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Climate Change in Irvington and the NYC Metro Region

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Cynthia Rosenzweig, Malgosia Madajewicz, and Maria Dombrov

Irvington Public Library

May 1^st, 2024

Source: The New York Times

Source: The Armour-Stiner Octagon House

Impacts and Resilience

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Overview

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Climate Impacts in the NYC Metro Region

Panel with Climate Scientists

Malgosia Madajewicz and Maria Dombrov

Group Activity

Mental Mapping of Local Climate Impacts

Questions and Discussion

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Source: NASA GISS, 2023

2023 was the Hottest Year on Record!

Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature

Compared to 1951-1980 Average

1880-Present

2023

1.7ºC

3.1ºF

Global Temperature

Compared to 1951-1980 Average

June, July, and August 2023

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	Mean Annual Temperature	Mean Annual Precipitation
Baseline (1981-2010)	50.87°F	45.8 inches
2030s	+2°F – +4.9°F	+0% – +10%
2040s	+2.8°F – +6.1°F	+0% – +13%
2050s	+3.2°F – +7.2°F	+0% – +14%
2060s	+3.6°F – +8.7°F	+0% – +17%
2070s	+4.2°F – +10.3°F	+0% – +19%
2080s	+4.8°F – +11.9°F	+2% – +22%
2100	+5.2°F – +13.9°F	-2% – +28%

Projected Increase in Temperature and Precipitation

Southern Hudson Valley

Mean annual temperature projections for the Southern Hudson Valley region. Temperature changes are shown in °F. Precipitation changes expressed as a percentage change. Results based on 35 GCMs and 2 SSPs.

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Sea level rise and increase frequency of severe hurricanes have the potential to:�

Increase risk of storm surge-related flooding�
Expand areas at risk of coastal flooding�
Increase potential loss of life and homes

Increase damage to infrastructure

Energy and transportation facilities

Create more nuisance flooding from high tides

	Hudson River
2050s	+12 – +27 inches
2080s	+21 – +45 inches
2100	+25 – +46 inches

Hudson River Flooding after Hurricane Irene

August 2011

Sea Level Rise and Coastal Storms

Projections for the Hudson River

From the New York State Climate Impacts Assessment (NYSCIA)

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Why Do We Care? Recent Extreme Events in NYC

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Sept. 7, 2023

Late summer heat wave took place over four days and was the hottest September on record

Sept. 30, 2023

Heavy rainfall caused extreme flooding, major disruptions in transportation

June 2023

Air quality index reached above 480 due to wildfires in Northeast and Central Canada

NASA GISS is working on a project to better predict how NYers will be affected by increasing extreme events in the future

Source: New York Post

Source: ABC7 New York

Source: National Weather Service

Recent Extreme Events in the NYC Metro Region

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Topics: Climate Science, Equity, Flooding, Futures and Transitions, Energy and Energy Insecurity, and Health

Major finding: “Addressing ongoing climate risks while fostering a more resilient, equitable, and adaptable future will require multiple levels of cross-sectoral investment, innovation, and transformation.”

Scan to access the NPCC4 website

https://climateassessment.nyc/

NPCC4 report launched on Friday, April 26^th!

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Impacts�

High temperatures create downward pressure on yields

Increasing droughts and heavy downpours affect year-to-year farmer livelihoods

High CO₂ increases productivity, but decreases nutrition quality

Adaptation�

Select and breed heat-tolerant crops

Increase soil organic matter

Promote and secure a diverse food basket to meet nutritional needs

Stone Barns &

Columbia Climate School

Partnership

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Malgosia Madajewicz

Economist

Maria Dombrov

Urban Research Associate

How did you become a climate scientist?��
What keeps you up at night?��
What solutions are you working on now?

Panel Discussion�with Malgosia Madajewicz and Maria Dombrov

Malgosia Madajewicz

Malgosia Madajewicz is an economist with expertise in adaptation to climate change, management of climate risks, program evaluation, and microeconomics with a focus on economic development. One of her main current projects is investigating how individuals and communities decide whether or not to take action to adapt in the context of coastal flooding in urban areas, focusing in particular on New York City. The project is testing how effectively co-developing an understanding of risk and costs and benefits of adaptations with residents of coastal areas motivates adaptation relative to simpler, less expensive approaches. The project will also examine how adaptation behavior diffuses within a community. Dr. Madajewicz is a member of the research team that comprises the Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN), which is a NOAA-funded RISA (Regional Integrated Science and Assessment). She is responsible for evaluating the impacts that CCRUN achieves through the team’s collaborative development of climate information with stakeholders. She is currently serving on the Westchester County Climate Task Force. She has been as an external member on the Community-Based Adaptation working group of the New York City Panel on Climate Change and has participated in a number of other task forces concerned with adaptation. She holds a PhD in economics from Harvard University and has previously served as an Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics and the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University.

