with price as the bounces fail

Alts, BTC D

• Alts relation to BTC:
• BTC down a bit more than ALTs but nothing that significant
• ETH getting hammered in the ground, really weak compared to the market
• BTC D green day

USDT Margin Borrow Interest Rate = (Leverage in the system)

Borrow rates sideways. Below the pre-eth etf news levels.

BTC and ETH Open Interest

We can see the exchanges and the open OI on them. This can give us an insight of positions opening or closing, and the presence or absence of demand towards the two majors.

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BTC OI

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ALL OI: 35.43 B

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ETH OI

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ALL OI: 14.78 B

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All open OI

ETH/BTC ratio:

41.7%

Todays changes:

• 620mil decrease in total OI

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• 320mil decrease in CME OI
• 150mil decrease in Binance OI

Todays changes:

• 500mil decrease in total OI

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• 140mil decrease in Binance OI
• 200mil decrease in Bybit OI

BTC possible paths

1. Squeeze: Green path: We hold the 65K area as support, and we are able to push higher towards 67K again.

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• Holding the Pivot: Orange path: We hold the 65K Pivot and dont spend much time below it. We get above it and just chop and consolidate in this 66K area.

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• Losing the Pivot: Red path: Losing the pivot might open up the way for 63-64K to get attacked.

Stocks, Macro

• Gold had a try for a bounce yesterday but it got sold into. Now it’s still inside the daily bands which is good, but if it starts losing it then probably it still has some time to go until a breakout.

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• Dollar low volatility as it gets into the resistance of the bands.

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• S&P and NDQ big red days, NDQ also turned the daily bands red on today’s close. At best this could result in consolidation in this area between here and ATH.

Coins on the radar, Trade setups currently and for the future

• In 1 hour the 2D bands will turn green on BTC, the entry signal from my spot strategy.

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• I’m quite happy with the setup as it is signaling at a dip, which is better to buy than a top.

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• And also the bands are not far away from price, so even if it’s a loser it probably won't be more than around 4-5% of a loss.

Market conclusion / thoughts / future outlooks

• I quite like the setup currently. We are getting into the “is this rally going to fail?” mentality and thoughts.
• We arent even back at the daily bands but the whole sentiment feels just heavy and bad.
• This could be a decent dip in hindsight as it was the dip which you didnt want to buy (so it ended up being the dip that was the one to buy)
• Obviously not saying this will happen, but it could easily.

Further notes about

the market - if any

Yesterday there were quite

decent flows (but first day so

too early to tell if it was really

demand or just first day buying)

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Today so far we had a bit less

of outflows from grayscale,

interested to see how the others

behaved.

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ETH got smashed

today and is quite down heavily

compared to the rest of the

market.