Airpower, America & the 3rd Generation Wargame

Matt Caffrey

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Lt Col, USAFR

HQ AF/XOOC (CHECKMATE)

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Professor of Wargaming

Air Command and Staff College

Our Premise

• Evolutionary changes in doctrine and technology have made possible revolutionary effects, allowing us to win our nation's wars
• Faster
• With fewer casualties
• at a lower cost
• Hence facilitating a better state of peace

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• Such a capability will only occur (in the United States) if we convince the decision makers this is so

The Solution

• A wargame that demonstrates the full scope of air and space power
• Comprehensive
• Accessible
• To Reach
• Ourselves -- AFDC, PME
• The Joint Community -- NAF, XOOC
• Congress -- QDR, AF Labs
• The American People -- Commercial Version

Our Peril

• During the interwar years J.F.C. Fuller and B. H. Liddell Hart were essentially right about the optimum employment of armor in the next war.
• However, they failed to convince England they were right -- but succeeded in convincing Germany

Who Are The Decision Makers?

We The People...

It is imperative that the sovereign understands war� Sun Tzu

With democracy the people are now the sovereign� Hans Delbruck

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⇒ The people must understand war

The Congress Assembled...

What Skills are needed by a member?

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• Prerequisite Politician
• Economic Policy Economist
• Environmental Policy Life Sciences
• Law & Order Criminology
• National Defense ???

Reaching Congress

Wargames present defense options in a context all members of Congress can understand:

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• Casualties
• Cost
• Time
• Victory and Defeat

Problem Widely Recognized

Legacy models do not show independent effects of airpower

Gen Fogleman

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Wargames that undervalue airpower will in time under-fund airpower

Maj Gen Link

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...surge in combat effectiveness was not matched by equal progress in analytic tools

Dr. Rebecca Grant

Long Recognized in PME�“We need...

...to wargame from peace to peace.

Col Warden

ACSC Commandant 92/95

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... wargames as comprehensive as our curriculum

Brig Gen Brooks

ACSC Commandant 95/96

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.. to take the reality out of virtual and put it into simulation

Brig Gen Drennen

ACSC Commandant 96/present

The 19th Century

War

The 19th Century

Wargames

War

Human Factors

The 20th Century

War

Wargames

The 20th Century

War

Wargames

Airpower

Info Ops

Insurgencies

NBC

Systems Effects

Human Factors

Space

MOOTW

The Solution

Evolve the State of the Art

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• 1^st Generation - mind on mind - strategy

The Solution

Evolve the State of the Art

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• 2^nd Generation - force on force - attrition
• 1^st Generation - mind on mind - strategy

The Solution

Evolve the State of the Art

• 3^rd Generation - system on system - effects
• 2^nd Generation - force on force - attrition
• 1^st Generation - mind on mind - strategy

The Solution

Field a truly comprehensive wargame, that will depict:

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• Adversaries and Ourselves as Systems
• Human Factors
• Decision Loops/Turn Cycle Harmony

Warden’s Five Rings

Essentials

Infrastructure

Population

Forces

Leadership

The Enemy as a System

Adversaries as Systems

Enemy

• C3I (Info/morale)
• Transformation
• Transportation
• Resources
• Military

Coalition

• C3I (Info/morale)
• Transformation
• Transportation
• Resources
• Military

Each Entity as a System

Entity

• C3I
• Info
• Morale
• Transformation
• Transportation
• Resources
• Military

Fighter Wing

• WOC
• Intel/training state
• Morale
• Maintainers
• Fighters
• POL, Munitions...
• Security Police

Human Factors

Human factors influence each level of war

• Strategic: decisions of war or peace are political decisions
• Operational: IO/IW, deception has been decisive
• Tactical: Crew fatigue, training, morale have all played key roles

The Decision Loop

Col Boyd’s vision of how decisions work

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Observe

Orient

Act

Decide

Nested Decision Loops

Strategic

Operational

Tactical

NCA

Proposal

• Create SOW for 3rd Generation engine
• Advertise to Rec Software Industry
• Select three finalists to go to “Prototype”
• Conduct “fly off” between the three
• Select final engine
• Use Historical data and strategies to “predict the past”

DoD vs Commercial WGs

Analysis Training PME Prof Dev Recreation

Top Down

History Based

Wargames

Bottom Up

OR Based

Models

Relative Spending

Billions of $

Spending on Modeling & Sim

Billions of $

3rd Generation Wargame Requirements

• Comprehensive

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• Effective

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A commercial design can meet all these requirements

A Commercial Design�Can Fit Requirements

Comprehensive

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• System effects
• Human Factors
• Nested Decision Loops

A Commercial Design�Can Fit Requirements

Effective

• Fast to:
• Learn World Class
• Modify Common Feature
• Execute Near Instantaneous
• Accessible Run on notebook comp
• Unbiased NOT Air Force Design
• Affordable $ between Zero & 6M

Predicting The Past

Commercial Cost Range

$0 Publisher decides to produce what we want

+ Free

- Zero control

$6M Publisher sees zero consumer potential in design ($6M is opportunity cost of consumer product not produced)

+ Total control

- Highest cost

- May get publishers second team

How Much $

Award to historian

Award to 3 finalists

Award to winner

Award for 2 contemporary dbs

Award for enhancements

Total

$80K

3 x $200K

$500K

$260K

$250K

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$1,750K

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How Much $ - by FY

FY 97 80K Funded

FY 98 660K Unfunded

FY 99 540K Unfunded

FY 00 470K Unfunded

Projected M&S Milestones

Projected Customers

• NAF Strategy Cells, AF/XOOC, CinC/JTF
• AF/Quadrennial Review
• Air Force Doctrine Center
• Air University
• ACSC & AWC
• Resident & Distance Learning Programs
• Air Force Laboratories
• Public Information - Commercial Edition

Indirect Impact

Top Down History Based Models

Bottoms up OR Based Models

Analysis Training PME Prof Dev Recreation

End State

• Military possesses user friendly comprehensive conflict/campaign wargame for; Education, COA exploration, and tech demonstration
• Taxpayers have three + products available that more accurately portrays conflict and the impact of airpower
• Link is forged with dynamic industry
• “Core” engines impacted

Briefing Recipients

• Col Hester, XOOC
• Col Westenhoff, QR
• Maj Gen Link, QR
• Col Peterson, XOO
• Col Allen, XOM
• Col Dickey, CADRE/WG
• Lt Col Nutz, WL*
• Lt Col Nelson, AFDC*
• Lt Col Weaver, OSD
• Lt Col Riggins, XOOC

• Maj Karika, XOCA
• Maj Fuller, XOOC
• Maj Cole, ESC/AVM
• Mr. Noss, XOCW+
• Mr. Hambleton, XOCA+
• Mr. Daly, ESC+
• Col Stimpson, CADRE/WG
• Col Dickson, ACSC/DE*
• Col Drennan, ACSC/CC
• Col Hylton, CADRE/CC

Briefing Recipients

• Lt Col Kelly, XOOC
• Col Repko, XO
• Col Clark, CVSM
• Dr. Grant
• Col Gordon, XOCA
• Lt Col Noetzel, XOCD
• Maj Schlapkohl, AFDC
• Col Shaffer, AFSAA

Next Steps

• Contract for Data
• Secure Funding for FY98/99
• Build Evaluation Team
• CHECKMATE/ACSC
• SAAS/SAMS/SAWS/NWC
• AFSAA/CAA/N81
• XOCW/XPXC