Maria Dombrov

Maria Dombrov is a Research Associate II at the Climate Impacts Group, co-located at NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University's Center for Climate Systems Research, in New York City. Maria’s work focuses on understanding the implications that climate change and extreme events present to cities and their metropolitan regions around the world. Maria is the Global Coordinator of the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN), a research organization of almost 2,000 scientists, scholars, and expert practitioners, located in more than 150 developed and developing cities. Maria is also a Principal Editor and Project Manager of UCCRN’s Third Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3.3), which will be published by Cambridge University Press between 2023 - 2024. ARC3.3 is a peer-reviewed, global assessment report series that synthesizes the current state of climate change and cities. ARC3.3 offers new research in areas related to COVID-19, architecture, governance, urban climate science, finance, environmental justice, and more. Maria has an M.A. from Columbia University in Climate and Society with a concentration on scientific communications and a B.S. from Syracuse University in Biology with Focus on Environmental Science and a concentration on molecular plant biology.

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NYC Flood Vulnerability Index:

Current 100-year flood

Malgosia’s Current Work

Informing decisions and evaluating what works: From city to community scales

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Time Square March 2020, Erik Mencos Contreras

Learning from COVID-19 for Climate-Ready Urban Transformation

NYC Digital Twin includes 1) Extreme heat, health, and schools 2) Inland flooding and transportation 3) Coastal flooding, infrastructure, and health facilities

NASA GISS Advanced Information System Technology Project

In Press!

NYC stakeholder engagement

Maria’s Current Work

Major finding: Digitalization can be a tool to adapt to both COVID-19 and climate change.

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Group Activity

Mental Mapping of Local Climate Impacts

What types of climate extremes are affecting you most?

What are the impacts you are experiencing?
How are the impacts connected, compound, cascading?
How are the impacts connected to and/or amplified by neighboring communities?�

What solutions do you recommend for developing resilience to extreme climate events in Irvington?

What is Irvington already planning to do/doing about climate impacts?�
How is Irvington collaborating with others in developing plans and actions?

Can/should collaborations be expanded? How?

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Average annual temperatures, regional precipitation, maximum temperature extremes, and extreme precipitation are projected to increase across the South Hudson Valley.

Rising sea levels are projected for the Hudson River, with up to 4 feet of sea level rise by the 2080s.

Lots of work is already being done regionally on climate impacts and resilience, including NPCC4, Stone Barns/CCS, Flood Vulnerability Index, and Urban AIST.

But… We need to continue to work together to both mitigate and adapt to climate change going forward.

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Key Takeaways

Source: The New York Times

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Questions

+

Discussion

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Extra Slides

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Extreme Event Projections�Southern Hudson Valley

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Extreme Event	Baseline	2030s	2050s	2080s
# of days/year with maximum temperature at or above 90°F 95°F	18 4	29 – 57 7 – 29	34 – 73 19 – 38	48 – 108 18 – 76
# of heat waves/year Average length of heat waves (in days)	2 4	4 – 8 5 – 6	5 – 9 5 – 6	6 – 10 5 – 10
# of days/year with heat index at or above 85°F 95°F	33 5	51 – 78 14 – 33	63 – 97 20 – 50	75 – 128 30 – 91
Cooling Degree Days	903	1135 – 1596	1296 – 1992	1513 – 2889
# of days/year with minimum temperature at or below 32°F	105	67 – 90	37 – 82	8 – 74
Heating Degree Days	5181	4052 – 4713	3533 – 4482	2642 – 4117
# of days per year with rainfall exceeding 1 inch 2 inches 4 inches	15 3 0.2	15 – 17 4 – 5 0.2 – 0.2	15 – 18 4 – 5 0.2 – 0.2	15 – 19 4 – 6 0.2 – 0.6

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Average annual temperatures are projected to increase across the South Hudson Valley by 2.8 to 4.0 F by the 2030s, 4.1 to 6.1 F by the 2050s, and 5.7 to 10.0 F by the 2080s.

Regional precipitation is projected to increase by approximately 1 to 8 percent by the 2030s, 4 to11 percent by the 2050s and 7 to 17 percent by the 2080s.

Rising sea levels are projected for the Hudson River, with up to 4 feet of sea level rise by the 2080s

Maximum temperature extremes (hot days, heat wave frequency and duration) are projected to increase. Cold days are projected to decrease.

The number of days per year with extreme precipitation are projected to increase.

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Climate Projections for South Hudson Valley